Wilson’s Lack Of Progression With Jets Mirrors Smith’s Tenure, Only Worse
If Zach Wilson is looking for inspiration from a player who resurrected his career by overcoming the ignominy of getting booted out of New York, he can simply watch Geno Smith quarterback the Seahawks when they host the Jets on Sunday.
Wilson, who was benched for Mike White after a horrid performance in a 10-3 loss in New England in Week 11 and then fumbled a reprieve when White was out the last two weeks with broken ribs, will be inactive again on Sunday, a humbling experience for the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. No matter what comes out of the mouths of those in charge at One Jets Drive, the team will absolutely be on the prowl for a new QB this coming offseason.
Smith was a 2013 Jets second-rounder, but, like Wilson, he was thrown to the wolves right away and got devoured. After two seasons as a starter and two more in a backup role (brought upon by a training camp locker room fight with linebacker IK Enemkpali that broke Smith’s jaw as much as performance), Smith was allowed to walk out the MetLife Stadium door as a free agent before he remerged at, well, the MetLife Stadium door as QB2 for the 2017 Giants. His journey eventually led to Seattle, where he won this season’s starting job left vacant by the departure of Russell Wilson.
Smith parlayed that opportunity into a Pro Bowl season. Whereas once he was derided as scatter-armed, he leads all qualifying NFL QBs this season with a ridiculous 70.7% completion percentage and is seventh in yards per attempt. In New York, his touchdown to interception ratio was 28-to-36; this season, it’s a robust 27-to-9.
While Wilson’s Jets tenure hasn’t exactly equated to that of Smith, his biggest problem is that he is starting from a deeper hole. For all of Smith’s flaws as a young player, he was better than Wilson in the most important metrics. In fact, Wilson has been far and away the worst quarterback in the league over the last two seasons in rbsdm.com’s expected points added per play/completion percentage over expected composite. Despite tossing an ungodly 21 interceptions as a rookie, Smith ranked 34th out of 48 qualifying QBs in this category over his first two seasons. Smith was slightly more accurate when throwing from a clean pocket and his percentage of turnover worthy throws was roughly 1/3 lower than Wilson’s in Year 2, according to ProFootballFocus.com.
And let’s not ignore that it gets easier to throw the ball every year in the NFL. Wilson even had significantly more advantages in terms of skill position personnel than Smith ever had. Those Jets were run on a shoestring budget under former General Manager John Idzik, who infamously whiffed on his 12-player Draft in 2014.
Wilson’s three week “reset” was never going to be enough to fix all that was wrong with his play. His processing is all messed up, which has led to inaccurate throws from poor fundamentals and, finally, to an utter destruction of his confidence. He clearly needs a new environment to work these issues out, and even that might not be enough. For he has a steeper climb than Smith had to reach the latter’s level.
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I’ll have more to say about the Jets’ future quarterback options once the season is over, but I feel comfortable in my view that, despite what some talk show hosts might espouse, White isn’t the long-term solution.
To repeat a refrain from past posts, White shouldn’t at this stage be judged by the Almighty but by the alternative. And since the Jets have received dreadful QB play from Wilson and Joe Flacco (except for two minutes in Cleveland in Week 2) this season, White looks fantastic in comparison. He runs the Mike LaFleur offense to greater precision and, his red zone struggles aside, has averaged about 20% more points per drive than Wilson, according to ESPN.
However, in no way does that mean that White is capable of developing into a quarterback who can lead this franchise to a Super Bowl. He is, after all, 27. This idea that he can earn the 2023 starter’s job with solid performances in these last two games would be a grave mistake. He’s won exactly two games in a pro career that began with his fifth round selection in the 2018 Draft.
In addition to substandard arm strength, White’s lack of mobility has made him a sitting duck in the Jets’ pocket. Some may see White’s willingness to take a big hit to make a play as admirable, but it also contributed to his getting sidelined with injuries in each of the last two seasons. In this era, Gang Green should be on the lookout for a dual threat QB who can turn pressure into positive gains using his arm or legs.
White is easy to root for as the underdog who battles through difficult odds. He has outperformed Wilson by every measuring stick, so the Jets have no choice but to ride him out.
However, there will be better alternatives in the offseason that Jets management must pursue.
Prediction: Seahawks 23 Jets 13