Will The Jets Pay Huff? The Signs Aren’t Good

Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK

I believe Bryce Huff’s case for a Jets extension has been rigged against him.

There have been many will they/won’t they takes recently on whether Gang Green will pony up for Huff, who was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2020 and then developed into one of the NFL’s premier pass rushers, a position that gets you paid.

Incredibly, a new deal might not be in the cards.

In his contract year, Huff reached double digits in sacks (10) for the first time in his career and trailed only Dallas’ Second Team All-Pro Micah Parsons in pressure percentage, as measured by ProFootballFocus.com (250 pass rush snaps minimum). In pass rush win rate, Huff finished behind Parsons and Cleveland’s First Team All-Pro Myles Garrett.

That’s pretty exclusive company. Yet the Jets have seemingly never exhibited any urgency in getting Huff inked to a long-term contract. Remember that they had the opportunity to get one done a year ago, when Huff finished second and first in the above respective categories (albeit in far fewer snaps). Instead of locking him up, Jets General Manager Joe Douglas got him to accept the bargain rate of the $4.3 million restricted free agent tender.

The Jets then continued to limit Huff’s playing time in 2023—his 42% snap count percentage was less than those of fellow defensive ends John Franklin-Myers and Jermaine Johnson—despite his obvious impact. Per ESPN’s Rich Cimini, the Jets allowed a passer rating of 69.8 with Huff on the field versus 83.1 when he was on the sideline.

Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh is a firm believer in a defensive line rotation, so stubborn that it is easy fodder for sarcasm. I mean, we can only imagine how much greater Garrett would have been this season if Cleveland had cut back on the 77% of its snap counts he was forced to play, right? Saleh, though, will die on this hill.

The area where Saleh tried to keep Huff off the field was on plausible rushing downs—nearly 75% of Huff’s snaps this season came on passing downs. His ability to contain the run has been much maligned. Opponents were more likely to succeed on run plays when Huff was on the field versus off last season, according to Jets X Factor. He was credited with a 5.3% run stop percentage by PFF, which may be below average for the league’s edge rushers, but for comparison purposes, Franklin-Myers finished with a 3.1% run stop rate.

The Jets had such little faith in Huff entering last season that they wasted their first round pick (No. 15 overall) in the 2023 NFL Draft on Will McDonald IV, a textbook redundancy that should have disqualified Douglas from ever making picks for this franchise again.

No wonder Huff spoke out at season’s end about how he’s not giving the Jets any kind of hometown discount in these negotiations. He bet on himself and the Jets lost. Good for him.  

What will the Jets do? The right thing would be to reward Huff with a long-term deal, but doing the right thing isn’t in this organization’s playbook. Besides, owner Woody Johnson basically put out a mandate that the spending focus this offseason should be on offense. Does anyone think Douglas is going to ignore that when his seat is this warm?

There are differing views as to whether the Jets will franchise tag Huff during the period ending March 6. He’d get approximately $23 million for 2024 if deemed a defensive end by the NFL wizards who decide these things, $22 million if he’s an outside linebacker. However, considering where New York stands with salary cap space, with less than $5 million in current room before cuts and restructures, per ESPN, a franchise tag would put even more stress on the team’s finances. A multi-year deal would at least allow the Jets to prorate upfront bonus money over the full term.  

That’s why my best guess is that Huff will be working for a new employer next season. Douglas may have gauged the trade market in October and, when he failed to find a counterparty willing to give him a high draft pick for Huff, he figured he could do better by losing the player in free agency and being rewarded with an NFL compensatory pick, which could go as high as a third-rounder. Of course, the final outcome of these bonus picks depends on what else the Jets do in free agency. Sign a high-priced wide receiver and/or offensive tackle, and that third-rounder could drop down or even vanish. No one has ever broken the code as to exactly how these compensatory picks are calculated.

Douglas may also feel that the risk of losing Huff is minimized by the team’s depth at the position. But to me, that seems way riskier. Douglas is putting an awful lot of chips on McDonald replicating what Jermaine Johnson just did in his second pro season. However, there was more data to indicate that was coming from Johnson as he played 40% more snaps than McDonald was given during his rookie year. Huff’s production, meanwhile, is a known quantity.

This is not to suggest that McDonald is incapable of making a leap in 2024. He is considered a freak athlete with exceptional bend to get to opposing quarterbacks. Three sacks in such limited playing time can’t be dismissed as a fluke. Still, no one should expect McDonald to win as many rush battles as Huff did last season with his outrageous get-off time.      

It will be a shame if the Jets allow a homegrown player to walk out the door in free agency. What’s crazier is that it seems like it was always set up to end this way.