Jets 2023 Predictions: If Only They Had This Roster Last Season
After a long summer of hype, the most anticipated Jets season in more than a decade is on the horizon. Gang Green, with their newly-acquired, Hall of Fame-bound quarterback Aaron Rodgers firmly in command of the process, will open their 2023 campaign with a nationally-televised Monday Night Football contest at what surely will be a raucous MetLife (or should I bow to Rodgers and start calling it “JetLife”?) Stadium.
Of course, anyone who has been rooting for this franchise should know by now that they shouldn’t be counting any chickens before they are hatched. New York’s early-season slate is a bear, starting with three-time defending AFC East champion Buffalo in the opener. The Bills are just one of four teams among the Jets’ first six opponents that won at least 12 games last season. Among their first ten games, seven are versus teams that qualified for the playoffs.
So, if you’re one of those who have their “They need time to gel” placards ready for deployment, understand that this is not the season where you want the Jets to fall into a hole. If they were in the NFC, sure, maybe their talent could rise to the top following a slow start. This conference, though, is loaded. Who knows, ten wins might not be enough to guarantee a spot in the tournament.
Unlike the mission in so many prior seasons, when “playing meaningful games in December” was deemed a success, for this one, the bottom line will actually be the bottom line. It’s not enough that Rodgers by himself has made them watchable after many years of eye aversions. The Jets traded multiple picks, including next year’s first-rounder, for Rodgers to help them break a 55-year Super Bowl curse. They’re all in on this season. A failure to earn their first playoff berth in over a decade would be an unmitigated disaster.
Yet it’s quite possible.
What should Jets fans realistically expect this season? I teased one of my predictions, that Rodgers will place in the top five QBs in throwaways, in a prior post (Jets Fans Hope Rodgers Has Plan To Stay Safe In Preseason Finale--And Beyond (substack.com)). Here are four others from my crystal ball:
1) Rodgers will break Joe Namath’s record for passing yards in a season
Some folks forget that Joe Willie accomplished his feat of 4,007 yards passing in a 14-game season in 1967. What a sorry state this franchise has been in that no other Jets QB has since breached that barrier, one that nine NFL QBs surpassed just last season (with Kansas Coty’s Patrick Mahomes topping 5,000 yards), even as the league expanded to the current 17-game schedule.
Rodgers has already done it 10 times in his 18 seasons in Green Bay, including four consecutive years before the streak ended in an injury-diminished 2022 campaign. So long as he’s healthy, not a guarantee for an athlete turning 40 in December, he will get there again.
If you asked me about this a few months ago, I would have had reservations. Under Head Coach Robert Saleh, the Jets have often employed backwards thinking with regard to their offensive principles. However, by all accounts, Rodgers has been given quite a bit of ownership in the offense’s direction by his coordinator and good buddy Nathaniel Hackett, and Rodgers doesn’t seem the type to settle for all the second-and-9s and long third-down conversions that would be destined to come his way using Saleh’s previous conservative game plans.
Some might not think that’s such a good thing, that Rodgers might not flourish as much by going somewhat rogue. For this purpose, though, that’s not the point. If he feels he has to, he’s going to throw the football enough to break the franchise record.
2) The Jets will see their touchdown red zone efficiency rise to 60%.
After five seasons of bottom-feeder rankings in this category, including a 31st-place finish in 2022 at a meager 43.5%, the Jets will turn the red zone into gold, as Hackett termed it in HBO’s “Hard Knocks” series.
I think this will be one of the most important areas where Rodgers’ presence will be profoundly felt. His ability to process quickly, from pre-snap to reading defenders’ leverages, and then his accuracy in tight windows will help New York turn many of those missed opportunities that ended in field goals into touchdowns.
Believe me, I’m not basing this on his gorgeous touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson in the meaningless preseason finale against Giants backups last week. Rodgers has always been fantastic in the red zone. According to Jets X Factor, he has thrown 84 touchdowns versus just 4 interceptions inside the red zone since 2020, completing 64.7% of his passes, the second-best mark in the league in that span. Even in a down year marred by a right thumb injury, Rodgers finished tied for ninth in the NFL with 17 red zone touchdown passes last season.
3) Beware the variance in NFL defense
Stop with the 1985 Bears comparisons. New York’s defense could still be very good, maybe better in some respects than last season, but their numbers won’t reflect it. The Jets will fall out of the league’s top 5 in both points and yardage allowed.
Year-to-year NFL defense variance is inevitable given the changes in schedule strength. Add in the change in how the games will flow with Gang Green now able to present a capable offense each week and we should be seeing higher-scoring affairs as compared to last season. With Rodgers at the Jets’ helm, opponents won’t feel as comfortable taking the air out of the ball as easily as they did when they took leads against any of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, or Mike White armed on the other side.
As much as Jets fans want to buy into the potential of New York’s deep front-four pass rush, today’s QBs are expertly trained to counter it with quick releases and scrambles. The Jets will face three of the top five rushing leaders among 2022 quarterbacks within their first seven games.
The Jets’ D’s ascension last season had as much to do with luck as competence—they faced a slew of backup quarterbacks and their best players, especially their awesome cornerback trio of Sauce Gardener, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II, rarely left the field.
Of course, if the Jets now end up winning these games, no one should care what the stats say.
4) Bet the under
There are just too many things that have to go right for the Jets to top 9.5 wins, the current over/under line. Their offensive line remains a massive question mark, with the potential to be the proverbial piano on the back of a racehorse. Saleh might have the Jets beat writers under his thumb, but he is untested under this bright of a spotlight. And, of course, injuries to key personnel can derail even the most highly-regarded teams. The Jets happen to be extraordinarily top heavy at many positions, which makes them extra susceptible to adversity from relying on next men up.
With Gang Green’s brutal early-season schedule, it will be a struggle to stay in the hunt. If only the Jets had this roster last season.
Prediction: 9-8