Any Jets fan who watched the NFL Divisional Round this weekend had to come to grips with how far Gang Green is from this level. Not just the quarterback play that we hope can be magically patched up with the healthy return of Aaron Rodgers, but so much more in terms of depth of skill and coaching.
It was obvious. But will the decision makers at One Jets Drive acknowledge it?
We’ll know by what the Jets do this offseason. What a massive mistake it would be if General Manager Joe Douglas went into it with the incredulous belief that his club was a play here-and-there away—and a couple of positions that needed to be upgraded—from reaching contending status this past season. My friend wondered what would have happened had the Jets (7-10) won this or that game that was up for grabs, like New York wasn’t ridiculously fortunate (or unfortunate, depending on how you feel about their drafting 10th in April’s first round instead of fifth) to pull out victories over the Eagles and Giants.
Even so, and then what? Wild Card fodder sounds great at first for fans who haven’t witnessed a playoff game in 13 years, but every team’s bar should be higher. The Jets traded for Rodgers last offseason to get to their first Super Bowl since 1969, and they’re still miles away.
Even New York’s defense, the club’s pride and joy over the last two seasons, didn’t measure quite as high as either of next week’s AFC Championship Game combatants, Kansas City at Baltimore The Jets posted the NFL’s third-stingiest yardage allowed per game this season, but were merely 12th in points allowed.
New York’s opponents were able to dial up the third-most rush attempts in the league this season because they had little reason to fear a historically inept offense. Again, it wasn’t just the quarterback position that failed the Jets once Rodgers ruptured his Achilles on the season’s fourth snap. The offensive line execution, the wide receiver depth, and the entire operation was grossly inadequate.
It seems highly unlikely that this is a one-offseason repair job. Except Douglas has already had four offseasons banked (since he was hired in June 2019, after free agency and the Draft, I don’t count it in his record) and the Rodgers injury seemed to have provided him with his last mulligan. If the urgency didn’t entirely kick in last year (I’ll never get how Douglas came up with selecting redundant edge rusher Will McDonald IV at No. 15 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft—we can only imagine how much better off the Jets would have been had they chosen one of the wide receivers among Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison, or even tackle Anton Harrison, who stepped in to play right away for Jacksonville and didn’t allow a sack after Week 8, according to ProFootballFocus.com.), it should be in high gear starting now.
As such, how will a GM with a lousy record who might not get his contract extended in 2025 approach this offseason? Look out, Jets fans. Expect more free agency overpays, as if last year’s “haul” of Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman, Randall Cobb, and the mother of all money flushed down the toilet, Dalvin Cook, didn’t drive home the flaws in Douglas’ evaluation models.
For the moment, it seems that the Jets might be spared the loss of their first-round pick—star wide receiver Devante Adams, another Rodgers buddy, was one of several Raiders players to express happiness with the club’s retention of Head Coach Antonio Pierce, making it less likely that Adams will push for a trade that Douglas might not be able to refuse.
No worries, there are still plenty of over-30 receivers that Douglas can overpay in the new league year, like Odell Beckham Jr., Michael Thomas, or, if he’s not re-signed by Tampa Bay, Mike Evans. The problem with relying on free agency is that teams generally keep their good players, even if they have to tag them. I’ll believe that Evans and Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins will reach the market when I see it.
The same principle goes for offensive tackles, of which Douglas could use two. I was astounded to see that PFF rated Douglas’ first ever draft pick, the 2020 bust Mekhi Becton, as the fourth-best tackle expected to hit the market. Becton was tied with Tennessee’s Andre Dillard for the most sacks allowed this season with 12. Douglas could break the bank for Dallas’ Tyron Smith, but that’s a risky proposition on a 33-year old player who has missed 37 games due to various injuries over the last four seasons, including four in 2023. The Jets are trying to move on from the disastrous Duane Brown experience.
Speaking of money, another offshoot of when the GM’s job status isn’t quite aligned with the team’s talent level is that you’ll also see excessive contract rejiggerings to free up salary cap space for the new arrivals. I’d expect Douglas to push as much prorated bonus money as he can to future years—for the next GM to deal with.
The pressure on Douglas and Head Coach Robert Saleh will be enormous in 2024. They’ll be out of excuses and the fan base is out of patience. The owner? Who knows? The roster, though, has too many holes to plug in one offseason. And when the GM’s timeline doesn’t align with the talent level, it becomes a recipe for gross mismanagement.
Steve, my pleasure. I posted this for my Jets FB group Old Time Jets Guys! It’s perfect for group discussions and it’s been well received. I’m mostly a football guy but Ihave read most of your posts and you are doing great in my opinion. Agree 100% on JD going reckless with this last chance opportunity! The concern is between he and his closest advisors the results have not been good to date! His willingness to allow AR so much say is a major concern to me! The Lambeau Leapers he brought in were all terrible!
Thank for this excellent look at what the Jets organization will have to deal with. The free agent o-line situation will be the key thing to watch as to how the Jets approach April’s draft. 99% of the moc’s have us going OT/ WR in round one. And that will likely be determined or least influenced by what happens in free agency. No more Mulligan’s for JD. Looking at the organizational structure one has to wonder how Rex Hogan is still employed at this point. His only function seems to be him calling our draft picks on draft day to welcome them to the organization. He is supposed to be JD’s assistant assigned to the pro player personnel desk as well as helping scout for the draft. All reports on him from people who cover the organization like Cimini ( ESPN) Costello ( the NY Post,) the two Connor’s Rodgers and Hughes all indicate he’s not very good at what ever the heck he’s supposed to do? If that’s the case I think we are in for at least one more mediocre offseason.