Ruff Miss-hits On Reshuffling Of Devils’ D Pairs
The loss of top two centers Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier to injuries has certainly limited the Devils’ offensive creativity. But if you’re looking for the primary reason why New Jersey has lost three of its last four games, it’s not that they’ve scored only nine goals into occupied nets during that span.
No, it’s the continued defensive breakdowns, combined with below-average goaltending, that were just as prevalent when the team was a healthier 6-2-1 before Hughes slid hard into the end boards in St. Louis on November 3.
Though it’s still deemed “early” when looking at season stats, the Devils have to be concerned that they’re being outscored, 31-21, at five-on-five through 13 games, per NaturalStatTrick.com. This is a team that posted the fourth-best five-on-five goals for percentage last season.
Devils Head Coach Lindy Ruff has tried a variety of forward line concoctions in an attempt to minimize the unhealthy goals against, but the expectation for Tuesday night’s affair in Winnipeg is that he will be pulling his defensive pairs out of a hat for the first time all season.
To be clear, Ruff obviously put in much thought when constructing his new pairings, but I’m not so sure they’re the most optimal ones. Whereas previously the Devils rolled with Dougie Hamilton/Jonas Siegenthaler, John Marino/Kevin Bahl, and Luke Hughes/Brendan Smith duos, the combinations from Monday’s practice indicated that all three would be reconfigured.
From my view, all that was necessary was rescuing Hughes from the clutches of Smith, who is by far the team’s worst defenseman in virtually every NST advanced metric at five-on-five, from expected goals for percentage to actual goals for percentage. Worse, he’s hampering the development of Hughes, a 20-year old whom the Devils chose with the No. 4 overall selection in the 2021 NHL Draft. New Jersey has been outscored, 7-2, at five-on-five in the 126 minutes they’ve played together this season. Both players have been guilty of egregious errors in puck management and net front coverage, but the larger point is that neither has been able to consistently cover for the other when those have occurred.
As much as Ruff is a big fan of Smith’s off-ice impact, he probably never intended for Smith to be an everyday player. Unfortunately, Colin Miller, an offseason free agent acquisition who was expected to share the sixth d-man role, also took a tumble into the end boards (though at an October 29 practice) before he could ever suit up in a Devils uniform. Miller has been cleared to return, but he wasn’t in Ruff’s top six at Monday’s workout.
The Hamilton/Siegenthaler coupling hasn’t been great this season, outscored 9-4 at five-on-five, but the other NST numbers suggest that goaltending might be more culpable for that disparity. New Jersey is out-chancing opponents by nearly 2:1 when they’re on the ice, resulting in a 60.26% expected goals for share. As the top pairing, they’ve received the most ice time, often against the most difficult assignments.
Playing Hamilton with Hughes would bring the potential for tremendous offensive thrust to the ice, but neither is especially sound in their own end. At least Siegenthaler brings some physicality and shot blocking ability to complement Hamilton’s penchant for using his skating and long reach to end plays.
Maybe Ruff is trying to find someone who is superior to Bahl at replicating the role of departed defenseman Ryan Graves to pair with Marino. The Marino/Graves duo was excellent in a shutdown role last season—the 10 goals against with Marino/Bahl on the ice is the most of any of New Jersey’s pairings this season. We sometimes forget that the mammoth Bahl is still only 23. He is far from a finished product. The 26-year old Siegenthaler is in his seventh season, which means he has a better understanding from experience as to what he can and can’t get away with positionally.
Still, in my view, hooking up Hughes with Marino would be so much more valuable from every perspective. Hughes is a tremendous skater, only he rarely gets to showcase it outside of power plays because he’s too often scuffling alongside Smith with clearing pucks away from the Devils’ net. With a more competent veteran like Marino having his back, Hughes would theoretically have more freedom to drive offense than if he had to worry about how far up into plays Hamilton would skate.
I’ve read some who have drooled over the prospect of a larger sample size for Hamilton/Hughes because they have dominated five-on-five play in their nearly 34 minutes together this season, per NST. However, my anecdotal recollections were that those minutes were heavily weighted during times when the Devils were behind and needed to push forward, as opposed to the normal diligence required for the more typical back-and-forth play or for when New Jersey is ahead in the third period.
It’s not like the limited (23:30) ice time for Marino/Hughes has been bad—almost 60% in expected goals for percentage and 2-0 in actual goals, per NST. This is where I had always hoped the cards would land for Hughes since the preseason.
Who knows, maybe Ruff will reach a similar conclusion at some point. It certainly wouldn’t be shocking to see him reshuffle his pairings mid-game.
Photo by: AP Photo/Matt Krohn