Wilson Finding A Comfort Zone With Intermediate Routes
As the Jets young core grows up, NFL watchers are trying to figure out what this group can be. As with any club, it all starts with the quarterback.
Some QBs, like former Jet Chad Pennington, seem destined to be dink-and-dunkers, deadly accurate on the shorter throws but whose efficiency decreases the further he attempts to push the ball downfield. Good quarterback, but limited to game management. Then there’s the mad bomber types like Ryan Fitzpatrick, very capable of connecting on deep shots but who could also misfire on the next five passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
In an admittedly small sample size of two games this season, current Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has been, well, in the middle. Call him Mr. Intermediate.
In 12 medium-depth (10-19 yards travelled) attempts, Wilson has completed 9 at an average of 15.6 yards per attempt, per ProFootballFpcus.com. Only Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers, New York’s opponent on Sunday, has a higher completion percentage and YPA on intermediate throws this season (minimum 10 attempts).
The difference, or rather one of many differences, is that Rodgers is an expert at every level on the field (though his deep passing numbers are way down this season with star wide receiver Devante Adams now in Las Vegas). Meanwhile, Wilson, in just his second NFL season and 15 years younger than his counterpart, is a mere 2-of-7 on throws over 20 yards downfield, placing him 28th among 33 QBs in completion percentage His heftier YPA is overweighted by one play where his 20-yard pass landed in the arms of wide-open rookie running back Breece Hall, who took it an additional 59 yards against Miami last week.
Similarly, Wilson lags behind in the bottom tier of NFL QBs on short passes, where only five current starters have a lower completion percentage on such plays. In fairness, PFF counted three drops by receivers that knocked Wilson down about 10 places in this category, though he did finish dead last in the short throw adjusted completion percentage stat that factors out drops last season.
Contrary to his legend, Wilson has been at his best not when he’s running around in the backfield like Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes making off-schedule throws downfield, but when he drops back, plants the back foot, and drives the ball to his intermediate receiver. The velocity and accuracy have been stunning. Sure, his escapability has allowed him to scramble out of some trouble to throw balls away to live another down in lieu of taking sacks that doom drives, but he’s not been good under pressure at all, owning the lowest completion percentage (18.8%) among the 38 QBs that have been pressured at least 15 times this season.
A key driver in Wilson’s intermediate success, which can also slow down a pass rush for a beat, has been the increased use of play action. Jets Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur, who will be going up against his brother and Green Bay Head Coach Matt on Sunday, rarely utilized play action (17% of dropbacks per PFF, sixth-lowest among 40 qualified QBs) when Joe Flacco stepped in for the injured Wilson during the first three games. Granted, so many of those play calls occurred when the Jets were in obvious passing situations where play action would, in theory, prove to be less deceptive to opposing defenses, but the numbers show that Wilson has been using it not only more often, but as a more effective strategic ploy to gain chunk yards. On the nearly 30% of dropbacks he’s used play action in the last two games, his average depth of target on the ensuing pass attempts is just shy of 18 yards.
Wilson has been excellent when targeting his receivers, particularly Corey Davis, beyond the linebackers and in front of safeties. Davis has caught five of his six targets on intermediate routes for an average gain of 17.2 yards per catch, per PFF. Wait until Wilson develops similar chemistry with wide receivers Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson and tight ends Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah.
According to Sharp Stats, the Packers, who sport the second-best pass defense in the league at just 177 yards allowed per game, happen to be the NFL’s worst in defending the play-action pass in terms of advanced metrics like expected points per play allowed and opponent success rate. I know many Jets fans are buying the corporate line that the team needs to establish a running game before breaking out the pass plays. That’s B.S. Too often it puts Wilson and the offense behind the chains so the opponents can tee up the pass rush. They were lucky the last two weeks that they faced weak quarterbacks who weren’t able to jump out in front like what happened in the first three weeks. With the wily and still spry Rodgers due up on Sunday, New York shouldn’t count on simply hanging around until the fourth quarter.
If Mike LaFleur doesn’t load up on early-down play-action pass calls for Mr. Intermediate on Sunday, he should just hand in his playbook after the game and try to land a job with his brother.
Prediction: Packers 31 Jets 20