With Playoff Picture Clear, Ruff Has Decisions To Make On Devils’ Lineup
In the end, the Devils’ whirlwind 5-4 overtime victory in the season finale in Washington on Thursday night didn’t mean anything in terms of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, as Carolina wrapped up the Metropolitan Division by one point with their victory in Florida. As it seemed destined for quite some time, New Jersey (52-22-8, a franchise record for most wins and points in one season) will take on the Rangers in the opening round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs next week.
The manner in which the Devils roared back from a 4-1 deficit, however, could prove determinative as to who Devils Head Coach Lindy Ruff goes with for Game 1 when their bitter rivals traverse the Hudson River.
As most understand, the hockey postseason is a different animal. Experience and grit take on added importance at this time of year. Where a lineup decision is required, is Ruff willing to lean on those traits over those who have been performing with more skill down the stretch?
Below are three such decisions that aren’t as easy to nail down as one might think:
1) Backup goalie
Fresh off the bus from AHL Utica, Akira Schmid replaced a shaky Mackenzie Blackwood after Washington tallied its fourth goal on 11 shots early in the second period. Schmid’s subsequent 20-for-20 outing elevated him to fourth place in save percentage among NHL goalies with at least 15 games this season. It was the third time this season that the 22-year old Swiss native has come off the bench to salvage a Devils victory.
Blackwood, meanwhile, has alternated between spectacular and porous—often within the same game--since returning from a lower body injury three weeks ago. For the last three seasons, it feels like every time he starts to find his game, another malady shuts him down.
It would seem like a no-brainer decision for Ruff as to who he has backing up his No. 1 Vitek Vanecek. You take Schmid over the unreliable Blackwood every time, right?
Well…
Let the record show that Schmid has all of 24 NHL games under his belt and has never beaten a team that qualified for the playoffs, going 0-4-2 when given such opportunities this season. Blackwood’s record versus playoff teams was 6-4-2, made more respectable when you consider that three of the six losses came against Boston and Carolina, the only two teams in the league who finished with a higher point total than the Devils this season. So, how much of Blackwood’s inferior raw and advanced stats when compared to Schmid can be attributed to competition differences?
Unfortunately, what should sink Blackwood is his propensity for giving up softies, which you just can’t have in tight playoff games. There’s just too much of a gap between the two netminders in NaturalStatTrick.com’s goals save above average.
My pick: Schmid
2) Sixth defenseman
You couldn’t have scripted a more cliched Hollywood ending to the season than when Luke Hughes scored his first NHL goal to cap the Caps in overtime, assisted by his brother Jack. It was beauteous, with Hughes splitting the defense to put a shot on Washington goalie Darcy Kuemper, grabbing the rebound at the left post, and then circling the net for a wraparound.
Not too shabby for a 19-year old in his second pro game. The open question, though, was if it was enough to nudge Ruff into inserting Hughes over the defensemen who brought the team here all season.
For this purpose, I think we should eliminate Brendan Smith, who, despite Ruff’s lavish praise of his intangible value on the bench, is a grave mistake waiting to happen should he dress against the skilled Rangers. He’s the only Devils defenseman who played at least 10 games this season who was on the ice for more five-on-five goals against than goals for, per NST.
That would pit Hughes versus Kevin Bahl, who has impressively raised his game since becoming more of a lineup staple in February. Ruff has even bumped him up from the third pair to play most of his minutes with Dougie Hamilton. The 6-foot 6 Bahl brings a physicality and defensive presence that Hughes just can’t match at this stage of his career.
What Hughes does bring, however, is gamebreaking skill. He’s such a smooth skater that he might one day draw comparisons with former Devils Hall of Fame defenseman Scott Niedermayer. In addition, his hockey IQ is off the charts. He already has shown an ability to escape pressure with a quick move and and/or an on-the-tape pass.
My guess, though, is that Ruff won’t throw him into the fire in the opener. Blame Michigan, who advanced to the Frozen Four, thereby limiting Hughes’ NHL initiation.
My pick: Bahl
3) The forward lines
When it comes to Ruff’s configuration. a lot will depend on the status of center Michael McLeod’s presumed concussion. Curtis Lazar returned from his own injury to take McLeod’s place for Thursday’s game, doing a lot of the same work except for in the faceoff circle, where he lost two-thirds of his draws.
Assuming McLeod can go next week, there will be at least one more odd man out among the forward group. Veteran wing Ondrej Palat earned a rest day on Thursday and, despite a subpar year, will surely garner a spot given his salary and Stanley Cup resume. Jesper Boqvist has been skating well down the stretch, with five points in the last seven games. And the Devils are 33-7-3 with rugged wing Nathan Bastian in the lineup.
That leaves Yegor Sharangovich, who simply hasn’t produced to the level expected of him this season, with just 13 goals and 17 assists in 75 games. Like Smith above, he is the only Devils forward (minimum 20 games) where the Devils have been negative in five-on-five goals for/against. Though a dangerous penalty killer, Sharangovich can be easily replaced in the rotation with someone like Boqvist.
As to the line combinations, Ruff has been fluid all season, so however the Devils line up in Game 1 should be written in pencil. To me, the most important decision is who plays with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt on the second line. You just know that the Rangers’ top mission is to take Hughes out of the game. Therefore, he’s going to need more help.
So it can’t be Palat. Many would have loved to see marquee trade deadline acquisition Timo Meier take it and run, but it didn’t happen. The trio only played 57 minutes together at five-on-five, per NST, but I thought they lacked chemistry. Maybe there is something to the “only one puck out there” corollary.
Funny how the season has gone, but the Devils would probably be best served moving Erik Haula back up with Hughes. It would give New Jersey a significantly better faceoff man and a responsible defensive forward on the line, something Ruff prioritizes. Most importantly, Haula, who couldn’t put the puck in the ocean from the pier earlier in the season, suddenly has a hot stick. His two goals on Thursday gives him six in his last seven games to go along with two assists.
As such…
My picks:
Tomas Tatar/Nico Hischier/Dawson Mercer
Erik Haula/Jack Hughes/Jesper Bratt
Ondrej Palat/Jesper Boqvist/Timo Meier
Miles Wood/Michael McLeod/Nathan Bastian