The Key Metric Fields Must Improve To Lift Jets
For a quarterback with as much speed and athleticism as Justin Fields possesses, he sure takes an awful lot of sacks. 151 of them over 45 career NFL games (not including 5 mop-up appearances) in 4 seasons, a per-game rate that was exceeded by just three qualifying QBs (rookie Caleb Williams, Will Levis, and Deshaun Watson) in 2024. Even the not-so-dearly departed Zach Wilson got the ball out a tad more often during his three grim seasons in New York.
NFL stats guru Warren Sharp recently posted his analysis of how sacks impact possessions. Over the last two seasons, NFL teams score points on 40% of sack-less drives, including 25% going for touchdowns, for an average of 2.2 points per possession. Less than a third of those drives ended in punts.
Taking even one sack saw those numbers plummet to a 25% scoring chance, including a mere 8% that culminated in the end zone, for a 1.1 points per possession average. More than half the time, those drives stalled with a fourth down punt.
Though a porous offensive line will obviously trigger in an untenable amount of pressure, many sacks are on the QB. He either doesn’t feel where the rush is coming from or doesn’t process where the ball should go in a timely manner, thereby exposing himself to excessive hits.
Per Sharp, Buffalo’s Josh Allen posted the lowest percentage of sacks on pressured dropbacks over the last two seasons. If you think Allen’s elite mobility was the overriding factor in his 10.9% sack rate on pressures, take a gander at some of the other names in the top 15—Derek Carr, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins and the statue-esque Joe Flacco. Fields? He placed 30th out of 43 qualifying QBs with 23.3% of his pressures ending with sacks. (Note: Aaron Rodgers was actually worse at 23.8% as a Jet.)
Preseason doesn’t offer a clear picture as to how Fields is progressing in this aspect of his development. The Packers executed a very vanilla defensive scheme, generating pressure just once during Fields’ sole possession, according to ProFootballFocus.com. Fields easily scrambled out of it to run 13 yards to paydirt.
During practices, including the two joint sessions with the Giants this week, Fields (along with every QB) wears a red jersey to reinforce the rule against hitting the quarterback. Some of the pressures where Fields is “touched” in these drills could ultimately prove to be escapable; in other reps, Fields might be instructed to “play on” after close calls to give work to the receivers versus the secondary. Throwaways are less beneficial for the group.
But they are an integral learning point for young QBs. Unfortunately, the reports from the Giants’ practices weren’t promising. The Big Blue defensive line ate up the Jets starting five on many 11-on-11 snaps. The beat writers jotted down a bevy of sacks and/or plays that might have been sacks but weren’t whistled dead. When Giants edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux was asked afterwards for an evaluation of Fields, he said he honestly couldn't give one because Fields had to spend so much time running and scrambling away from the Giants' pass rush.
Again, only those with access to the 11-on-11 film can fairly allocate blame on those reps. What we do know is that Fields has a tendency to hold the ball—he averaged 3.09 seconds in the pocket, the third-longest among the 47 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks last season, per PFF. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing for a dual threat player—Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts were the two QBs who waited longer on average—but what matters is the result of such deliberateness. Jackson, for instance, averaged 9 yards per attempt while being sacked on just 10.9% of the pressures when delivering the ball after 2.5 seconds, per PFF. Fields, meanwhile, posted a YPA of a little less than 7 with a 20.6% percentage of pressures turned into sacks.
The Jets haven’t confirmed if or how much Fields will play in Saturday’s exhibition against the Giants. Considering the franchise’s depressing history of seeing their QBs go down with injuries during these meaningless affairs, fans shouldn’t be upset with rookie Head Coach Aaron Glenn if he kept Fields in bubble wrap for the remainder of the preseason. Then again, the best way to learn how to play the position properly is by doing it.
As one would expect, the Jets keep publicly backing Fields as he’s been going through an up-and-down training camp. During his press briefings, Glenn routinely mentions how Fields is “a grown man.”
That may be true from a physical and emotional prism, but until Fields figures out how to avoid taking those drive-killing sacks, there’s still plenty of room for him to grow as an NFL QB.