Volpe’s Third Out Pays Off In Yankees’ Thrilling Comeback
It turned out there can be a benefit to Anthony Volpe making the third out of an inning.
The Yankees third-year shortstop’s failure to deliver with two on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning during Thursday’s tied contest versus Seattle at Yankee Stadium allowed him to start the tenth on second base. After a pair of walks moved him over to third, Volpe scored on Aaron Judge’s short fly ball to center thanks to a fantastic head-first slide around Mariners’ catcher Cal Raleigh’s sweep tag attempt to give the Bronx Bombers a thrilling 6-5 victory in a game where they were no-hit for the first seven innings and trailed, 5-0.
New York won its fourth straight game following a six-game skid that knocked them out of first place in the AL East. No Yankee has struggled more during this stretch than Volpe, 24. He is now 4-for-38 with no walks in nine July games. Only three of 255 MLB players with at least 20 plate appearances have posted a worse on base percentage, per FanGraphs.com.
Having Volpe come up in a big spot has mostly been a recipe for futility all season. With two outs and runners in scoring position, he is now 8-for-54 with a .233 OBP, according to baseballreference.com. After one such recent wasted at bat, I suggested a drinking game where Yankees fans had to do a shot every time Volpe made the third out. You won’t get blackout drunk with such limited plate appearances in any game, but you’re sure to get a nice buzz.
In a prior post, I wondered if Volpe needed an eye exam, because his plate recognition has been poor. He’ll often start an at bat by taking a pitch down the middle and then chase one out of the zone. While you want Volpe to use the whole ballpark, his 22% pull percentage this month, as measured by FanGraphs, is the eighth lowest in MLB among 159 players with at least 30 plate appearances and a possible indication that he’s too often late to the ball. Last season, his spray chart on balls put in play was more evenly distributed.
The argument for keeping Volpe in the lineup has been that his defense makes up for any downturn in his batting production. Well, Volpe has been no better than average in the various metrics this season. Besides Volpe’s third-most 11 errors, BaseballSavant.com has him 28th out of 34 qualifying shortstops in “outs above average” while FanGraphs’ review of Statcast’s range calculation showed a negative fielding run value that placed him 23rd among the 28 who played at least 400 innings at his position.
Even Volpe’s vaunted baserunning, which won Thursday’s game, has seen a drop in consistency. Among the 70 players with at least 10 stolen bases this season, Volpe has the lowest success rate at 59%, having been gunned down 7 times, including three times in six attempts of third base. He was 28-for-35 (80%) last season, including 11 swipes of third (tied for the fifth most in MLB) in 13 tries. The YES announcers recently discussed whether pitchers have figured out his rather unique and aggressive jump leads, though he’s only been picked off once.
Like other Yankees fans from New Jersey, I have been rooting for Volpe, who played high school ball at Delbarton in Morristown, to succeed. He may not be the second coming of Derek Jeter, but he seemed to have the necessary tools to carve out a long career for his boyhood favorite club. At some point, though, objectivity must enter the picture.
The media consensus presumes that the Yankees are on the lookout for a third baseman and pitching in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. I’m not suggesting that shortstop is that priority level, but I do think it would be prudent for General Manager Brian Cashman to find a better backup middle infielder than Oswald Peraza, who can’t hit a lick and has looked sketchy at shortstop in the three games he’s given Volpe a break. There’s no immediate help on the farm—AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre has been using a pair of 30-year olds at short while George Lombard, the 20-year old prospect at AA Somerset, is probably at least two years away.
When former Yankee Isiah Kiner-Falefa of Pittsburgh is considered one of the top shortstops expected to be made available at the deadline, the pickings are slim. However, if Cashman can find an upgrade at third base (ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests he target Arizona’s Eugenio Suarez), that’s one less spot in the batting order that will require a pinch hitter in the late innings.
That will matter when the Yankees hit October, because the days when they should feel comfortable sending Volpe to the plate with a game on the line are over. Especially with two outs.