We’ll Know More About How Much The Nets Have Improved In Next Two Matchups
You can only beat the teams that show up at your door, so it would be disrespectful to discount the Nets’ recent surge that has seen them rise to within 2.5 games within first place Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference following Wednesday night’s 143-113 blowout of severely shorthanded Golden State. The sellout Barclays Center crowd may have bought tickets to see stars Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andrew Wiggins and instead got long looks at reserves like Jonathan Kuminga, who went 1-for-9 with 4 turnovers, but the win counts the same as if the defending champs were fully loaded.
That’s not Brooklyn’s fault, just like they couldn’t help it when other All-Stars like Damien Lillard (Portland), LaMelo Ball (Charlotte), Bradley Beal (Washington) or Dejounte Murray (Atlanta) happened to be out of service in their meetings during the Nets’ current hot streak of seven consecutive victories and 11 wins in their last 12 games.
However, it would also be a mistake to assume that these random regular season outings, even taken in the aggregate, are translatable to games of greater consequence. A better gauge, though they certainly won’t be determinative either, will be found in Brooklyn’s next two contests—at home versus Milwaukee on Friday and then a trip to third-place Cleveland on Monday.
How the Nets match up against these big and versatile direct competitors who just faced each other on Wednesday (a 114-106 Cavs win at home) will be fascinating to me. Obviously, health will always have to be accounted for, so if Milwaukee’s All-Star wing Khris Middleton can’t make it back from his knee injury by Friday, it will take some of the luster out of the affair. The same goes for Brooklyn star guard Kyrie Irving and the calf issue that made him a late scratch against the Warriors (and squashed what would have been the first time Brooklyn entered a contest this season with a clean injury report).
For the heck of it, though, let’s just assume for this purpose that both players will be available on Friday. You can also throw out the Bucks’ 110-99 victory over visiting Brooklyn on October 26—the Nets are of a totally different mindset and level of connectivity than they were when former Head Coach Steve Nash was running the show. Since Jacque Vaughn took over on November 1, Brooklyn has gone 18-7 and are much closer to figuring out how they have to play in these type of games. Ben Simmons looks healthy, spry, and much more comfortable in his integration on both ends. The bench has received a much-needed injection from forwards Yuta Watanabe and T.J. Warren, both of whom can score from different levels and have the size and switchability skills to avoid being exposed on the defensive end. When at full strength, the Nets can also come at you with all-time three-point shooting threats Joe Harris and Seth Curry off the bench.
Most importantly, you can count on one hand the number of players in the league who are having the all-around impact of Nets forward Kevin Durant these days. Scoring in every conceivable manner (he leads the league in pull-up shooting percentage at 55.4%--no other player with at least 75 pull-up attempts is over 50%, including second-place Irving), playmaking, one-on-one defending, rim protection, etc.—KD is playing at an MVP level.
However, so is Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is third in the league in scoring using his freakish combination of length, strength and athleticism. Because neither team wants their star to grapple with foul trouble, it will be rare to see these two guard each other, even in Brooklyn’s switch-heavy defensive scheme—the Nets should certainly risk going under screens with Antetokounmpo as the ballhandler since he is shooting just 65-for-244 (26.6%) outside the restricted area this season, per NBA.com, including 25.9% from three-point ranges. Picking your poison, you’d go with letting Giannis fire away from distance every day of the week.
That allows the Nets to assign the unenviable task of Antetokounmpo’s primary defender to Nic Claxton. The proximity to the basket gives Brooklyn’s rising center opportunities to help with rim protection and rebounding whereas he’d have to stay close enough to contest open looks from Milwaukee’s three-point shooting bigs Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. Let Durant have those assignments.
I’m sure you’ll see a number of possessions, either at the beginning or when Claxton rests, with Simmons getting a turn on Giannis. That’s risky since Simmons has still been quite foul prone and is liable to pick up some soft ones in simple one-on-one coverage. I’d rather see Simmons take on the challenge from Bucks physical guard Jrue Holiday over Irving, who has been more engaged defensively since the coaching change but still switches on stiff breezes. However, I think it’s more likely that Vaughn will want Simmons’ size on Middleton, with Royce O’Neale guarding Bucks wing Grayson Allen.
Like the Nets, Milwaukee has shooters galore coming off their bench. Pat Connaughton has struggled since his return from a calf injury and newly-acquired Joe Ingles has played just two games, but the Bucks have received excellent minutes from young players like Jordan Nwora and rookie MarJon Beauchamp. In addition, backup bigs Portis and Serge Ibaka are noted Net-killers.
Brooklyn has been cleaning up their defensive backboards much more efficiently during this streak (12th in the league defensive rebounding percentage over their last seven games) but will have difficulties matching up with Milwaukee’s size should their strategy make pounding the glass a priority—the Bucks are ninth in the league on offensive rebounding percentage and 12th in second chance points per game. At least the Nets will have a fighting chance if they continue playing bigger in lieu of lineups in the Nash Error that used to have Irving sharing the court with undersized guards like Curry, Patty Mills, and/or Cam Thomas.
It will be a similar issue in Cleveland, where the Twin Towers of former Net Jarrett Allen and sophomore Evan Mobley—and veteran Kevin Love off the bench--can wreak havoc getting after rebounds. The difference there will be the Cavs’ speed advantage at guard with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland. The Cavs will run more traditional pick-and-rolls hoping to get Garland/Mitchell downhill or open from behind the three-point arc. Mitchell is shooting a career-high 42.8% from deep while Garland is a more-than-respectable 38.2% three-point shooter.
Matchups here are easier to predict: Claxton on Allen, KD on Mobley, Simmons on Garland, O’Neale on Mitchell, and Irving on lesser threat Isaac Okoro.
These games will undoubtedly prove to be challenging, as the Nets will be facing the No. 3 (Milwaukee) and No. 1 (Cleveland) ranked defensive teams in the league in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions. With the high-octane Nets, though, it’s always about their own defense.
And, as with every NBA team, their health.