Smith Signing Doesn’t Cross Out Jets’ Tackle Option At Draft
Douglas Faces Ugly Consequences Of Waiting Too Long To Cut Bait On Wilson
When I broke the news to my friend Mike that the Jets were reportedly signing All-Pro tackle Tyron Smith, he replied, “So who is going to play the ten games he misses?”
To be fair, the injury-prone Smith suited up for 14 of Dallas’ 18 games last season, including their playoff loss to Green Bay. And when he is able to perform, he does so at the highest level. Per ProFootballFocus.com, the only four tackles with a better pass blocking efficiency last season (minimum 200 pass block snaps) were the usual suspects Terron Armstead, Penei Sewell, Trent Williams, and Tristan Wirfs. Smith allowed three sacks and 21 pressures on 610 passing downs. The numbers for the man he will be replacing, unsigned free agent Mekhi Becton, were 12 sacks and 50 pressures during 644 pass block snaps. The Jets will be going from the equivalent of a studio apartment to a 24-room mansion, assuming the power stays on.
Because there has to be some concern about Smith’s durability. The last two even years weren’t kind to him, as he played in only six of the Cowboys’ 33 combined games in 2020 and 2022. He’ll turn 34 in December 2024 and will now be subject to the whims of the haunted MetLife Stadium turf. Anyone who believes Smith has a good shot to get through this coming season with a clean bill of health hasn’t been paying attention.
As such, I say this changes nothing with regard to New York’s plans for April’s NFL Draft. Securing a tackle should be the priority if it matches up with their board. I know, the consensus take will be that they select someone who can fill an immediate need, since this is supposed to be the all-in year with quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning from the Achilles injury that cost him all but four snaps in 2023.
I would agree that if one of the top wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabors, or Rome Odunze slips to New York at No. 10, that could be a viable pick. However, most mock drafts are simulating that all three will be snagged by then.
The better play anyway would be for General Manager Joe Douglas to not let former Chargers receiver Mike Williams out of the One Jets Drive offices until he signs a contract during Monday’s reported visit. Williams, who is coming off ACL surgery, would be an excellent complement to WR1 Garrett Wilson. A long 6-foot 4, Wiliams excels in the red zone with his wide catch radius and ability to win contested balls.
The beauty of the Smith deal is that it is for just one year with a mere $6.5 million guaranteed and $13.5 million based on playing time and other incentives. That should minimize the salary cap space needed to fit him—and a veteran receiver—in under the cap. If that’s still not enough room, there are always places Douglas can go to restructure existing contracts, like he just did with linebacker C.J. Mosley a few days ago to free up $12 million.
The short-term commitment to the fragile Smith is another reason why drafting the best tackle makes sense. The receivers’ rise up the mock Draft boards plus the signs that Minnesota is looking to sneak into the top 10 to select a quarterback could mean that Penn State’s Olumuyiwa Fashanu, who is a pure left tackle, could drop into Douglas’ lap. Per PFF, Fashanu is one of the youngest prospects in the Draft, and what better player to mentor him than a five-time All-Pro who barely practiced in season with Dallas. That and the reps a rookie tackle will get during the games where Smith is inactive due to injury sounds like a sound development plan.
Of course, this is the Jets, so there isn’t a guarantee that such s plan will be executed. The Smith signing can’t be the end—there’s still the matter of offensive line depth and that elusive receiver. The ball is in Douglas’ court to keep it rolling forward.
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One place where creating cap space is looking less likely every day is with regard to the disposition of quarterback Zach Wilson. Everyone knows the Jets and their 2021 No. 2 overall bust are searching for the right way to break up, with Douglas announcing recently that he has given Wilson’s team permission to find a trade partner.
And though QBs are switching teams like this offseason is a game of musical chairs, it’s the Jets who could easily be left standing alone in the cold. The problem, as it often seems to be with this incompetent franchise, is that management waited too long to cut bait. Douglas had every right to stop his loss on Wilson following the 2022 campaign when he posted some of the worst metrics of any highly-drafted QB this century over their first two seasons.
Only Douglas probably felt that conceding he made an oopsie with such a valuable asset would have made him look bad. So he came up with the “Rodgers will straighten him out” spin to keep Wilson around another year. Only Rodgers got hurt, and Wilson stunk again in his stead.
Wilson is slated to earn a guaranteed salary of approximately $5.45 million this season, another obstacle to a trade. Maybe the Jets can extract a conditional 2025 pick based on Wilson’s playing time, or a mere pick swap like the Commanders just did when sending Sam Howell to Seattle. That would at least lower the amount of dead money the Jets would have to keep on their books for 2024.
Unfortunately, with the QB job openings rapidly getting filled, the worst-case scenario isn’t out of the question--the Jets could end up having to cut Wilson outright, thereby creating an $11.1 million dead money cap hit with zero cap savings, according to overthecap.com.
If Douglas put Wilson on the market when he should have last offseason, he might have been able to recoup a Day 2 pick like the 49ers got for Trey Lance, the player selected right after Wilson at No. 3. Because that organization doesn’t need to worry about the temporary embarrassment of a whiffed high pick—they moved forward while the Jets remained mired in the abyss.