What’s Wrong With The Devils?
The Devils came flying out of the Christmas break with a resounding victory over Metropolitan Division rival Carolina, so any narrative that the team lost its mojo because they had three days off rings hollow.
Even the following night’s loss to the Hurricanes on the back end of the home-and-home was hotly contested, tilted by a questionable five-minute major handed out to Devils wing Timo Meier early in the third period with the score tied at 2-2.
However, as soon as New Jersey flew across the country for a three-game California swing, they reverted to old habits—the bad kind—as I enumerated in my previous post following the opening 3-2 defeat at Anaheim. At least in that game, the Devils clearly had the upper hand in terms of creating scoring chances, sporting a 57% expected goals for share, per NaturalStatTrick.com.
That hasn’t been the case since. The Devils were outplayed after the first period in Wednesday’s back-to-back loss at Los Angeles, creating a total of three high danger scoring chances over the last 40 minutes of five-on-five ice time in a 3-0 loss. OK, the Kings are a stifling team. But then, after a couple of rest days, they played lowly San Jose to a draw by all measures on Saturday until Sharks defenseman Cody Ceci beat goalie Jacob Markstrom from the blue line for the 3-2 game winner.
The four-game losing streak matches New Jersey’s season-high, though that earlier slump saw two of the defeats end with an overtime point. The Devils (24-15-3) have dropped to fifth in the East when you go by point s percentage into the Metro’s third seed.
Before the break, the Devils had been rolling the opposition to the tune of 20 shots on goal or fewer allowed in seven consecutive games during a 5-1-1 spurt. While no one should have expected such extreme stinginess to enjoy a longer life span, there is a middle road where New Jersey could play a system that limits their own contributions to opponents’ chances. In too many recent instances, unfortunately, it has looked like that whenever the Devils pushed, they got singed. The risks ran the gamut, from defense pinches without forward backup to leaving the defensive zone too early.
Look, there’s still half a season to play, so no one is suggesting panic. I’m not calling for the line blender. However, aside from getting their goalies to make an extra save from distance every game, there are two things within the organization’s control that they can try to regain the pre-Christmas magic:
1) Manage Dougie Hamilton’s minutes
New Jersey’s highest-paid player in terms of AAV ($9 million), Hamilton has been on the ice for 35 goals against at five-on-five this season. Only 14 players in the league have seen more pucks go into the back of their team’s net up close, per NST. That’s incredible on a club that is ranked fourth in the league in goals against per game.
And it’s not like the Devils are making Hamilton eat a ton of hard minutes. He’s fifth among the team’s defensemen in even strength ice time, making it up by staying on for most of New Jersey’s power play opportunities.
Yet it’s still not enough of a shelter to minimize the damage. While Hamilton’s reach from his 6-foot 6 frame is still effective, the skills seem to be slowly deteriorating (barring an undisclosed injury). He’s getting beat in races he once won with ease, while on others he appears to give less than a full effort. His puck management has been sloppy—his giveaways per 60 minutes are way up this season, not counting all the ones NHL.com fails to record.
Without the skating speed, Hamilton should be playing a safer game to avoid getting trapped. For instance, take another look at San Jose’s opening goal late in the first period, As Brendan Dillen skated across the ice after his penalty expired, Luke Hughes failed to clear a puck out from the left wall, so he will go down as the primary culprit. However, what were Hamilton and center Erik Haula doing? Hamilton was up by the blue line while Haula allowed San Jose’s Nikolai Kovalenko to sneak behind him to get a one-on-one shot from in tight that beat Markstrom.
If Hamiton, whose booming shot must be respected, produces at even strength, the Devils could withstand some of the deficiencies. Unfortunately, he hasn’t scored a goal in over a month, with just four assists in his last 14 games.
The Devils have a pair of chance-suppressing horses on the right side in Brett Pesce and Johnathan Kovacevic. They are averaging 20:48 and 19:45 of ice time per game. Head Coach Sheldon Keefe, who often talks about getting his club to feel comfortable while in uncomfortable situations, should consider bumping those up at Hamilton’s expense, even if it must be prefaced with some uncomfortable conversations.
2) Trade for a third-line center
Keefe made a statement when he sent out his fourth line to take the ice at the start of Saturday’s second period. He claimed those in his bottom six were his best that day.
Um, no.
While the grinders on the fourth line did fine in playing 200 feet away from their own net and it was nice to see Paul Cotter get his third goal since late October with an outstanding drive to the net, Haula and Cotter were on the ice for all three of San Jose’s markers. Per NST, that line gave up about as much as they created in terms of chances. The fourth line, as is usually the case, played to a scoreless tie.
Haula in particular is a problem. Devils fans are used to seeing him go through prolonged slumps, but this is getting ridiculous. Since October 30—a 30-game stretch--he has registered one goal and two assists. Meanwhile, his line has been on for 15 goals against at five-on-five, the most of any Devils forward in that span despite receiving the ninth-most ice time.
What does Keefe say? That if you’re not scoring, you’d better not be scored upon?
If I had any faith in the Devils’ internal options, it would be an easy switch. However, fourth line center Curtis Lazar—and Justin Dowling while Lazar was out with a knee injury—have given the team nothing offensively either, so it’s now time to look for the trade opportunities General manager Tom Fitzgerald had previously alluded to. Claude Giroux remains my ideal target, but Ottawa is annoyingly hanging around a Wild Card slot, so I doubt he’ll get moved any time soon. The Islanders, should they be sellers, have two centers (Brock Nelson and J.G. Pageau) who’d fit if the money can get worked out.
Haula still provides value: Per NST, the Devils have allowed only three goals during the 60 minutes he’s been on the penalty kill and he’s won 55.4% of his faceoffs, good for 24th in the league among the 105 centers who have taken at least 300 draws this season.
The Devils just need an upgrade so they can drop Haula down a line at even strength.