What Next, Nets?

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Now that the Summer Leagues have concluded, the usually entertaining NBA offseason may resume its course. Noteworthy player movement has been minimal over the last two weeks. Not only are several teams waiting on LeBron James’ next decision (or is it still “Decision”?) as to the next stop on his remarkable journey, so apparently is Commissioner Adam Silver, who wants certainty for his TV partners’ schedules.

The theory goes that once James’ situation gets settled, some of the other teams left out will pivot. Younger restricted free agents, such as Detroit center Jalen Duren and Denver forward Peyton Watson, will come to terms, most likely with their incumbent clubs. The same goes for grizzled veteran UFAs like James Harden and Draymond Green. DeMar DeRozan might be the most accomplished FA in the market who will find a new home, and it’s questionable whether he’ll find someone to pay him over the league minimum.

What this means for the Nets is unclear. They are currently not mentioned as potential landing spots for any of the above names. Once the Julius Randle trade became official on July 10, Brooklyn’s once ample salary cap space dwindled to at most a little above $11 million, according to Spiotrac.com, and that’s only because they’re holding off on the signing of free agent center Moritz Wagner, who is slated for an approximately $9.2 million cap hit.

Though the Nets could slot Wagner into an exception, they won’t have enough room to go big game hunting on their own. I don’t see a major sign-and-trade in their future either. Perhaps they could finagle their way into a blockbuster as a third team via consuming some of that cap space for a salary dump in exchange for a Draft asset.

The scenario gaining the most traction is the one that has General Manager Sean Marks negotiating an extension for forward Michael Porter Jr., who would otherwise have to play on an expiring contract and thus immediately be subject to boundless trade distractions. The Nets could frontload a new deal—teams can go over the cap to sign their own players and Brooklyn is nearly $58 million under the first apron—on something like a 4-year, $180 million offer.

Marks told reporters last week in Las Vegas that the organization isn’t rushing to the bank to pay Porter, but Marks and Porter’s agent Mark Bartelstein, who leaked that talks would begin in the late summer, could merely be playing leverage games. However, Marks typically doesn’t blink until he’s poked in the eye, and the urgency level as it stands is still relatively low. I expect him to remain patient when it comes to Porter, just in case something pops on other fronts.

Nets fans, though, have to hope something does. For this is not a team that is built to make a substantial leap from last season’s debacle. Oh, the games may be more competitive—the rights to Brooklyn’s 2027 first-round pick is subject to a swap with Houston, so any plan for a third consecutive season of tanking is off the table—because they’ll actually be trying to win. But where will that take them?

Las Vegas oddsmakers don’t think it will be very far. DraftKings has Brooklyn’s early over/under win total for 2026-27 at 22.5, just 2.5 more than last season’s ugly number Only Sacramento is projected to be worse, and I think that’s debatable based on paper.

Marks can’t possibly disagree, even if he’s high on rookie point guard Mikel Brown Jr. and the growth of the five sophomores from last year’s rookie class, particularly Egor Demin. It’s difficult to fathom a GM constructing a more porous starting five defensively than the hypothetical front line of Porter, Randle, and either Day’Ron Sharpe, Wagner, or Danny Wolf in the middle behind Demin and one of Brown or Nolan Traore. No perimeter stopper, no rim protection, etc.

In late-game situations, expect Randle to pound the rock, which wouldn’t be so terrible if this was 2020. Last season, the 31-year old shot 14-for-33 from the field, including 0-for-8 from deep, in what NBA.com defines as clutch situations (games within a five-point margin in the last five minutes) to go along with 14 assists to 15 turnovers on a very good Minnesota squad. I can’t recall a player with a reputation that combines such divergent traits of ball sharing and ball stopping.

Head Coach Jordi Fernandezs will be under stress this season if this is the team that takes the court. He’d want his club to play fast, but Randle isn’t known for his transitions. In either direction. Fernandez instructs his guards to get into opposing ballhandlers, but Nic Claxton is gone, along with any hope that the inevitable parade of blow-bys will be remedied by the help defense, an area where the 6-foot 10 Porter is notoriously deficient. The one stat that Fernandez probably wouldn’t have to take issue with is three-point volume. Three-point efficiency, unfortunately, would be another matter.

I’m always asked by fans. “What would you do?” As if that’s my job. Unfortunately, I don’t have insights into who is making calls on which players. I can play with trade machines to make suggestions, but the Randle acquisition all but killed S&T opportunities because the incoming team takes on the new first-year salary while the trading team’s cap space reduction is merely last season’s number. In other words, the Nets would need to send out something like $30 million in 2026-27 contracts to teams whose room would decline by amounts in the teens. It’s difficult to make the math work, even if other clubs got involved. Brooklyn would have to dump Terance Mann onto some team with a trade exception, and probably Noah Clowney too.

Here’s an example of one that does work, at least according to Spotrac.com:

Brooklyn: Trades for Watson, who signs a 4-year, $120 million contract, upgrades Chaney Johnson to a standard deal, and signs another minimum contract player

Denver gets Ben Saraf, Brooklyn’s 2027 first-round pick from the Mikal Bridges trade with New York and Memphis’ 2028 second-round pick, Orlando’s 2030 second round pick via New Orleans, and one of the Thunder’s seven overseas Draft stashes

New Orleans gets Clowney (using its biannual exception)

Oklahoma City gets Mann (using the Lu Dort trade exception) and two of Brooklyn’s second-round picks

Though the Thunder always seem to be down to add more picks and the Pelicans would get the still-young Clowney for a 2, there is no indication that Denver would be willing to part ways with Watson or that Marks has the same goo-goo eyes over him that Porter said has in a social media post. It’s silliness.

If not something in that neighborhood, though, then what’s next, Nets?