Trading For Carr Would Be A Lemon For Jets

Quarterback Derek Carr, by all accounts, including himself, has played his last snap for the Raiders. Whether he is traded or cut by Las Vegas, he will be wearing a different uniform next season than the one he donned since he was selected in the second round (No. 36 overall) of the 2014 NFL Draft.

Carr, who turns 32 in March, has two years remaining on the 3-year, $120.5 million extension he signed in 2022. On February 15, about $40 million ($33 million in 2023, $7.5 the following season) of the remaining contract balance becomes guaranteed.

The Raiders reportedly wish to avoid paying those exorbitant amounts, so there’s some pressure on them to get a deal done in the next few weeks. Carr, however, has a no-trade clause in his contract.

So, to paraphrase a line from “Blazing Saddles”, why in the name of Wide World of Sports would Carr choose to be traded to the Jets, unless New York General Manager Joe Douglas was the only one bidding on his services?

Like star wide receiver Tyreke Hill, who turned down the Jets in favor of Miami when Kansas City put him on the trade market last offseason, Carr has a host of reasons (weather, New Jersey taxes, the historical organizational dysfunction, etc.) to look for employment elsewhere. Carr is California raised—ok, Northern California, where he attended Fresno State—but according to ESPN’s Rich Cimini, he has a 2-9 career record, with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, when the game-time temperatures were 40 degrees or lower.

Which is why the Jets should also be wary of Carr, who is coming off his worst season since his rookie year in terms of completion percentage, interceptions, and quarterback rating. The advanced stats were also disappointing, especially since he was given stud wide receiver Davante Adams as a weapon this season. The big-plays to Adams helped Carr’s expected points added per play, but he also sported a minus-3.0 completion percentage over expected, according to rbsdm.com, which ranked 29th among the 33 NFL QBs with at least 250 snaps. He also placed 28th in ProFootballFocus.com’s grades on passes that traveled at least 20 air yards. For comparison purposes, Jets QB Zach Wilson, who absolutely sucked this season, ranked 32nd in both categories.

Carr, unlike the constantly frazzled Wilson, actually performed decently when under pressure, which was on 36% of his dropbacks, the 10th highest rate in the league last season, per PFF. But he is not what you’d call a mobile quarterback, with just 24 rush attempts in 15 games before Las Vegas pulled the plug on him.

The Raiders may be as much of a hot mess organizationally speaking as the Jets, but their willingness to so quickly reset their QB position with a No. 7 overall pick should speak volumes about how they view Carr’s ability to lead a team to their ultimate goal.

And that’s what the Jets as a franchise never gets. Could they have qualified for the playoffs had they had someone like Carr calling signals this season as opposed to three of the worst-rated QBs in the league? Well, duh. But what would that have meant if Carr, based on his recent performances, will never measure up to New York’s competitors, be it Josh Allen (Buffalo), Kansa City’s Patrick Mahomes, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow, or even Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence—all of whom figure to be sticking around the AFC for many, many years?  Carr has one playoff game under his career belt, a 26-19 loss at Cincinnati a year ago.

The goal isn’t to play “meaningful games in December” or even simply to make the playoffs. It’s to win a Super Bowl for the first time since 1969.

The best way to do that, unless you’re loaded everywhere else so you can go all in like the Rams last year and “F#@& them picks”, is to draft and develop a franchise QB. As every Jets fan painfully knows, New York has tried that multiple times in the last 25 years, only to be gravely disappointed.

That doesn’t mean they should scrap that process. How about hiring a head coach with a proven record of QB development and play calling first, huh? That way, not only would it increase the odds of their young quarterback’s success, but also, if the guy does make that happen, he can’t bolt like a hot offensive coordinator would.

For 2023, I wouldn’t mind if the Jets signed a veteran free agent like San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo or, if it comes to it, Carr for excessive guaranteed money--for one season only. But they also need to use another high pick on a QB too, preferably one that has legitimate dual-threat capability.

NFL teams have control over a first-round pick for five years-plus with tags, so it’s not bad form to have him take a gap year watching and learning how the pro game works. Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts was a late second-round pick and didn’t start until Week 13 of his rookie season, with the horrible Carson Wentz as QB1. Now Hurts is about to lead his team to a Super Bowl in Year 3. Do you think the Eagles were upset that they didn’t maximize his rookie contract value?

What the Jets shouldn’t be doing under any circumstance this offseason is expend precious assets to acquire a bridge QB like Carr in a trade.