When Jets General Manager Joe Douglas defended his trade up in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft to select running back Breece Hall despite the howls from analytics preachers, he noted that Hall is a “home run hitter,” the rare player who had the potential to take any touch to the house.
It’s a fair argument. Unfortunately, that isn’t who James Robinson is.
After Hall exited New York’s 16-9 win in Denver on Sunday during the second quarter and was diagnosed a day later with a torn ACL and a meniscus injury, which was followed by the announcement that Alijah Vera-Tucker, the team’s best offensive lineman, was also deemed out for the season with a torn triceps, Douglas must have felt like he needed to do something to avoid the perception that it was a Pyrrhic victory.
Hence, the trade with Jacksonville for Robinson, per Monday’s report from NFL Network’s Ian Rappaport. New York’s cost will be a 2023 fifth-round pick unless Robinson rushes for fewer than 260 yards as a Jet, in which case the price drops to a sixth-rounder.
That’s still abnormally high for a replacement running back who will be a restricted free agent after the season. Robinson is only 10 months removed from the torn Achilles injury that prematurely ended his 2021 campaign and was dealing with “lower body issues” last week, according to Jacksonville Head Coach Doug Pederson, which was why he played just 12 snaps against the Giants on Sunday without a carry or pass reception (he was targeted once).
Pederson was clearly phasing Robinson out in favor of 2021 first-round pick Travis Etienne anyway. After getting called on for 51 carries and 6 receptions over the first three weeks, Robinson was given just 33 touches over the next three weeks prior to Sunday’s benching.
Even when Robinson was at his best as an undrafted rookie in 2020, he was more of a workhorse than an explosive back. Just 20.6% of his 1,070 yards that season were deemed breakaway yards (rushing yardage that went longer than 15 yards), per ProFootballFocus.com, which ranked 33rd among 47 backs with at least 150 carries. For comparison purposes, Hall is seventh in the category among 53 RBs with at least 30 rush attempts this season. (Note: one 50-yard Robinson run has boosted his 2022 breakaway percentage number; he only has seven other carries that went for longer than 10 yards compared to 15 for Hall).
Running backs in general are mostly (not entirely) a function of the team’s offensive line. The Jets’ blocking has been inconsistent at best this season and will surely suffer now that AVT is added to the growing pile of tackles on the club’s injured reserve. George Fant and Max Mitchell are possibilities to return at some point, but both are out for Sunday’s showdown with AFC East rival New England. Maybe Douglas should have saved the pick for a trade for another lineman, though it’s still possible he could address both issues before the November 1 deadline.
According to NFL’s Next Gen stats, Robinson is averaging minus-0.04 yards over expected per attempt this season, which ranks 32nd among 50 qualified RBs. He’ll add yardage after contact, but isn’t any better at that than the Jets other back Michael Carter, who finished 16th last season in YAC per rush attempt.
The bottom line is if the Jets (5-2) went into this trade thinking they needed another back who can get them two-to-three yards on first down, then they’ve got their man. It may seem like a grand gesture by Douglas to show that the organization is all in on making the playoffs this season, but since Robinson likely won’t replicate the type of explosive plays that made Hall such a wonder, his impact will be marginal. For such a player, I’m not sure the Jets needed to expend any draft capital to get that.
You mentioned symbolism in the headline, but didn't really analyze that part of it. The fact that JD is making trades at all is a symbol to his own players that he isn't throwing the towel in on 22-23. And you definitely can't analyze the Robinson trade properly until we know what the team will look like post Nov 1. All trades are gambles, and Joe is gambling he can continue a strong running attack if he gets a few players back from injury and adds another player or two. For a chance at the first playoff appearance in a million years? You take that gamble.