To Rise To Elite Company, Jets D Must Force More Turnovers
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Some of the unknown questions about the 2023 Jets will start to come into focus on Monday night when the Bills invade MetLife Stadium for the regular season opener.
With their Hall of Fame bound Aaron Rodgers calling signals instead of the quarterback dreck these parts have too often been subjected to, anything can happen. At 39 and coming off a substandard final season in Green Bay, does he still have the juice, especially if the Jets’ shaky offensive line doesn’t hold up against a top-flight defense (even when missing star edge rusher Von Miller)? Or will he be just what the doctor ordered to elevate this team into playoff contention after 12 consecutive also-ran seasons?
While the Jets offense is something of a blank slate, we do have some history and continuity to fall back on when it comes to analyzing how New York’s defense matches up with Buffalo and its quarterback Josh Allen. The Bills have a 6-3 record in Allen’s “starts” versus New York, though it includes Buffalo’s 13-6 loss in the 2019 season finale in which he barely played.
Though the series has been mostly one-sided, with the Bills winning six of the last seven meetings in which Allen materially participated, the Jets defense has fared fairly well in the majority of those affairs. Buffalo scored more than 20 points in just three of those seven contests and New York held Allen to under 60% passing in the last three games.
Allen has hurt the Jets (and virtually every other team) with his legs, rushing for 456 yards on 70 carries with 6 touchdowns in the series, but he does tend to cough it up, losing the ball 6 times on 8 fumbles in the 8 games. In fact, it has been Allen’s turnovers that have been the most striking predictor of these games’ outcomes. The Jets had five takeaways in their two victories versus just eight in their six defeats—and four of those eight came in the 2019 season opener when New York blew a 16-0 lead in the last 20 minutes.
If you watched HBO’s “Hard Knocks” series, you heard Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh describe his defense’s mission as “getting the ball back to the offense.” Of course, that could mean forcing a punt, but coming up with takeaways would be so much better. And if the Jets really want folks to put this season’s D in a historical context along with such elite units as the 1985 Bears, as cornerback D.J. Reed aspires to, they can start by vastly improving their takeaway count.
Gang Green finished just 29th in the league last season in that category, with 12 interceptions and four fumble recoveries. For perspective, the Bears led the NFL with 54 takeaways in 1985.
There is an element of luck involved, especially when it comes to fumble recoveries. Only the Steelers recovered a lower percentage of forced fumbles on defense than New York last season. However, only six teams had fewer opportunities. You’d think that a team that hypes itself as one which plays with extreme violence would generate more fumbles.
New York’s interception total was also rather unimpressive last season, tied for the 19th-most in the league. Again, it’s counterintuitive when you saw that the Jets boasted the league’s third-best pash rush pressure percentage, according to pro-football-reference.com, and their defensive backfield was highly-rated.
Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner, Reed and Michael Carter II were outstanding last season, ranking first, 14th, and 32nd, respectively, in ProFootballFocus.com’s pass coverage grades among the 107 cornerbacks with at least 300 snaps. They combined for 41 pass breakups, more than any other NFL trio. Yet they only came down with 5 interceptions all season. Safety Lamarcus Joyner led the team with 3 picks, and he’s no longer on the team, replaced by second-year undrafted free agent Tony Adams.
Catching the ball—not just swatting it away—is the next level for this unit. Unofficially, safety Jordan Whitehead probably had eight dropped interceptions last season.
As I’ve noted ad nauseum, the Jets defense will be more vigorously challenged this season, with their most prolific opponents coming in the early portion of their slate. Allen, with his arm, size, and athleticism, will present unique complications when it comes to how he needs to be schemed.
But he will also present opportunities for those times when his brain cramps and he gets careless with the ball in his hands. For the Jets to get off on the right foot, they will need to take advantage of those opportunities.
Prediction: Bills 26 Jets 20