In a Miraculous Role Reversal, Jets Turn Odds Upside Down In Final Two Minutes To Upset Browns
For the first 13 minutes of Sunday’s fourth quarter in Cleveland, the Jets reverted to all the behaviors that have had fans pull their hair out for most of the past decade. A close game was slipping away because of egregious mistakes like drops, undisciplined penalties, and a Head Coach whose irrational faith in his defense is part of his DNA.
So, when Browns running back Nick Chubb scampered around left end past the first down marker as the clock ticked toward the two-minute warning, you could feel Jets fans’ collective heads sinking. They knew that once Chubb hit the ground, Cleveland was three kneel-downs from victory. Yogi Berra weighed in from heaven—it was over.
Only Chubb never hit the ground; instead, he finished the play by reaching paydirt to put the Browns up, 30-17. Even when kicker Cade York pushed the extra point wide right, ESPN’s model still had the Browns holding a 99.8% expected win percentage probability.
What ensued was a classic reversal of fortunes tale and a classic example as to why the NFL kicks the snot out of all other professional sports when it comes to watchability. The Jets, who hadn’t won a game in September since the 2018 opener, an NFL-record-tying streak of 13 consecutive games, somehow roared back to capture this one, 31-30, stunning not just everyone who had the Browns at minus-6.5, but the entire football world.
Countless times in my life, it’s been the Jets who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. Worse, it was typically accomplished in the most inconceivable manners. No lead was ever safe until the final gun went off.
How improbable was Sunday’s comeback? Per ESPN, NFL teams had won the last 2,229 games since 2001 when leading by at least 13 points in the final two minutes. The win probability model barely budged even after Jets quarterback Joe Flacco took advantage of a hilarious busted Browns coverage that let him hit wide receiver Corey Davis for a 66-yard touchdown with 1:32 remaining to make it a one-score game--Cleveland’s expected win percentage dropped just a couple of ticka to 97.3%.
That’s because the Jets first needed to recover an onside kick, which had a 16% overall success rate last season but is rarer when the return team knows it’s coming. Except Braden Mann, who earlier executed a perfect out pass to gunner Jeff Smith on the right sideline to convert a fourth down on a fake punt, squibbed it left and got the ball to bounce askew as Jets safety Will Parks, called up from the practice squad the day before the game, not only nailed Cleveland’s “hands team” member Amari Cooper as the ball arrived, but had the presence of mind to save it from going out of bounds so teammate Justin Hardee could pounce on it.
OK, the Jets at that point obviously had a chance to steal one, but only a 25% chance, per the model. They were relying on Flacco, 37, to deliver a 53-yard scoring drive in 1:20 without any timeouts. He went into the game with a record of 2-14 in his last 16 decisions as a starter, with his last win coming in 2019.
Up until the two-minute warning, Flacco accumulated all of 184 yards passing, mostly on quick throws so that his immobility against Cleveland’s elite pass rush wouldn’t disrupt the possessions. Going forward, any tackle on a short pass in the field of play would run off of at least 10 crucial seconds.
On the game-winning drive, though, the Jets’ good fortune continued. A couple of passes thrown in the middle of the field were dropped, stopping the clock, while the Browns, in deep zone coverages, allowed New York’s receivers to get out of bounds fairly easily. Flacco marched the Jets to Cleveland’s 15-yard line and faced a third-and-ten with 30 seconds remaining. Again, the oddsmakers refused to believe in miracles, with the Browns still holding a 75% win probability in that spot.
Only the models never got wind of what Jets rookie receiver Garrett Wilson can do. The Ohio State product’s exquisite route-running conjured up comparisons with Minnesota’s All-Pro Justin Jefferson. Early in the second quarter, Wilson caught his first NFL touchdown pass on a 2-yard fade from Flacco on a third down. Normally a receiver isn’t that wide open on those situations, but Wilson faked Browns cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. out of his shoes with an inside-outside move.
Wilson made the game-winner look easier than it probably was, as he streaked up the middle past the linebacker level and caught a Flacco dart at the goal line in front of the safeties to waltz into the end zone. Greg Zuerlein, who missed an extra point in the 24-9 Week 1 loss to Baltimore, gave New York a 31-30 lead with 22 seconds remaining.
While this was now Gang Green’s game to lose, who had little-used safety Ashtyn Davis sealing it with an interception on their Bingo card?
This was easily the most incredible Jets win since the Monday Night Miracle over the Dolphins in 2000. While it’s obligatory for fans to feel good about it after all the pain and suffering they have endured, let’s not pretend that it will be transformational. At best, it highlighted the team’s resolve as opposed to its process.
When Head Coach Robert Saleh had the Jets punt on a fourth-and-eight from their own 10-yard line with 2:40 remaining, he should have had no expectation of ever getting the ball back. How could he possibly have been banking on his defense forcing a three-and-out at that juncture? As it were, Cleveland reset the down markers twice and were on pace for another conversion when Chubb got greedy.
After that, it was like a Twilight Zone episode, where all the franchise’s past mishaps were atoned for in a two-minute span. It was like the Jets were playing the Same Old Jets.