Jets Fans Hope Rodgers Has Plan To Stay Safe In Preseason Finale--And Beyond
Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
Only four more quarters of preseason slop to endure, Jets fans. Ordinarily, the final exhibition is the least appetizing, as NFL head coaches are terrified of losing key personnel to injury so close to the regular season opener.
The Jets, though, promise to be anything but ordinary this season, so when the New York Post’s Brian Costello broke the news on Sunday that star quarterback Aaron Rodgers would make his New York debut in Saturday’s preseason finale versus the Giants, no one was all that stunned.
Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll has already stated that Rodgers’ appearance won’t affect his decision to rest his starters for the regular season made the Jets’ leak more curious, for, as one beat writer put it, players on the Giants’ bubble might be more likely to go for a big pop on the tape that would put Rodgers at more risk than necessary. However, the combination of the extra week off that was installed when the league cut back to three preseason contests two years ago plus Rodgers’ ownership of his work schedule probably carried extra weight in Gang Green’s calculations.
I get it—Rodgers, who hasn’t taken a preseason snap since 2018, wants to at least get a feel for his new club after 18 years in Green Bay, even if regular season play is amped up from what he’ll see on Saturday. It would be shocking if he played more than a series or two. Still, with the Jets’ offensive line in flux due to injuries, the only acceptable outcome on Saturday is that Rodgers comes out of it in one piece.
Don’t be fooled by the Jets’ relatively competent pass blocking stats (just 2 sacks and 16th-ranked pressure percentage allowed) through their first three preseason affairs—the concerning reports from their joint practice sessions with Carolina and Tampa Bay are probably more indicative of where the unit stands than what we see in the games against backups playing mostly vanilla defenses.
That means even a four-time league MVP with Rodgers’ savviness can’t eliminate all risk. Anything can happen out there, as Jets fans are well aware given the ignominious injury history of Jets QBs during preseason games—before Zach Wilson tweaked his knee in an unwise scramble attempt against Philadelphia a year ago, the Giants knocked out Chad Pennigton and Mark Sanchez in the 2003 and 2013 “Snoopy Bowls”, respectively. Gulp, it’s 2023.
Fortunately, Rodgers excels in one area that might allay Jets fans fears—he knows when to throw the ball away. In fact, though I usually wait a few weeks to make bold predictions, here’s a sneak peek: Rodgers will finish in the top five in quarterback throwaways this season.
As he’s aged and his legs can’t escape rushers like they used to, Rodgers has placed seventh, ninth, first, second, and first in the most throwaways category over the last five seasons, per ProFootbasllFocus.com. In 2018, when Rodgers said he played all year on a fractured leg, PFF cataloged him with 51 throwaways, a whopping 21 more than the next man on the list. In addition, Rodgers has shaved a few fractions off his average time-to-throw metrics. His releases over the last two seasons were the quickest of his career, per PFF.
In general, the throwaways have contributed to Rodgers doing a decent job at avoiding sacks, though last season was a bit of a blip—he ranked 17th with a 20.4% sack rate when pressured among the 32 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks under duress, per PFF. Rodgers backup Zach Wilson was only marginally worse (20.7%) during his nine starts for the Jets last season. In his best seasons, Rodgers’ sack rate was in the mid-teens.
These tools in Rodgers’ box will come in handy on Saturday, since it’s anyone’s guess as to who will be blocking for him. Left tackle Duane Brown will reportedly (finally) come off the PUP list this week after rehabbing his surgically-repaired shoulder, but we should expect him to be eased into things, not thrown into the fire of a meaningless game. Starting guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Laken Tomlinson have been out of practice for the last few weeks while dealing with ailments. And who knows what the Jet have planned for fragile Mekhi Becton this week after surviving 28 offensive snaps in his first live reps as the backup right tackle against Tampa Bay on Saturday,
Billy Turner and Max Mitchell have held up reasonably well at tackle in their limited preseason runs as measured by PFF’s grading system and underlying stats (no pressures allowed), but all accounts had them getting mauled when going against 1s in practices, both internal and the joint sessions. How much should Jets fans trust them in a more heated contest versus a rival, even if it will be against backups?
We’ll just have to cross our fingers that Rodgers will channel Eddie Martel of “The Replacements” when necessary on Saturday, heaving the ball to the sidelines at the hint of pressure. He knows it’s better to live another down than to risk a negative play—or worse.