With All Eyes On Rodgers, Other Jets Could Potentially Serve As Week 1 Game-Wreckers
Take two.
I’m not sure Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh was really as amused as he showed during Thursday’s press conference when asked if he’ll be breathing a sigh of relief on Gang Green’s fifth snap of Monday night’s opener in San Francisco, a reference to how last season went off the rails when star quarterback Aaron Rodgers ruptured his Achilles and was lost for the year on the fourth play.
That disastrous turn of events showed how fragile most franchises are, because football’s HC/QB relationship is the most crucial to success of any combination in any professional team sport.
The Jets haven’t mastered that fusion since perhaps 1998, which is a big reason why their futility record has reached 13 years without a playoff berth, 22 years without a division title, and 56 years without a Super Bowl.
In order to reverse New York’s streak of misfortunes, it won’t be enough to put a heavy burden on what has been an excellent defense. To beat elite clubs like the defending NFC champion 49ers, they’re most likely going to have to score more than 20 points, the number which Saleh offered to broadcaster Tony Dungy as the de facto goal line in advance of a contest in Las Vegas last season. The Jets will have to learn how to win games in the 30s, not just 16-13.
That means Rodgers is going to have to put together a season closer to his 2021 MVP campaign than his injury-plagued last two years. The hope is that he’ll have the freedom to check out of ill-advised play calls from Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who’s record in that role leaves much to be desired, so that Rodgers won’t always be facing pressure on obvious passing downs.
Since we never got to witness last season whether Rodgers has still got the goods, it’s a wait-and-see situation. Even he has admitted that all the extra reps he took in camp leading up to Week 1 wasn’t “real football.”
Aside from Rodgers—and the obvious headliners like running back Breece Hall, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and cornerback Sauce Gardner—here are a few of the other Jets who I believe will also play pivotal roles on Monday night.
C.J. Mosley/Quincy Williams
San Francisco HC Kyle Shanahan is a master at scheming his best weapons into favorable matchups. Look for a lot of linebackers Mosley and Williams chasing 49ers receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk across the field. Making their lives significantly more difficult is the elusiveness of Christian McCaffery, the NFL’s leading rusher last season. Only Baltimore and Chicago ran the ball more often than Shanahan last season—and those other clubs utilized a heavy dose of quarterback options. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy isn’t a Lamar Jackson/Justin Fields type threat running the ball, but he was the league’s deadliest in play action, per ProFootballFocus.com among those who used it at least 100 times. He completed an unreal 80.6% of such passes while averaging 11 yards per attempt. McCaffery’s presence forces opposing linebackers to respect the run first (in addition to paying attention to him sneaking out of the backfield on pass routes), which gives Samuel and Aiyuk that extra second head start. Purdy’s accuracy then leads his targets into yards after catch opportunities, many of which yield explosive plays. Given that the Niners utilized a fullback on nearly half their offensive snaps last season, according to sumersports.com, I’d expect Jets Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to counter those packages with a third linebacker in Jamien Sherwood, even if it means leaving newly extended Michael Carter II, a demon covering slot receivers, on the sidelines. The Jets were among the many teams who did not give their starters any reps in preseason action, which means their LBs will be hitting the ground running, hopefully with 49ers ballcarriers in their arms.
Jeremy Ruckert
Whereas Shanahan gets great mileage from his fullback, the Jets’ have a different version of a jumbo package. Since they lack receiver depth, especially with free agent acquisition Mike Williams on a pitch count following his recovery from ACL surgery, New York will likely go with a two tight end personnel package in many of their base formations, unless they fall behind. That means Ruckert, who was on the field for just 28% of the team’s offensive snaps during his sophomore season, will have to step up. In 2023, his presence often signified “run” to the opposition—he ran 142 routes in 310 snaps but was targeted only 21 times, per PFF. I think Rodgers’ superior vision will make Ruckert more of a factor as a receiver in this game. The 49ers could game plan to have Second Team All-Pro cornerback Charvarius Ward follow Wilson all over the field, but they’ve been known as a primarily zone team since the days Salah was their Defensive Coordinator. Rodgers, though, is a take-what-they-give-me QB. I believe there are strong odds that the 49ers will give him Ruckert, who must make those opportunities result in new sets of downs.
Javon Kinlaw
In the offseason, the Jets used the money—and then some—that could have gone into re-signing defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson to ink 49ers free agent Kinlaw, a former No. 14 overall pick. Kinlaw has the size to fill Jefferson’s shoes, but he has yet to boast the production, with his 3.5 sacks last season his career high. Jefferson, by the way, registered 6 sacks in 82 fewer pass rush opportunities, per PFF, and tied for 7th in pressure percentage among NFL interior linemen with at least 200 pass rush snaps. For this game, the Jets need Kinlaw to be a disruptive force—without running himself out of plays upfield. Purdy ranks about average when it comes to getting rid of the ball, but the best way to pressure him is up the middle. Kinlaw has the body and athleticism to at least make the Niners pay for the extra attention they’ll surely be giving Quinnen Williams. Bill Parcells used to say that there was nothing more important to winning than a fourth quarter pass rush. Kinlaw will be rotated just like all Jets linemen; maybe he could wreck this revenge game in crunch time.
Prediction: 49ers 27 Jets 23