Shanahan-Inspired Handbook Should Be Amended For Jets: Just Let Wilson Throw The Damn Ball
Week 1 of the new NFL season is finally upon us and Jets fans are anxiously awaiting the debuts of new Head Coach Robert Saleh and quarterback Zach Wilson in Carolina on Sunday—so they can then judge the results of one game with the appropriate amount of context and nuance, I’m sure.
Until then, though, they are still blank slates. With regard to Saleh, the Jets’ preseason contests were not meant to be enlightening—I can recall Bill Parcells’ first year with Gang Green in 1997, when he went into Seattle for the regular season opener and smoked the Seahawks with schemes and plays that were unseen on tape all preseason.
From appearances, Saleh seems more like a cross between The Rock and Ted Lasso. Instead of “If you smell…”, his catchphrase is “all gas, no brake.” But like with the fictional Lasso, it remains to be seen whether the fresh identity and vibe Saleh hopes to culture in New York can be augmented by sound modern-day pro football theory.
For instance, Saleh has often talked about “winning third downs” as a key to success. On the face of it, it sure sounds swell. Obviously, a defense benefits greatly from a third-down stop that gets them off the field and third-down conversions allow for extended offensive possessions.
But do you know what’s better than needing to win a high percentage of third downs when you have the ball? Not needing third downs, by winning the earlier downs.
When you look it up, it’s true that the teams with the best third-down percentage last season were the ones associated with having the most prolific offenses—the Bills, Packers and Chiefs were 1-2-3. What I found more interesting, however, was that those same three clubs were in the bottom 10 of the league in terms of their number of third downs, whereas all but the Texans among the NFL’s five worst teams were in the top half. The Jets, who converted a league-worst 34% of third downs, finished with the 13th-most (206).
Strange, considering that you’d expect the teams that showed the ability to consistently drive the ball down the field would have more opportunities on third downs than those like the Jets who often went three-and-out.
How does this happen? An overabundance of early-down handoffs by conservative coaches.
Unless you have a true workhorse back like Tennessee’s Derrick Henry or Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, or a dynamic zone-read option QB like Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, running the ball consistently on 1st-and-10 is a game of diminishing returns, according to the analytics. Per Sharp Football Stats, teams averaged about three yards more per play when throwing versus running on 1st-and-10s last season. In terms of Expected Points Added per play, which many claim is the best metric, only two teams (New England and Cincinnati) had higher EPAs on first-down runs versus dropbacks, according to rbdsm.com.
In the two games he played this preseason, Wilson led the Jets on six drives, encountering 18 1st-and-10s. Eleven of those first-down plays (61%) were handoffs, which produced less than half (5.2 versus 10.9) the yards per play than when Wilson dropped back to pass.
Again, it was preseason--mostly against nonstarters, no less--so you can throw the results out with the bath water. However, it should be somewhat concerning that this is how Saleh and his staff, notably first-time offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, intend to operate.
In Sunday’s article in the New York Post, Brian Costello wrote about a handbook he obtained that laid out how the coaching staff would implement the new Jets Way. Saleh and LaFleur are disciples of Kyle Shanahan, who is known for his bent towards a heavy run-based system, so it’s no surprise that one of the listed offensive philosophies in the handbook was to maintain a 50/50 run/pass balance on early downs.
It should be noted that when Shanahan had a top-performing quarterback like in Atlanta with Matt Ryan in 2016, it didn’t matter that he ran the ball on 54% of his 1st-and-10s, per Sharp. Thanks to Ryan’s brilliance that season (a league-leading .337 EPA per play), the Falcons ended up with the fewest third-down opportunities anyway and wound up in the Super Bowl. Shanahan’s system was a lot less successful when Nick Mullens was forced to run the show last season in San Francisco.
This isn’t to say that handoffs should be totally eradicated from Gang Green’s game plan. At times, running plays can be useful, especially when it comes with quirks like misdirections or threats of a “Jet Sweep,” However, a 60/40 first-down run/pass ratio won’t be a recipe for offensive success for this team. Even the 50/50 mantra in the Jets manual (which is the league average, per Sharp) skews too conservatively, in my opinion.
At the start of every new set of downs, a top priority should be to avoid make-or-break third downs. That should be especially true when you’re developing a rookie like Wilson. Setting him up for “third-and manageable” with two short runs isn’t a win. You’re now only giving him one chance per series of downs—and that against a defense that knows what’s coming and can load up the pass rush against a shaky Jets offensive line. How about giving him multiple opportunities to earn a new set of downs?
I’m going to be saying this all season: The NFL is a passers’ league. The Jets will continue to struggle to compete until the organization gets that through their heads. To twist former Jets star Keyshawn Johnson: Just let Wilson throw the damn ball.