Why Jets Should Pass On Bowers At No. 10
Jets fans old enough to remember still shiver when reminded of the 1995 NFL Draft. With a healthy throng of Gang Green fans inside the Paramount Theater at Madison Square Garden screaming for their team to select Miami defensive tackle Warren Sapp with the No. 9 overall pick, New York infamously chose Penn State tight end Kyle Brady.
We all know what happened thereafter. Sapp, taken by Tampa Bay three slots later, went on to have a Hall of Fame career. Brady, meanwhile, played a more-than-respectable 13 seasons in the NFL, but only four in New York, which let him walk in the 1999 free agency market.
So while it is inaccurate to call Brady “a bust”—he registered 93 receptions for 949 yards and 10 touchdowns in 56 games with New York—he certainly didn’t create the impact expected of a player drafted in that slot, never mind that of Sapp. As such, he is often listed alongside the many other prominent Jets Draft mishits.
I bring this nightmare back up because word is spreading that another tight end, Georgia’s Brock Bowers, will fall into New York’s lap at No. 10 in the 2024 Draft a month from today, with many mocks predicting the Jets will tab him. Should that come to fruition in Detroit, expect my reaction to be similar to those Jets fans in attendance 29 years ago—Nooooo!!!
While there are a few reasons why the pick could be defended as a logical one, the red flags are whipping. I get it, the Jets are all-in this season, with General Manager Joe Douglas and Head Coach Robert Saleh likely on their last lives. Take Douglas’ claim at Monday’s NFL meeting that a first-round quarterback is on the table with a grain of salt—you can bet that he’s looking for an immediate contributor.
Bowers would give 40-year old quarterback Aaron Rodgers another weapon in Week 1, as opposed to a tackle who would start the year behind offseason acquisitions Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses (if both are healthy—a big if). Bowers had a monster junior season where he often steamrolled defenders—per, ProFootballFocus.com, he led all FBS tight ends with 486 yards after the catch and 249 receiving yards after contact last season.
But those numbers were against smaller college competition. At 6-foot 4, 240 pounds, Bowers is actually undersized for his position at the pro level, according to scouting reports. It’s questionable whether he could run through NFL tackles like he’s another Mark Bavaro. Nor is Bowers considered to be overly fast off the line of scrimmage (he did not run at the NFL Combine nor at Georgia’s Pro Day due to a hamstring injury; he is scheduled to hold a separate workout on April 10), which explains why some scouts noted his low separation percentage against single coverage. Per PFF, he had only three catches with over air 20 yards last season.
Bowers got solid marks as a blocker, though much of the rep came from his blocking in space as opposed to in-line. He played more than half his snaps last season out of the slot.
Tight end development is notoriously hard to project. The league’s royalty—Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and San Francisco’s George Kittle—were taken in the third and fifth rounds of their respective Drafts. Former Patriot Rob Gronkowski, anointed by many as the best tight end in NFL history, was a No. 42 overall selection in the second round of the 2010 Draft.
There have been just five tight ends taken with a top 10 pick since 2000, the most recent by Atlanta with Kyle Pitts in 2021. Only San Francisco’s Vernon Davis made at best one second-team All-Pro among the five.
Which brings me to an interesting point posited in a column for The Athletic, which emphasized the importance of positional value when committing to a prized asset like a No. 10 pick. When you factor in the NFL’s wage scale of the four-year rookie contract, you get more bang for your bucks by hitting on a premium position, like quarterback, wide receiver, offensive tackle, etc., than on a tight end. That’s because the AAV of a top-five player at those positions exceeds the slotted salaries by far greater amounts, thereby enhancing your team’s cap sheet. For example, if the Jets end up needing to go into the market next offseason to get replacement tackles because Smith and Moses are each on one-year deals, it will cost them a heck of a lot more than if they wanted an upgrade of the same quality level over tight end Tyler Conklin. Ergo, having a tackle on a rookie contract on hand to plug in would make for more sound roster management than a tight end.
And in this Draft, with a rumored rush on quarterbacks and receivers, there should be a highly-regarded tackle who slips to No. 10. I’ve written previously (Smith Signing Doesn’t Cross Out Jets’ Tackle Option At Draft (substack.com)) why this is the way to go; I felt I needed to explain better why selecting Bowers would be a missed opportunity, even if he doesn’t end up becoming Kyle Brady 2.0.