Rules Douglas Should Live By As Jets Approach Offseason Runway
With the NFL Combine behind us and the start to the new league year about a week away, Jets fans are either eagerly awaiting for one of the most consequential offseasons in franchise history or are inherently wired to brace for further disappointment.
The combination of nearly $50 million in salary cap space and five picks among the first 69 slots in the upcoming NFL Draft should mean that General Manager Joe Douglas possesses the wherewithal to dramatically inject a club that is coming off a 4-13 season with high-level, if not transformational, talent.
If he makes the right decisions.
Now, every GM whiffs, especially in the Draft crapshoot, but Douglas needs to somehow come away with at least a half dozen new starters in this offseason process. He can maximize his hit rate if he follows these rules:
1) It’s The Offense, Stupid
There’s this presumption making its way around town, amplified by comments from both Douglas and Head Coach Robert Saleh during Combine week, that if the Jets could just bolster their league-worst defense, that will automatically boost the development of quarterback Zach Wilson after a disappointing rookie season. That theory was debunked by, among others, ESPN’s Rich Cimini, who pointed out that Wilson was also rather lousy during the smaller sample size when he was playing with a lead. No, the best way to help Wilson is to get him a better supporting cast instead of forcing him to rely on replacement-level options at receiver and tight end (especially for the 200-plus times when offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur employed TWO of them in the formation last season). An interior offensive lineman wouldn’t hurt if Laurent Duvernay-Tardif isn’t re-signed in free agency nor would Mekhi Becton insurance at tackle. There’s enough resources to improve the defense, but offense wins games in the modern NFL, so it must continue to be the priority.
2) Grab A WR1 In Free Agency
This Draft has plenty of receiver prospects, but none are expected to jump up the board like they did a year ago when three—all of whom look like they can be stars in this league- went in the top ten. You might not see any go that high next month. Ergo, Douglas must swing big in free agency to fortify this position. Whereas the marketplace typically draws suckers into paying exorbitant prices for damaged goods, for some reason this pool has some real value. Yes, I know Douglas lavished Corey Davis with a mega-deal a year ago, but he’s at best a complementary receiver. And, as I noted in a prior post, if Davis underperforms again this season, Douglas structured the contract so that he can get out of it with a relatively paltry $667,000 dead money cap hit next offseason, according to overthecap.com. So, Davis’ presence shouldn’t preclude Douglas from going after someone like Amari Cooper or Allen Robinson II (I can’t imagine Green Bay allows Davante Adams to walk for nothing). Coming up empty here would be devastating.
3) Try To Draft Premium Positions In The First Round
Whether the Jets keep the fourth-and-tenth overall selections or trade down, Douglas can’t afford to irrationally fall in love like he did last year in the three-for-one draft-day trade for guard Alijah-Vera Tucker to fill a need at a position that makes relatively little impact. The Jets have so many more important areas to fix first. If in their evaluations the best player available at 4 turns out to be Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, it isn’t offense, but you can never have too many players who know how to get to the quarterback. Other acceptable picks would include NC State tackle Ikem Ekwonu or cornerbacks Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (Cincinnati) and Derek Stingley Jr. (LSU). The top receiver could be had at ten should Douglas so desire—if not, there are other highly-rated edge rushers and cornerbacks who project to be available. And for heaven’s sake, I don’t care if Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton is a unicorn, a merman, or any other fictional being, don’t take a safety at 4.
4) Don’t Overpay To Retain Your Own Free Agents
The old Branch Rickey retort to Ralph Kiner’s contract demands applies here for anyone from last season’ roster looking to hold up the Jets—we finished 4-13 with you; we can finish 4-13 without you. I’m sad to say that All-Pro returner Braxton Berrios also falls into this category, because the word is that he’s looking to be paid more than I initially figured. If some other team puts forth an offer in line with other starting slot receivers, the Jets shouldn’t be in a rush to match. The same goes for Duvernay-Tardif, tackle Morgan Moses, defensive lineman Folorunso Fatukasi, and safety Marcus Maye. If Douglas manages his assets correctly, those folks can be replaced by younger players or other free agents at lower costs.