Wilson’s Modest Growth When Facing Pressure Bodes Well For Jets’ Chances Versus Blitzing Giants
All NFL quarterbacks work best when operating from clean pockets. How the young ones learn to handle pressure, however, often separates those that are destined to become long-term pros from the flameouts.
Certain teams, like the Giants, who host their MetLife Stadium co-tenant Jets on Sunday, often attempt to create pressure on opposing QBs by sending the house at them. From any angle. Only two teams have blitzed more often this season, according to pr-football-reference.com. All that blitzing (41.6% of opposing QB dropbacks) has forced the Giants into utilizing man coverage on the back end at the league’s third-highest rate, per Jets X Factor, which has made them more susceptible to allowing explosive plays.
Though the Giants (2-5) may appear to be an “easy game” for Gang Green’s offense to pad stats, Defensive Coordinator Wink Martindale’s unit has actually played very well the last two weeks, holding the dynamic Bills to 14 points and overpowering Washington with six sacks.
Heavy doses of blitzing and man coverages have been Kryptonite for Jets quarterback Zach Wilson in his two-plus seasons. It’s why he always has so much trouble with New England every year.
The somewhat good news is that Wilson has been making incremental progress in these areas this season. Per ProFootballFocus.com, he had perhaps his best game of his career against the blitz in his last outing, a rousing 20-14 victory over defending NFC champion Philadelphia before the Jets’ bye week. Wilson went 8-for-10 for 119 yards with only one sack taken when blitzed.
For the season, he is seventh among NFL QBs in yards per attempt and 12th in completion percentage against blitzes, per PFF. That’s a far cry from his 39th and 38th-place rankings, respectively, from his rookie season and the 32nd and (gulp) 42nd-place finishes in 2022.
Wilson’s numbers against the blitz since that debacle against New England in Week 3 are even better—fifth in YPA and seventh in completion percentage. Again, two of those three games were against last season’s Super Bowl combatants, Kansas City and Philadelphia.
You could argue that Wilson, the No, 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, needed a few games to get comfortable with how new Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett devised the program. After all, it was meant for Aaron Rodgers, only the future Hall of Fame bound quarterback ruptured his Achilles on the season’s fourth snap.
There’s still been too many negative plays when pressured—Wilson has taken six sacks and threw two interceptions in his 64 dropbacks facing a blitz—but then again, he also does those things too often when he has sufficient time to throw.
In addition, man coverage still seems to be a bit befuddling for Wilson, who appears to be overly wary of the potential for interceptions instead of trusting his receivers to win their routes or even his own ability to “throw guys open.” According to Playerprofile.com, he’s only completing 47.1% of his passes against man coverage this season. Yikes.
Though I’m not in team meetings, an educated guess would be to presume that Sunday’s affair will proceed like the one in Denver in Week 5, where the Jets opened up with a ground-heavy game plan and crossed their fingers when they got to third-and-long. The staff’s belief seems to be that the defense will be able to force enough turnovers so that Wilson isn’t needed to “win the game.”
It may feel hard to blame them, since the Jets (3-3) have used that formula to beat a pair of pretty good teams. Remember, the only game where Wilson exceeded the extremely low bar of 200 yards passing this season was during the Kansas City loss.
However, Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll is a pretty smart fellow. I’d bet he’s been preaching ball security all week. Tyrod Taylor, who took over as the starting QB when Daniel Jones suffered a neck injury in Week 5, has played clean for two-plus games.
Not to beat a dead horse on this forum, but the Jets’ might be best served not relying on the generosity of strangers. Instead, the wiser plan of action would be to utilize more early-down, play-action passing, which Wilson happens to do pretty well in limited (18.3% of dropbacks, placing 25th among the 33 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks, per PFF) opportunities, to hold the Giants’ rushers for a beat. Some running back screens to Breece Hall to get him in space would be nice too. Crazy to see that those have only been called six times all season for an average of 7.8 yards per reception.
The most important aspect for Wilson in this game will be whether he has thoroughly studied video to get a clear enough picture as to where the Giants’ rushes tend to come from. When he’s been seeing it lately, he has been better at beating it.
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The Giants game isn’t just massive for its importance in the playoff picture or the whole New York versus New York (or, if you will, New Jersey versus New Jersey) thing. It’s the last game prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline.
I doubt that a loss would turn the Jets into “sellers”, though some of General Manager Joe Douglas’ best work during his four-year tenure has been through returning excess value in deals for his unwanted veterans. Certain players, like edge rusher Carl Lawson and running back Dalvin Cook, might be on the block either way before their grumpiness over lack of playing time could turn disruptive.
A victory, however, might solidify Douglas’ instinct to be more aggressive. Who knows if Rodgers is whispering in his ear, teasing an unprecedented (and ill-advised) early return from surgery. Get the team more playmakers, like Denver wide receiver Jerry Jeudy or someone of that ilk, and let’s see what happens.
Draft picks? Rodgers won’t be around to see them bear fruit. Salary cap issues? Heck, that’s never stopped any team—there’s always guys willing to convert salary into bonuses that can be prorated into future years.
It will be interesting to see what Douglas comes up with next week. Provided, of course, the Jets take care of business on the field first.
Prediction: Jets 19 Giants 13
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