Thunderous Nets Win Halted Losing Streak, Not Trade Speculation
Marks Must Be A Seller This Deadline
The Nets stopped the bleeding and their five-game losing streak by defeating Oklahoma City, 124-115, at Barclays Center on Friday night, but I doubt it will stop the rampant speculation about what will transpire over the next month through the NBA’s February 8 trade deadline.
That Brooklyn came a little too close to blowing a 32-point third quarter lead, allowing the Thunder to close the deficit to within six points in the final minute, reminded fans that though the win was a much-needed relief, the feeling could easily be temporary. As such, the team as currently constructed doesn’t warrant much of a remaining shelf life.
As I’ve noted previously, this Nets squad was never intended to be high-achieving in its first full season following the dismantling of its superstar era. Even after a solid 12-9 start, Brooklyn’s flaws were all too obvious to expect anything more than a low playoff/play-in seed. With Mikal Bridges, Cam Thomas, and Spencer Dinwiddie all mired in rough shooting slumps, the Nets have been struggling mightily on both ends in losing 10 of their previous 12 games.
On offense, they had been running the fifth-most isolation plays per game this season going into Friday’s contest yet were 18th in efficiency, per NBA.com. Until Brooklyn can obtain that special kind of player like OKC’s Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, the league’s second-most successful isolation ballhandler this season behind the Clippers James Harden, they will be irrelevant when it comes to challenging the league’s elite.
Of course, the Nets (16-20) are more likely to pare off pieces by the deadline than add such a transformational player. Staying below the luxury tax line is the more realistic priority this season. The good news, though, is that Brooklyn boasts a few assets, some of whom are on expiring contracts, that could prove valuable to a playoff contender. Prudent asset management requires General Manager Sean Marks to evaluate which of those he intends to extend while maximizing the return on those whom he doesn’t foresee returning in 2024-25.
The most obvious example is Royce O’Neale. It pains me to put him atop this list because I have become comforted by the way he embodies a certain toughness that is in short supply among the rest of the roster. However, 3-and-D guys are usually hot commodities at this time of year, and O’Neale’s relatively bargain ($9.5 million) salary cap hit on an expiring deal makes him even more attractive. Though it is often asserted that one can never have too many wings, Brooklyn happens to have a bit of a glut at the position, which is why O’Neale has been receiving inconsistent minutes lately—not including garbage time, he has logged more than 20 minutes just twice in the last 16 games.
At 30, O’Neale might not fit in the Nets’ long-term vision. If that’s how Marks sees it, he has to be moved. Since the new collective bargaining agreement has resulted in teams holding onto their first-rounders for dear life, Brooklyn getting back the 1 they sent to Philadelphia two years ago to get O’Neale here might be wishful thinking.
Remember the sadly-discontinued animated YouTube series “Game of Zones”, particularly the episode that hilariously parodied Marks’ quest early in his tenure to acquire awful contracts in exchange for draft picks? Well, those were some of his best moves to bring Brooklyn back from the abyss. There aren’t as many now as in the old days (and Brooklyn already has perhaps the worst one of them all in Ben Simmons), but if a 1 is off the table in a straight-up deal for O’Neale, maybe the strategy can be reprised.
For the Nets also have Dinwiddie to sweeten the deal. I may have a low opinion of him as a lead guard, but he thrived as a tertiary option in Dallas, including during their run to the 2022 Western Conference Finals. Brooklyn also has an $18 million trade exception from the Kevin Durant trade last year that will expire after the deadline for which they can use to split trades if needed.
For example, the rising Thunder might want another 3-and-D wing and a more experienced backup behind Gilgeous-Alexander for the postseason. They have a pair of older players in Davis Bertans and Vasilije Micic who make decent money but don’t receive a lot of playing time because they’re not that good. Micic has two more seasons totaling nearly $16 million due to him while Bertans is guaranteed $5.25 million next season. If an O’Neale/Dinwiddie exchange for those two can’t bring back AT LEAST one first-rounder, then I can’t see how any trades will get done this season. (How ironic would it be if the conveyed pick was the 2024 1-through-4 protected one that originated from Houston, since the Rockets own Brooklyn’s pick from the first Harden trade?)
You may wonder: What’s in this for Brooklyn? Again, it’s just a natural part of the transition. One very good win over a top team hasn’t altered their prospects one notch—this is still a team in dire need of a reconfiguration.
Besides getting something for players who I don’t believe Marks should re-sign this summer, it will open up opportunities during the second half of the season for rookies Jalen Wilson and, if he’s healthy, Dariq Whitehead to play. I would argue that the Nets wouldn’t see as much of a drop-off going with Dennis Smith Jr. as the starting point guard as many might think. Smith’s major flaw is his shooting, and opponents are now also going under screens set for Dinwiddie after he’s been bricking 3s all season. Here’s the per-36 comparison:
Dinwiddie: 16 points, 7.3 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 39.4/31.9/77.1 shooting split
Smith: 14 points, 7.4 assists, 6.3 rebounds, 42.1/27.9/80 shooting split
Hardly any differentiation there, and that doesn’t factor in Smith’s more significant positive defensive impact. And if Simmons’ back ever allows him to see action again this season (not that I’m counting on it) so Smith could return to a bench role, even better.
Beyond something of this nature, I just don’t see Marks making other bold moves. Maybe some team will tempt him with a second-rounder for a bench player like Lonnie Walker IV. From my vantage, the organization still thinks highly of long-term core players like Bridges, Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and pending free agent center Nic Claxton. A decision on the polarizing Thomas can be deferred until the summer.
Marks and the Nets, though, have a tendency to surprise. In Brooklyn, the more things change, the more things change. So it also wouldn’t shock me if we are in for a tense 33 days after all.