Predictions For The 2022 Jets: Some Sprinkles Of Achievements to Help Assuage Another Painful Season
I hope Jets fans enjoyed their last Sunday without NFL football over the Labor Day weekend, for the next 18 weeks are most likely to be filled with distress.
New York is coming off a brutal 4-13 campaign, missing the playoffs for an 11th consecutive season, under the direction of rookies at Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, and quarterback. Unfortunately, just because all three are a year older, it doesn’t necessarily make them any better.
As such, there are more prognosticators who believe the Jets will post the worst record in the entire league come season’s end than have them sporting a winning record. Of course, we’re talking about the Jets, so we know based on history that this franchise will come away with a handful of victories in the second half of the season that will be devoid of any meaning other than worsening their slot at the 2023 NFL Draft.
I get that there are plenty of fans who are tired of rooting for this team to tank. They watch the games in search of little victories within each of them to ease the pain, searching for any player with potential to inspire just a fraction of hope amongst the wreckage of another losing season.
Well, I’m here to tell you that you’ll find a few of them in 2022. Here then are my not-all-bad predictions for the Jets this season:
1) The September drought will live on
The Jets have not won a game in the opening month since Sam Darnold’s first outing under center at Detroit back in 2018, a streak of 12 consecutive defeats. As if the league’s schedule makers are in the business of pranking, they have New York opening this season with four straight games versus the tough AFC North, three of them in September. Some might view the Week 2 tilt at Cleveland as “winnable”, especially in light of the suspension to quarterback Deshaun Watson, but bear in mind that among the Browns’ many strengths is a ground game (fourth in yards per game, first in yards per carry last season) behind a stellar offensive line that has the potential to pound the play-it-safe Jets defense into oblivion. Add in defensive lineman Myles Garrett wreaking havoc on whoever will be calling signals for New York—currently injured Zach Wilson or Joe Flacco—and I foresee an eyesore of an affair. Going further, my crystal ball shows that October will be almost as ugly and that New York will limp into its Week 10 bye at 1-9.
2) Carl Lawson over 9.5 sacks
I couldn’t find an official prop bet for the Jets edge rusher who missed all of last season with a ruptured left Achilles, so I made one up to highlight the end of another ignominious streak. Lawson has been chomping at the bit all through a load-managed preseason and will take out his wrath on opposing quarterbacks this season to the tune of double-digit sacks, the first Jet to break the barrier since Muhammad Wilkerson in 2015. The reports from training camp have made him look like the second coming of Reggie White, brutalizing his way upfield with speed and power moves. Another reason I’m bullish here is my faith that the Jets secondary will be much improved this season, thereby forcing QBs to hold the ball just a tick longer than optimal so that the pass rush can get home more than the seventh-lowest 33 times last season. As for one of those additions to the Jets’ defensive backfield…
3) Ahmad Gardner over 1.5 interceptions
The rookie No. 4 overall pick has the potential to impact the Jets in a similar manner as Darrelle Revis did when he covered his island over eight seasons in green. Granted, the secondary is a weak-link-in-the-chain system (Jets fans of a certain age learned this lesson the hard way watching Oilers QB Warren Moon continuously abuse Jets cornerback Don Boyd Odegard in a 1991 loss) and I always toss preseason stats into the trash, but I did find it curious that Gardner wasn’t targeted a single time in 24 pass coverage snaps in the three exhibitions, per ProFootballFocus.com. So I’ll just predict that this Sauce has some special ingredient in his game which will allow him to easily beat this DraftKings line.
4) Elijah Moore over 800 yards receiving
Injuries can always get in the way of successful betting plays, but with reasonable health, Moore will eclipse this DraftKings mark as well. The second-year wide receiver is incredibly versatile, which allows Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur to move him around to give defenses different looks. With the Jets’ tight end room dramatically upgraded so that opposing linebackers can no longer cheat off them, Moore will be the recipient of numerous slant targets, a few of which will result in explosive plays to boost his yardage total. Moore’s 4.7 average yards after the catch last season was more than respectable for a rookie (29th-best among 89 receivers with at least 50 targets, per PFF), but I’m envisioning that number rise at least a full yard in 2022.
5) Wilson Under 3,599.5 yards passing
This PointsBet line was the only individual prop bet I could find related to the Jets second-year QB. If I could guess others, it would be under 59.5% completion percentage, over 11.5 interceptions and under 17.5 touchdown passes. For the record, Wilson, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 Draft, finished with 2,334 yards passing with 9 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 55.6% completion percentage last season. His reps this preseason were cut short when he ignorantly opted to scramble downfield against the Eagles and suffered a bone bruise and meniscus tear that required surgery on the same knee that cost him four games when he sprained his PCL last season. Given Wilson’s questionable ability to stay on the field, the unders on raw totals seem like easy pickings. In addition, I’m not buying anyone’s conjecture of a major leap in efficiency. It rarely happens with a QB who was that awful as a rookie—yes Buffalo’s Josh Allen was an outlier, but he’s got a different body and was under the direction of a different (read: capable) organization. LaFleur will have the Jets handing off on early downs often, which will then set Wilson up to fail under pressure.
Predicted 2022 Season Record: 4-13 (under 5.5 wins, per FanDuel)
The good news is that the Jets’ upgraded supporting cast will have them losing more games by scores of like 24-17 instead of 34-10, but it won’t make any difference in the final ledger. And, if it makes anti-tankers feel any better, there will be teams (Seahawks, Texans) that will fare worse.