With Improved Playmaking, All That’s Missing From Thomas’ Development Is The “D”
The Nets’ attempt to have their March go out like a lion was derailed when they surrendered the first 17 points over the first six minutes of Sunday’s 116-104 loss to the visiting Lakers. The defeat ended Brooklyn’s (29-46) three-game winning streak and dropped the magic number for Atlanta to clinch the 10th and final Eastern Conference play-in seed to three with two weeks left in the season.
The Nets had multiple opportunities to make this a real race over the course of the month but endured a 2-9 stretch that saw them drop winnable games to tanking opponents like Memphis, San Antonio, Detroit, and Charlotte. With those results, Brooklyn’s season went from disappointing to pathetic.
If I could pinpoint one silver lining in an otherwise ugly 31 days, it was the growth in guard Cam Thomas’ game. Brooklyn’s No. 27 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft ranked ninth in the league in March scoring at 26.8 points per game,. And he did it rather efficiently on a 46.4/39.2/88.2 shooting split.
The word has been out for a while that Thomas is a walking bucket (“He does that to everybody,” Lakers star LeBron James said after Thomas put up 30 points on Sunday), but what stood out during the month has been the improved playmaking. I’ll admit that I was throwing stuff at the wall when I suggested in late February that the Nets should get Thomas some reps as a second-unit point guard (Improved Nets Health Hasn’t Translated To Better Basketball (substack.com)) to further his general development--and there were some jibes thrown my way from those who still ignorantly view Thomas as nothing but a ball hog. But kudos to interim Head Coach Kevin Ollie for thinking of it on his own.
The point of the proposed exercise was to get Thomas involved in all facets of the halfcourt offense, not just the off-ball, create your own shot stuff. He needed to work on things like how to run plays precisely, the importance of getting teammates involved, where to go when he gets stuck in trapped blitzes, etc. Like anything, it’s best to learn by doing—in games, not just practices or in film study with coaches.
A side benefit, at least from my perspective, is that we’ve seen less of Dennis Smith Jr., a sub 30% three-point shooter, since Ollie began experimenting with Thomas as the backup point guard during the March 17 debacle against the Spurs. Not counting the three games he missed with a hip injury—all Nets victories--Smith has averaged 10 minutes per game, down approximately 9.5 minutes per game from his season average to that point.
Thomas, meanwhile, took the ball and ran with it, or more precisely, sometimes passed it. He averaged 4.3 assists per game over 11 March games (he also missed time at the beginning of the month with a foot injury and the March 25 game in Toronto with a sore back). That might not seem like much—and there were certainly ignored opportunities for kick-outs that could have boosted that rate in lieu of more hoists—but consider that it was his high for any month during his three-year pro career, beating the 3.8 assists he posted in February.
In fact, Thomas has improved his assists per game every month this season. And it’s not just because he’s seen more regular playing time under Ollie—his assist percentage, which measures the percentage of teammate field goals a player assisted on while he was on the floor—has similarly increased every month, per NBA.com.
There have been some blips, as to be expected of a 22-year old given more responsibility with the ball in his hands. Still, you can live with some passing turnovers from bad reads, as opposed to those lost possessions from when he used to try to take on a defense by himself. The lazy passes, though, like the one in the final minute of Sunday’s first half that was intercepted by former Net D’Angelo Russell and led to an Austin Reaves alley-oop dunk, need to be minimized. On the other hand, I enjoyed the contrast in the accuracy of lob passes between Thomas and Lakers guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who sailed one into the stands on Sunday like he often did during his Brooklyn days.
Now that Thomas is expanding his arsenal on offense, all that’s left in his development is the not-so-easy solution to his atrocious defense. James and Anthony Davis are so gifted that Sunday’s game plan could have been written in crayon, but the reality has been that most teams spend a great deal of their possessions figuring out ways to target Thomas. Whoever he’s guarding automatically becomes the screen setter in an attempt to get him to switch onto the ballhandler. NBA.com doesn’t keep stats on “blow-by’s”, but whatever figure is attributed to Thomas’ one-on-defense is too high. Heck, even diminutive backup T.J. McConnell beat Thomas straight to the rim three times during a March 16 blowout win by the Pacers, Brooklyn’s home-and-home opponent in their next two contests.
Thomas’ off-ball defense hasn’t gotten any better either. He’s still been culpable in getting caught spectating instead of participating in rotations or moving with cutters. Both issues seem to stem from Thomas’ slowness in reacting to opponents’ maneuvers. Some of that could be simple effort, though I’m loathe to pin that on any player without confirmation, or at least more concrete video evidence.
Instead, I wonder if the next coaching staff could squeeze just a little bit more out of Thomas defensively. They could teach him how to navigate screens so as to not get pinballed out to midcourt and leave a Nets center in drop coverage at the mercy of a 2-on-1. You could tell by his offensive agility that he has a strong and shifty base, with a body somewhat like that of Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell, who has shown expertise in blowing up Nets’ picks in the past. When Thomas’ man is the screener, maybe there should be more blitz and recover calls, so as to not so easily accommodate the offense’s intent on getting Thomas to switch onto the ballhandler.
And there are ways to drill defensive techniques to improve upon one’s ability to keep ballhandlers in front, so his teammates don’t feel the need to leave shooters open by overhelping. I looked at Reaves, who got similarly roasted during Team USA’s disappointing FIBA World Cup last summer, and saw a player who competed much harder on that end on Sunday, Was that coaching?
Now, I wouldn’t call Reaves, who is two inches taller than Thomas, defensively stout either—per NBA.com’s tracking, he’s allowing opponents to shoot 49.6% from the floor as the nearest defender, 2.7% above those shooters’ averages from those spots this season (In comparison, Thomas’ numbers are 50.1% allowed and 3.1% above the average). Brooklyn went 9-for-16 on shots where Reaves was the closest defender on Sunday. Still, from my vantage, many of those buckets came from the Nets shooting over Reaves, not so much going by him to the rim.
Among the many decisions Nets management needs to make in the coming months is whether to extend Thomas beyond next season’s fourth-year option. Bleacher Report opined that his next contract should clear at least $20 million per year. The Nets can either ink him to a new deal this summer through the October deadline or wait until Thomas hits restricted free agency in the 2025 offseason with a far lower (about $12.1 million, per Spotrac.com) cap hold. Of course, deferring would put the Nets at risk of having to match an outsized offer sheet.
It’s too soon to make a prediction on that outcome. I will say that the Nets can’t ever be a championship contender with Thomas at this defensive level in a closing lineup—think of the Hawks with Trae Young. Extending him then would just be adding another $20 million-plus player to a team residing in mediocrity. But can another coach unlock something in Thomas that no one saw coming, making him a bargain at that price?
Hey, many doubted that Thomas could evolve into a willing and able passer, so who knows?