Rinse & Repeat: Jets Set To Overpay More Free Agents, Then Rue Decisions

Tom Horak—USA Today Sports

Excuse me if I missed some things.

The cons:

A 13-year streak of regular season futility.

A coaching staff (deservedly) on a flaming seat.

New Jersey taxes.

Northeast weather.

The pros:

A 40-year old Aaron Rodgers coming off an Achilles rupture.

That’s what the Jets face as they attempt to sell the NFL’s free agents starting with Monday’s “legal” tampering period in advance of the March 13 new league year.

I’m betting it will be tough. Many top players prefer places of employment that will presumably compete for Super Bowl glory. Even with Rodgers back, can General Manager Joe Douglas convince anyone his team will be able to join that relatively exclusive club in one offseason? The reports of epic dysfunction within the locker and coaches’ rooms won’t help.

How can I predict that the Jets will be stuck overpaying old and/or mediocre players for the privilege of disappointing a tortured fan base? Because that’s what ALWAYS happens—the “Jets Tax” is real.

Just look at what the Jets purchased in past free agent markets. Douglas was fleeced in deals for wide receivers Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Mecole Hardman, and Corey Davis, tight end C.J. Uzomah, tackle Duane Brown, guard Laken Tomlinson, edge rusher, Carl Lawson, and the mother of all boneheaded signings, running back Dalvin Cook. 

And that’s just within the last three years.

To be fair, I shouldn’t ignore Douglas’ handful of hits—tight end Ty Conklin and defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson performed serviceably while cornerback D.J. Reed was a home run—but free agency has generally never been the answer to the franchise’s prayers throughout its mostly miserable history.

As it stands, Douglas has about $20.7 million in salary cap space, per overthecap.com, but that’s before expected contract restructurings and the room required to sign their 2024 Draft picks. New York reportedly used some of that space with Sunday’s re-signings of safety Chuck Clark and tight end Kenny Yeboah and then inking former 49ers cornerback Isaiah Oliver, though terms weren’t disclosed.

The net still isn’t a heck of a lot relatively speaking, especially when you consider the team’s desperate needs for as many as three offensive linemen and a starting receiver and defensive tackle (assuming Jefferson isn’t re-signed). Money also needs to be set aside to bring back the veteran kicker/punter duo of Greg Zuerlein and Thomas Morstead. Special teams ace Justin Hardee, another free agent, always seems to be a priority at One Jets Drive, so that’s another few million expected to flow out of the till. 

So for those awaiting some big splash, I’d consider it unlikely. Other teams have more to offer, from money to ancillary benefits.

Again, that could be a good thing when you consider Douglas’ (and his predecessors’) records in free agency. The only unaccounted variable is his level of urgency given owner Woody Johnson’s postseason comments. Douglas may very well be on his last straw—another failed season and even the dilettante Johnson might be convinced to blow it all up. Some football executives might take excessive risks—and mortgage the future—in situations where their jobs are on the line.

From my perspective, since I’m not optimistic about Rodgers’ ability to resurrect this moribund team from years of incompetence, I’m hoping Douglas looks for trade opportunities over spending large on free agents. It cost the Browns a fifth and a sixth rounder to acquire wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who at 24 has already accumulated over 3,000 yards in 4 pro seasons. Not that Jeudy should have been the guy, but the only remaining starter among Douglas’ 11 total picks in those above rounds since 2020 is slot cornerback Michael Carter. Note: It’s all these whiffs up-and-down the Drafts by Jets GMs over the years that have made this team a laughingstock.

Pittsburgh’s Diontae Johnson is rumored to be available for a trade—I know he’s had issues, but after reading he was ranked 5th in ESPN’s separation metrics, I wouldn’t mind seeing what he could do with Rodgers pitching it to him. I’ve heard others (L.A. Chargers Mike Williams and Denver’s Courtland Sutton are the most prominent names allegedly on the block) who should be evaluated by Douglas as a potential target. F#%* some of the lower picks, as the Rams once famously patented.

As for free agent offensive linemen, be prepared to see some outrageous offers, well outside Douglas’ budget. Mekhi Becton, Douglas’ 2020 first round bust, is listed as one of the top four free agent tackles by several outlets. That should tell you a lot. Given Becton’s struggles with weight and injuries, good luck to any team that advances him significant change. Still, it would be typical Jets to dole out a huge contract on someone like Cowboys tackle Tyron Smith or the Patriots Trent Brown and them wallow in misery when they can’t stay on the field.

The alternatives aren’t great either. Some Jets analysts suggest they target New England’s other free agent tackle Mike Onwenu. Well, EVERYONE with a tackle need will be targeting a rising 26-year old who plays a premium position. The bidding war could easily leave the Jets high and dry.

I do think Douglas will be able to find a tackle with his No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 Draft, though it will likely be a right tackle. If Alijah Vera-Tucker is moved for good to left guard, which many feel is his best position, and Joe Tippmann continues to develop at center, that still leaves holes at a tackle and a guard. My guess is that Douglas will attempt to fill those with a mid-tier guard like Baltimore’s John Simpson or Seattle’s Damien Lewis and then roll the dice on one of the injury-prone left tackles, maybe even Rodgers buddy David Bakhtiari—assuming he will be released by Green Bay.

Rinse and repeat, despite over a decade of poor outcomes.