Casey Conundrum Returns To Devils
Analytics acolytes view the ability to turn scoring chances into goals the way Card Sharks talk about pulling a face card on a double-downed Blackjack hand of 11. Don’t fret over the result because they’re bound to pay off if you keep getting them.
Only there might be so many opportunities in a single hockey game…and then you start over in a new hockey game against a different goaltending ace.
The Devils’ inconsistent finishing touches have been a season-long issue. With all their high-end skill, they should be better than middling in goals per game and shooting percentage. H/T to Pucks and Pitchforks for their study last month on the subject, concluding that shooting velocity was the key underperforming trait. From my vantage, I’d put accuracy right up there, too, be it shots that missed the net or were thrown right into the goalie’s midsection.
The Devils peppered Dallas goalie Casey DeSmith with 33 shots during Saturday’s 4-2 defeat at Prudential Center. NaturalStatTrick.com estimated that New Jersey should have put four in the back of the net instead of two given all its high danger scoring chances. In Sunday’s back-to-back at Nashville, the Devils failed to convert on four breakaways and several two-on-one’s. It can be frustrating to players, coaches, and fans.
So it’s hard to diminish the impact of what defenseman Seamus Casey can bring to this team. After scoring three times on just six shots on goal in the season’s first eight games before being sent down to AHL Utica to refine his defensive fundamentals, Casey picked up right where he left off when Devils Head Coach Sheldon Keefe reinserted him into the lineup in place of struggling Simon Nemec on Sunday, scoring the middle goal in a 5-0 victory.
With 5:32 remaining in the second period, Casey walked into a wrist shot and flat out beat Nashville netminder Justus Annunen from about 50 feet. There was a little bit of traffic in front, but that only made Casey’s ability to pick a corner more impressive. It wasn’t the Dougie Hamilton bomb from five minutes earlier from near the right wing boards that went in-and-out of the net so fast the naked eye couldn’t pick it up; Casey’s shot is more of the sneaky variety.
But folks, Seamus Casey leads all NHL rookie defensemen in both goals (4) and shooting percentage (44.4%). In nine games.
Yet the Devils have to hold serious discussions as to whether Casey is ready to play at this level, and by that I mean in both ends. The Devils’ expected goals share was 37.5% during Casey’s 14 minutes on the ice (all at five-on-five), even if he ended up being a plus-2.
Casey’s first two shifts of the second period averaged two minutes due to being pinned in his own zone. In the third period, Keefe stapled him to the bench for the first nine minutes with the Devils already up, 4-0. Casey then got 3:37 in garbage time, including a shift where his soft clearing attempt led to a Dallas goal that was nullified by a Keefe offsides challenge with about two minutes remaining, preserving Devils goalie Nico Daws’ shutout.
At 5-foot 10 and 178 pounds, Casey, 21, is at one of the smallest data points of the NHL defensemen size spectrum. He’ll get the years he needs to work on his body to add the strength necessary to engage in all the defensive zone battles he currently struggles with. Sorry, one stint in the minors, where he missed about two months with a wrist injury (yet still was Utica’s All-Star representative), isn’t enough prep time.
But man, what he can do when he has the puck on his stick--the skating, especially along the blue line, the passing, and that shot---it’s a powerful potion for a club that could use that kind of boost.
The conundrum will intensify when the Devils’ schedule stiffens this week. Lowly Nashville was just the start of a five-game road trip thar will resume in Colorado on Wednesday. A back-to-back at Utah and Vegas over the weekend will follow and then New Jersey will ger another shot at the Stars on March 4. Oh, and the first game back in Newark will be versus Winnipeg, the NHL’s second-best team.
The Devils (32-21-6) are battling to hang with Carolina—though they both have 70 points, the Hurricanes have two games in hand-for second place in the Metropolitan Division and the home ice in the first round of the playoffs that comes with it. Will Keefe be willing to roll with five defensemen while sheltering Casey’s minutes during such a crucial stretch of the season?
I saw a social media post that wondered whether Casey could mix in some shifts on the wing. That’s usually a bad idea—if his physicality limitations make him a scary proposition as a defenseman, why would anyone think he’ll be effective working along the walls in a bottom six role?
The Devils are also set at power play quarterback with Hamilton, whose presence provides the gravity that opens lanes for people like Stefan Noesen, who found a hole in the slot to score his 19th goal of the season (No. 10 on power plays) that put New Jersey up, 4-0. Casey probably wouldn’t even get to work PP2, as that’s Luke Hughes’ job at the moment.
The Jonas Siegenthaler injury, which could take him out through the end of the regular season if Devils General Manager Tom Fitzgerald needs his salary cap space to execute a trade, opened up a lineup spot for a Devils’ defenseman prospect to grab. By his play, Nemec doesn’t seem to want it and Casey isn’t quite up to the full load of it.
Unless Keefe is operating with a different set of odds.