Projecting Who Returns To Nets Next Season
Just one more game.
Following the finale against the visiting Knicks on Sunday afternoon, this miserable Nets season will be history, one whose memories will soon be lost alongside the franchise’s many other debacles like the clubs from 2016-through-2018 that housed such promising luminaries as Sean Kilpatrick, Isaiah Whitehead, and Justin Hamilton.
What comes hereafter will remain a mystery for a few more months. In an attempt to mollify Nets fans, the organization has hyped its flexibility. Its combination of salary cap space and Draft pick inventory is the envy of the league, the polar opposite of how the talent in house is viewed.
The Nets are slated to be on the clock five times in the first 40 picks of June’s Draft. While it would be shocking if all five earn NBA contracts for next season, a certain number will displace current members. When you’re 26-55, there’s always going to be changes anyway.
Who stays? Who goes? Who knows?
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Nets relented and traded Cam Johnson, their most indispensable player, for more assets this summer, nor would I be shocked if Keon Johnson had his team option for next season exercised despite possessing one of the lowest basketball IQs among any NBA rotation player.
During Friday night’s broadcast from Minnesota, the YES Network production crew put up a graphic showing the team’s four categories for next season—those under contract, team options (including nonguaranteed contracts), restricted free agents, and unrestricted free agents. Below, I will attempt to generate (guess) the percentage chance we will see each of them in a Nets uniform come October:
Under Contract:
Cam Johnson (78%): If it were up to me, he’d retire a Net. But since Sean Marks is the General Manager, it’s his job to listen to offers this summer, especially if the superstar market is barren and the team pivots to Tank 2.0. Too bad, because the day will come when the Nets are competitive again, and then the organization will have to go out and find a Cam Johnson to complement the core. People who can shoot at an efficiency just shy of 50/40/90 while averaging 19 points per game through the All-Star break don’t grow on trees.
Nic Claxton (67%): Unlike Johnson, Brooklyn’s big man did not grab the additional responsibility by the horns this season. He’s pretty much plateaued from his level of two seasons ago, when he led the league in field goal percentage and was second in blocks. The three-point breakthrough is still on hold. However, the declining scale of his contract payouts makes him either a keeper or an attractive trade piece. I can’t decide.
Noah Clowney (92%): Though injuries that limited him to 37 games made this a disappointing sophomore campaign, Clowney’s skillset is suited for the modern game. Remember, he’ll finally be able to buy alcohol in Brooklyn in July. He’s got work to do on his body, his ball skills, and his defensive understanding, but those should get done at the HSS Practice Facility in Brooklyn.
Dariq Whitehead (96%): The Nets’ other 2023 first rounder won’t turn 21 until 18 days after Clowney. While the long-range shooting has been virtuoso during his sparse NBA minutes this season (32-for-72, or 44.4%), Whitehead’s movements on both ends remain stiff, possibly from the effects of multiple surgeries on his foot and leg. You’d have to believe the rest of the league views him as damaged goods. When the Nets guaranteed his third-year option for approximately $3.1 million in October, it basically guaranteed his return next season unless his salary is needed as filler in a trade.
Tosan Evbuomwan (97%): With Evbuomwan’s two-way deal in force for 2025-26, the Nets can hold onto him without affecting their cap sheet. His 30% three-point shooting isn’t ideal, but he brought some toughness every time he stepped onto the court, a trait noticed and appreciated by Nets Head Coach Jordi Fenandez.
Team Options:
Keon Johnson (54%): The poster child for activity without achievement. The Nets seem to LOVE his two-way aggressiveness and athleticism, even when they result in some of the dumbest plays you’ll see that night. His three-point rate is teetering around 30%, which is tough when your position is generally referred to as “shooting guard.” At 23, Johnson fits Marks’ development profile, so it’s about even money on whether he’ll be back in 2025-26 or the team eats the approximately $272,000 guarantee.
Maxwell Lewis (41%): Another young (22) and athletic development project on a low ($100,000) guarantee for next season. A streaky shooter, Lewis needs a lot of work to round out his game. But so will all the incoming rookies, who I would think will be the Nets’ priority. There’s only so many bottom-of-the-bench guys you can roster—some of them have to be ready to play rotation minutes.
