Relax: Victory Over Lousy Jags Neither Productive Nor Destructive To Jets’ Future
Just Another Meaningless Game In A Decade Fraught With Them
There are two schools of thought coming from Jets fans after Gang Green kept the Jaguars a yard shy of the end zone to win Sunday’s contest between the worst two teams in the NFL.
To those pro-tankers (and the New York Post headline writers) who insist that New York’s 26-21 victory was Pyrrhic in nature because it basically eliminated any chance for the Jets to secure one of the top two picks in the 2022 NFL Draft, I’d respond: Take a chill pill.
Yes, the Jets will surely finish 4-13 instead of 3-14 (because they ain’t beating the Bucs or the Bills in their final two games) and, as a result, will now likely settle in at no worse than their current fourth slot. However, understand that the consensus top two picks, Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon) and Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan), are both edge rushers, and the Jets will be paying Carl Lawson and John Franklin-Myers a gazillion dollars (actually a combined $27.8 million in allocated salary cap space) to play that position next season, with a capable backup in Bryce Huff also under contract.
Edge rusher is indeed considered a premium position, but this team has other needs—many, many other needs—that can be addressed with a high draft pick. Also, the value for an edge rusher doesn’t anywhere near a quarterback’s, and this draft just happens to be relatively light on potential franchise signal-callers, which means that even if the Jets were to look to trade down, they probably won’t be receiving the same type of Godfather offers like they did in this past Draft where they selected QB Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick.
New York still has options to move the pick because they also own Seattle’s first-round selection from the 2020 trade of safety Jamal Adams, which is currently slotted at No. 6 after Chicago’s exciting fourth-quarter comeback on Sunday, according to tankathon.com. Or Jets General Manager Joe Douglas can simply stay put and use the pair of picks as an opportunity to plug some holes with guys capable of playing right away. With Carolina also cratering in the standings and owing their second-round pick to New York courtesy of the offseason trade of quarterback Sam Darnold, the Jets could have four picks in the top 40 of the Draft.
So no matter where the Jets end up slotting, it should be a transformational Draft. That also means that if Douglas whiffs on all those selections, don’t blame this one victory for the Jets’ continued mess.
Which brings me to the other side of the coin. To those who are absolutely elated after watching the Jets survive at the end and thinking that this was some positive turning point in Wilson’s development, I’d respond: Take a chill pill.
This franchise’s recent history is filled with meaningless December victories that have had a cumulative zero carryover effect into the following seasons. Remember Darnold’s last four games of his 2018 rookie season after returning from an injury? We were all so sure it would springboard him to the next level the following season. Oops.
As for Wilson, I don’t believe for a second that this game altered the narrative, as he barely eclipsed 100 yards passing against a godawful defense that was nearly as ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic as the Jets were. If not for Wilson’s one miraculous 52-yard touchdown scramble and Braxton Berrios’s electric 102-yard kickoff return for another score, I have no doubt that we’d be talking about how vast the expanse is between Wilson and Jacksonville’s No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence today.
The Jets can’t even point to any progress in their process. With Robert Saleh in the Health and Safety protocols, tight ends coach Ron Middleton took over as Head Coach for Sunday’s game and immediately set out to be more aggressive in his fourth-down decision-making than his superior, even when it wasn’t appropriate to do so according to the analytics. I mean, what was with that fake field goal on a third quarter fourth-and-five from the Jacksonville eight-yard line? Also, at the end of the first half, the percentages dictated that the Jets take the three points on a fourth down from the two-yard line because New York had no chance to reap the benefit from pinning the Jaguars back when they failed.
Of course, in the decision that mattered most, Middleton did follow Saleh’s conservative “I trust my defense” roots by opting for the field goal on a fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line with 1:47 remaining. His reasoning for suddenly morphing into one of those coaches who plays not to lose instead of assuring a win right there:
“The (Jets) defense had been playing really well,” Middleton said after the game. “I didn’t think (the Jaguars) were gonna score a touchdown on us.”
What game was he watching? Was he kidding about the Jets defense, the one with five starters on the COVID-19 protocol list? The Jaguars had been driving the field all game, including an eight-play jaunt for a touchdown on their previous possession.
That one decision lowered the Jets’ win probability by 8%, according to ESPN’s model. Middleton only ended up being right by one yard because the Jaguars are masters at tanking. The final minute was a class in what not to do in end-game clock management. Without any timeouts, Jacksonville handed off into the line, costing them 20 seconds, and then watched as Lawrence opted to run out of bounds at the Jets five-yard line with 32 seconds remaining when he might have been able to score. After a second-and-goal pass was completed inbounds to the one-yard line, Lawrence inexplicably spiked the ball with 12 seconds left to set up a do-or-die fourth down. That play was broken up by Jets cornerback Javelin Guidry, but it wouldn’t have mattered if it wasn’t because the Jaguars were caught with an illegal shift.
Yeah, had them all the way, Coach. Can someone get this team a game management coordinator so that the head coach doesn’t have to go by his gut all the time? Or at least have him channel Seinfeld’s George Costanza so he can do the opposite of every instinct he has? There are charts for these types of decisions.
No, this victory should be burned alongside all the other game videos from this forgettable season—and all the other meaningless December games this team has played over the last ten years.