If Rodgers Is Jets’ Target, They Chose Wrong O.C. For Wrong Reasons
If the Jets really brought in Nathaniel Hackett to be their offensive coordinator because they believe it will help them acquire Green Bay’s future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, then it would break the dumbness scale previously set when they hired Adam Gase as head coach four years ago because Peyton Manning convinced ownership to do it.
However Rodgers feels about a coach he worked with for three of his 18 NFL seasons, I highly doubt that it would impact:
A) Whether he even wants to play another season. For all we know, he might want to hang it up and work in TV. In a recent spot on the Pat McAfee show, he said he hasn’t made up his mind about next season.
B) Where he wants to play. The Jets aren’t the only team that could use a QB of his stature, even if his skills are diminishing. Like I wrote about Derek Carr in my previous post (Trading For Carr Would Be A Lemon For Jets (substack.com)), there will be a number of factors that will sway Rodgers to a new destination, assuming…
C) Whether Green Bay wants to trade him. Sorry, but Rodgers isn’t a free agent. The Packers might want to give it one more go with him because, well, they don’t have better options. There was a report that said that the organization definitely won’t trade him to a team in their conference, so some took it as a sign that AFC teams can start their bidding. It’s more complicated than that. Green Bay would incur a $40 million dead money salary cap charge should they trade Rodgers—unless they wait until after June 1, in which case they can carve the charge into 2023 and 2024.
D) Whether it’s worth it to make a trade. How much is Jets General Manager Joe Douglas willing to expend, in both actual assets like draft capital and cap space, to obtain a short-term QB solution? Then there’s the matter of a $58.3 million cash outlay that Rodgers will be due as bonuses by the start of next season as part of the reworked contract any new team will inherit. This was done to defer the massive cap charges into future years. Of course, those hits will come due, even if the organization is able to split it over two seasons, and Rodgers will from here on out be considered a year-to-year proposition. Should the Jets part with a first-round pick, at minimum, for that?
If we give the Jets the benefit of the doubt with regard to the flawed Rodgers Theory, Hackett certainly shouldn’t have been their first choice. Yes, he has experience, but it’s not really good experience.
Hackett just flamed out before completing his first season as Denver’s head coach, where he led the league’s lowest scoring offense—half a point per game worse than New York’s. He voluntarily surrendered play=calling responsibilities to QB Coach Klint Kubiak in Week 11 after wrecking the reputation of nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback Russell Wilson.
Previously, Hackett, the son of former Jets OC Paul Hackett, worked in Jacksonville for three seasons, where he overlapped with Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh. The Jaguars went to an AFC Championship Game in 2017 after leading the NFL in rushing, but it was sandwiched by two of the lowest-performing attacks in the league—they ranked 26th and 29th in expected points added per play in 2016 and 2018, respectively.
Maybe, with the help of new Offensive Line coach Keith Carter, Hackett will help the Jets in their run game efficiency, but I don’t trust that we will see much of a transformation from previous principles established by Saleh and former O.C. Mike LaFleur, who parted ways with the Jets after two lousy seasons. Like LaFleur, Hackett is a West Coast offense disciple who likes to run a lot on early downs. Remember, it was Matt LaFleur, Mike’s brother, who called plays in Green Bay.
Hackett also doesn’t have a track record of developing young quarterbacks. Even in his best year, Blake Bortles, the Jaguar’s 2014 No. 3 overall pick, finished 16th in rbsdm.com’s EPA-plus-completion percentage over expected metric in 2017 before dropping to 31st the subsequent season. He never started an NFL game thereafter. The book on Green Bay’s Jordan Love is far from written, but if the No. 26 overall pick from 2020 was surely ready to take the wheel in his third season, the Packers’ decision on Rodgers would be much less debatable.
The above point was made because the Jets, even if they connect on their swing for a veteran QB for next season, will still have to look for their future one. If they really still believe in Zach Wilson after he put forth two of the worst seasons in high draft pick history, well, that’s as dumb as the premise that Rodgers will surely fly to New York because they hired Hackett.