Solving The Upcoming Devils Defense Dilemma
The cardinal rule of personnel management is that you never make a decision before you absolutely have to.
That doesn’t mean others can’t speculate about it.
As it pertains to the Devils, injuries to top-four defensemen Brett Pesce and Luke Hughes has allowed for the rise of the undersized Seamus Casey. The 20-year old’s play through the team’s first six games has made it difficult for the organization to plan how to proceed once everyone returns to health.
I’m sure the original blueprint showed Casey gaining valuable experience through sheltered minutes for a few games while top free agent signee Pesce fully recovered from a fractured fibula he suffered during last season’s playoff run with Carolina. Then Casey would be sent down to AHL Utica where he would be juiced with increased ice time so could take what he learned in The Show to further develop the skills necessary to succeed in a more full-time role upon his return.
Only Casey registered three goals and an assist in his first five Devils contests, raising eyebrows throughout the club’s management structure. I mean, I know it’s only six games, but can you think of a time when the NHL leader in goals scored by a defenseman per 60 minutes was sent down to the minors?
He’d have to have been an absolute mess in his own zone, as Devils Head Coach Sheldon Keefe theorized after New Jersey’s 3-0 blanking against the red-hot visitors from Utah on Monday afternoon. Well, though the Devils operated with just a 40.8% expected goals for percentage with Casey on the ice at five-on-five over the first six games, the actual goals were: Devils 3, Opponents 1, per NaturalStatTrick.com.
Sometimes, though, those stats can be misleading. Casey was a plus-one during New Jersey’s 4-2 loss at Carolina on Tuesday night’s back end of a back-to-back, but that was only because he stepped on the ice as Jack Hughes burst into the Hurricanes zone and wristed home his first goal of the season to give the Devils a short-lived 1-0 lead. Otherwise, Keefe had to limit Casey’s minutes to keep him away from the more difficult matchups that arose from the home Hurricanes having the last line change. Carolina still pounded the Casey/Simon Nemec pairing down low, creating about a half dozen high danger scoring chances that required the sound goaltending of Jacob Markstrom to keep the game close.
Despite the periodic struggles, there is so much to admire about Casey’s game. I’ve written previously about seeing him play as a freshman for Michigan in the Allentown Regional at the NCAA Tournament two years ago and how much he reminded me then of former Devil Brian Rafalski. Casey makes so many smart plays, such as breaking up odd-man rushes, boxing out bigger forwards in front, the pivots away from danger, and, of course, the patented toe drag before he snipes one past a surprised goaltender.
That’s why there is some talk amongst the pundit types that Nemec might be the odd man out whenever Pesce is cleared to play games (he was seen skating with the team before the Prague games two weeks ago but no update has been given since it was announced he wasn’t flying overseas). After all, he is pointless through six games and his NST advanced metrics when paired away from Casey haven’t been all that spectacular either. In addition, Nemec seemed to struggle last season when tasked with playing on his off (left) side. However, Nemec has the skills to play both special teams units, making him more valuable, whereas Casey is strictly a PP2 guy. When Luke Hughes is cleared from his shoulder rehab next month, then Nemec’s NHL job might be in trouble.
What about Johnathan Kovacevic, who was brought to New Jersey in the offseason specifically for the role of depth defenseman? Pesce plays a similar game, mostly simple but with the ability to jump into the attack in certain instances. Except Kovacevic has been terrific to date, owning the best expected goals for percentage and high danger shot percentage among the team’s d-men, per NST. And that’s while playing the heaviest minutes, including the most faceoff starts in the Devils’ own zone. Oh, and his assist on Tuesday was his third of the season, an unexpected cherry on top.
So while Casey’s start is a great story and there are some (raw) numbers that are in his favor for continuing it beyond Pesce’s return date, the one that I think matters most is this: Casey is only averaging 13 minutes per game across all strengths. That’s not sustainable when the Devils have eight games coming in 16 days starting with Thursday night’s affair in Ottawa. Let’s not burn out our defensemen in October, please.
You can’t blame Keefe for not trusting that Casey’s scoring flash is anything more than good puck luck—he’s not going to shoot 50% all season. Keefe is just not going to tell him that until he has to (and in a way that motivates him to attack his development program with the utmost vigor).