Rock Solid Predictions For A Lost Cause Nets Season

AP

It’s still hard for me to believe that in just three years, the Nets have gone from being at the outset of their most highly-anticipated season in franchise history to one of the most dreaded.

With the new season opening on Wednesday night in Atlanta, Brooklyn appears bound for the lottery; the only question is how high up their 2025 Draft pick will be.

If the pro-tank segment of the fan base gets its way, Nets General Manager Sean Marks will purge the roster of anyone who could potentially upset the race to the bottom. Veterans Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, Bojan Bogdanovic (whenever he’s healthy), and Dennis Schroder are among the most speculated names as to who could conceivably be playing elsewhere by season’s end.

That makes it difficult to hone in on specific predictions. However, since this is my annual rite of passage forward, here goes some:

1) Ben Simmons will average zero doubles

During his three-time NBA All-Star days in Philadelphia, Simmons was a nightly triple- double threat. He has posted 33 of them in his career, including one as a Net since the 2022 blockbuster James Harden trade. Simmons’ best season was his second, where he averaged 16.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game. It’s been all downhill from there, mostly due to injuries that required two back surgeries. Like clockwork, Simmons currently claims he’s as close to full strength as he’s been since the problems first arose immediately following the trade. There’s no way of confirming this until we see if he can get through a season relatively unscathed. And since it seems cruel to pick the 54.5 game over/under, as reported by the New York Post’s Brian Lewis, my crystal ball is focused on the production during the games he does play. I’m not going to get into the “why” here, so I’ll just refer you to a tweet by NetsDaily’s Grand Poobah: “I found myself thinking that sure (Simmons) is healthy but not very good.” Succinct and accurate. That means single digit averages in the above categories despite Brooklyn’s lack of quality alternatives.

2) The Nets will finish in the top five in three-point attempts per game, bottom five in three-point percentage

The long ball is a Marks Mandate going back to his early Brooklyn days with Head Coach Kenny Atkinson. Not to say that the rest of the league hasn’t mirrored that trend, but the difference here is that Brooklyn has few players who are threats to attack the rim (Simmons used to; now he seems fearful of getting fouled in the act of shooting—he took a total of two free throws in over 51 minutes of meaningless preseason action) where shooting is most efficient. You could tell from the exhibitions that creating three-point looks, particularly from the corners, is much more of new HC Jordi Fernandez’s priority for the season. Unfortunately, quantity is not the same as quality. You’ll see some terrific possessions in the Fernandez offense where the paint is touched, forcing help and leading to quick ball movement until the Nets find their best three-point shot. But you’ll also see a bunch where Brooklyn gets bogged down passing aimlessly around the perimeter, and the result is a late-clock heave from distance. That’s why a few of their top shooters, like Johnson, Finney-Smith, and Jalen Wilson, will underperform relative to their three-point capabilities, and the team will post substandard efficiency numbers.

3) Cam Thomas will NOT average 24.5 points per game

Twenty-five points was Thomas’ stated minimum he would deliver if given the ball prior to last season, but I was informed that the even money Las Vegas line for 2024-25 is a half point less per game. I’m still going under, and not because I am underappreciating Thomas’ bucket-getting skills. I just don’t see him being able to take that much of a step up from last season, when he went for 22.5 per game. If anything, being the opponent’s sole focal point every night this season will make things so much more difficult. Plus, it doesn’t seem like Fernandez is all that interested in going with the iso-heavy offense of his predecessors. One of his first points of emphasis to the media was how he was trying to get Thomas to acknowledge the inverse relationship between his number of dribbles and his efficiency. On the plus side, I see Thomas continuing to make marginal improvements with his playmaking for others—he will top 3 assists per game for the first time in his career, though he really should have always been closer to five given how often the ball is in his hands. But raw point totals? You can count on the odd 40-burger that will be offset by nights where he’ll be double-teamed to death and blitzed on every screen, among other exotic defenses he’ll face, resulting in a 23.7 scoring average.

4) Finney-Smith will be traded for 2nd round picks, Johnson will stay

The league’s collective bargaining agreement will depress Finney-Smith’s market, as will his rental status. Traded first-round picks are reserved for All-Stars, or, in the Knicks’ case, friends from Villanova. At 31, Finney-Smith doesn’t fit Brooklyn’s amended timeline, but he’d be useful in a contending team’s rotation for his defensive versatility and satisfactory three-point shooting. The Nets will get two 2s in advance of the NBA trade deadline in return for a culture setter. Johnson, however, won’t be so lucky to escape this hellish season. Many Nets fans consider him a disappointment because A) He was signed to a 4-year $108 million contract extension in the 2023 offseason, and B) He is perceived as injury prone. To be the contrarian, the new deal was front-loaded, so he’ll be on the books for around $20.5 million next season, a reasonable compensation for one of the league’s better three-point shooters. In addition, Johnson’s basketball IQ, from my perspective, is of the highest order. That’s why I don’t see Marks feeling any urgency to just give him away like with DFS. Unless Brooklyn gets an offer it can’t refuse—and that includes at least a first rounder—Johnson stays a Net. (Side predictions: Bogdanovic gets bought out, Schroder opts to stick around to maximize his starting point guard opportunity, and Simmons will be shut down in March.)

5) NetsTank not ruthless enough to finish with the worst record

The betting odds list Brooklyn with the NBA’s lowest over/under win total at 19.5. In a prior post, I delved into why I’d go with the over. In short, this team as it stands has too many legitimate NBA players on it. Now, there are no GREAT players, so they’ll still be among the league’s bottom feeders. But that means they’ll get about 6-to-8 wins from tired teams playing on a back-to-back (or worse, from teams staying over in New York City the previous night and partying until the wee hours) and/or load managing key personnel. Then they’ll be about five more games where the Nets are randomly shooting lights out from deep—they had six such contests last season that saw them register a three-point percentage of at least 47% on 35-plus attempts. They went 5-1, the lone loss the ridiculous Luka Doncic game in Dallas. The other ten or so will come against fellow tankers or better teams taking Brooklyn lightly where Fernandez gets his guys to simply play harder.

Now, there’s no reason to fret. The worst three teams have the exact same odds (52%) for the top four Draft slots, including a mere 14% for the No. 1 overall selection. Many Nets fans are smitten with Cooper Flagg and Cooper Flagg only, but my Duke intel suggests that while he’s already projected at 17 to be a really good NBA player, he hasn’t yet shown in practices that he’ll end up being the generational and transformational star in the mold of LeBron James or even Victor Wembanyama. In other words, the next competitive Nets team will likely need Flagg and…, just like if their 2025 first round pick ends up being one of the Rutgers kids or whoever is atop Marks’ board.

So don’t get into fits of disapproval with every Nets win this season. They will come few and far between anyway.

Prediction: 21-61 (29^th of 30 NBA teams, beating Wizards)