Tyrese Martin (51%): In a prior column ((1) Is Martin A Nets Keeper? - by Steve Lichtenstein), I wrote about the pros and cons the Nets will evaluate when deciding Martin’s fate for next season. To summarize, Martin, 26, might be deemed a tad too old to remain in the “development” class, though there was much to like about the improvement in his game this season. He exhibited toughness in the paint on both ends, shot it around league average from deep, and made plays off the pick-and-roll. However, he doesn’t have the foot speed necessary to play Fernandez’s frenetic style, and it won’t get much better at his age. Another 50/50 call given the zero guarantee for 2025-26.
Jalen Wilson (48%): Brooklyn’s 2023 second-round pick led the team in total minutes played this season, a fact that made me gasp when I found it on NBA.com. But did he do enough with them to warrant a team option exercise on June 29? Like Martin, Wilson faces an age (24) and athleticism obstacle. In addition, he’s a bit of a tweener, too small to defend in the paint and too slow to hang with primary ballhandlers. He needed to be reliable from distance this season, but though he finished strong (18-for-his-last-38), it only brought his three-point rate up to a substandard 33%. I think the Nets can do better with this slot, though I’m not so sure the organization is ready to give up on him.
Drew Timme (27%): A fan favorite, Timme was a natural underdog story after he was elevated from G-League Long Island two weeks ago, signing a two-year NBA contract with nothing guaranteed for 2025-26. He hustled and put up some numbers using a bit of an old-school game. He’s just not very good. I can see a training camp invite, but that’s probably where the dream ends.
Restricted free agents:
Cam Thomas (98%): Estimates of where his contract value will land are still wide-ranging, but I have to believe that Brooklyn will keep their bucket-getting guard. No team is currently projected to have the cap space to give him the big bucks he might believe he deserves, and even if they finagled a way to get some, it’s rare for the incumbent team to pass on matching. The best scenario for Brooklyn is if no team puts forth an offer sheet, so the Nets can use his lower cap hold of about $12.1 million and stack their offseason maneuvers to maximize their cap build-up.
Day’Ron Sharpe (92%): Again, it’s only this high because restricted free agents tend to stay put. A one-note (offensive rebounding) player is not, in my opinion, getting a full nontaxpayer midlevel offer sheet, which means the Nets can easily match. But the above percentage would be even higher if I didn’t consider the possibility that Marks will trade him; Sharpe was allegedly a player of interest at February’s trade deadline.
Ziaire Williams (89%): This one’s more difficult, because he didn’t have the season many perceived—a 41/34/82 shooting split just isn’t satisfactory for a player at his position, even if it was an improvement from his Memphis days. Sure, we admired his defensive tenacity and penchant for getting hands on balls, but he’s not OG Anunoby or Kawhi Leonard. Just 23, Williams has room to grow, so I get that it’s too early to give up on him. But that $18.4 million cap hold could become an issue if he isn’t tendered an offer sheet.
Unrestricted free agents:
De’Anthony Melton (4%): Sorry for the injury, but next.
Trendon Watford (36%): To bump my analysis after last season: The less you saw of him on the court, the more you wanted to see him; and the more you saw him, the less you wanted to see him. A slow 6-foot 8 and 237 pounds, he’s not a point guard--yet the Nets again made him play a lot of point guard, where his tunnel vision contributed to a turnover hemorrhage. At 24, he might be amenable to another minimum contract, if the Nets have roster room after the Draft.
Reece Beekman (9%): Point guards who can’t shoot a lick aren’t long for this league, even for those under two-way contracts.
Tyson Etienne (12%): The Nets third two-way player won the team’s “Grand Chuck Award” for his cringeworthy penchant for hoisting shots as soon as the ball touched his fingertips. Per NBA.com, Etienne placed 13th out of 565 players in three-point attempts per 36 minutes over his six games this season. Thank goodness he played for Fernandez, who didn’t seem to care that he converted on just 29.3% of them. If he were bigger than 6-foot 2 and younger than 25, maybe the evaluation would go a little more in his favor.
D'Angelo Russell: (32%): I saved the most polarizing for last. I’m aware of DLo’s allure, but this hype regarding his contributions following the December 29 trade from the Lakers seems overblown. When he wasn’t injured, his performance on both ends was erratic and his on-court fit with Thomas (in just a small, 90-minute sample size) was problematic on the defensive end. And if you thought Williams’ cap hold above was outrageous, get a load of Russell’s—a little over $28 million. Unless he agrees to a bargain deal, you trade/renounce that and use the extra space to go big-game hunting or, at minimum, facilitate trades to acquire more assets.