Play-In Preview: Former Nets Out For Revenge Plus Another 3 Things That Should Keep Nash Up All Night
Well, this regular season from hell, relative to the preseason expectations, finally concluded when the Nets outlasted the depleted Pacers, 134-126, at Barclays Center on Sunday afternoon to clinch seventh place in the Eastern Conference and the right to host Cleveland in Tuesday’s play-in round. The Nets and the Cavs finished with identical 44-38 records but Brooklyn’s 118-107 head-to-head victory on Friday gave them the tiebreaker.
That Brooklyn required Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to each log 40 minutes on Sunday to beat a team that came in on a nine-game losing streak doesn’t exactly bode well for them going forward. The same issues that have troubled the Nets all regular season—turnovers, defensive breakdowns, and second-chance points allowed—reared their ugly head as the Pacers clawed back from an 18-point hole to stay within striking distance until the final minute. If Pacers guard T.J. McConnell didn’t miss a pair of three-pointers in crunch time with the Nets so far out of his zip code that you’d have thought he was infected with COVID-19, the subject of this post might have been quite different.
In any event, it’s on to another go-round with the Cavs. They may be young, but they won’t come to Brooklyn scared. In addition, the rematch will likely see an interesting plot twist in that Cleveland center Jarrett Allen, who was traded by Brooklyn last season in the James Harden blockbuster, is working toward returning to action following a finger fracture that cost him the last 18 games. Guard Caris LeVert, another former Net dealt in that trade (first to Indiana), will also be looking for a bit of revenge.
If you’re Brooklyn Head Coach Steve Nash, here are the three things that will keep you up over the next two nights in addition to the impact Allen can provide with his rim protection and lob threats:
1) What happens if the offensive rebounds dry up?
Ironically, it was Brooklyn who beat up Cleveland on the offensive glass on Friday, rebounding nearly 43% of their missed shots and scoring 25 second-chance points. The Nets’ half-court offense has been overly reliant on their two stars making spectacular plays, though the fact that the team has averaged 120 points per 100 possessions during their season-closing four-game winning streak, the ninth-best rate in the league, per NBA.com, suggests that they’re quite capable of pulling it off in any given game. On Friday, though, they combined to go a below-average 18-for-42 from the field, so those extra opportunities came in handy. Expect Cleveland to use more zone looks, especially when (if) Twin Towers Allen and rookie Evan Mobley share the floor. It won’t be easy getting off shots in the paint, but the good news is that Allen’s freelancing, whether it’s switching out high or hunting for blocks in help defense, always seem to leave his teams susceptible to offensive rebounds. There’s no excuse for the Cavs to have posted a sub-70% defensive rebounding percentage with both Allen and Mobley on the court. While Nets center Andre Drummond (5 offensive rebounds on Friday) can always be counted on to be a factor on the boards, will the undersized Bruce Brown (4) be as effective amidst the trees?
2) Darius Garland going off
Nets fans might still have nightmares from the Collin Sexton game, where the Cleveland guard who was lost to a season-ending injury in November went nuts in a double-overtime Cavs victory over Brooklyn last season. Garland, 22, has that in him as well. He scores at all three levels, testing Brooklyn’s substandard pick-and-roll defense whether they switch or play drop coverage. When I saw the scoresheet said that Garland dropped 31 points on Brooklyn on Friday, my first reaction was, “Was that all?” Brown, the Nets best perimeter defender, has had all kinds of trouble staying with Garland in the three meetings this season—Garland shot 12-for-19 (63%), making all three of his three-point attempts, with Brown as the closest defender, according to NBA.com’s tracking. And you know how Brown has been expert at getting to shooter’s sides to block shots? He hasn’t gotten Garland once. This isn’t the Knicks or the Pacers, so Nash would be taking a big risk if he goes to his small-ball, switch-everything lineup with KD at the 5 to manage Garland’s penetrations. The Nets on-ball defenders will have to be better at navigating the initial screens so that neither Garland nor the roll man ends up with a plethora of easy looks. Contrary to popular opinion, though, the Nets have managed to play excellent straight-up defense in several high-profile games this season. Consistency? Yeah, let’s not go there. The question then is: Can this team, especially Irving, get to that high-energy and physical level for this one matchup?
3) Did the season-closing run drain them?
While Nash has had no choice but to ride his two stars hard all the way to Sunday’s final buzzer, the Cavs will come into Brooklyn the fresher team—they barely broke a sweat in their finale against coalescing Milwaukee. Down the stretch, the Nets were missing Joe Harris (out since November with an ankle injury), Ben Simmons (herniated disc in his back after coming over in the February 10 trade of Harden to Philadelphia), Goran Dragic (in COVID-19 health and safety protocols since April 2), and, for certain games where he couldn’t get loose, Seth Curry (ankle). Getting Curry and his floor spacing back for Tuesday would be a huge spark, but he’d still be playing through the injury. Look, no one’s feeling sorry for all of Brooklyn’s woes—especially not the Cavs, who not only have lost Sexton and Allen for extended periods, but also Ricky Rubio went down for the season and then was subsequently traded to Indiana for LeVert. Still, the Nets are older and have tended to be overly fragile. They just played five games in the last nine days where KD and Kyrie each AVERAGED 41 minutes per game. On Tuesday, they will surely be asked to go long again after just one day off for rest between games. Everyone knows that if either star isn’t 100%, whether it’s due to injury or fatigue, the Nets’ odds of winning a particular game would plummet. Nash has to hope that Tuesday won’t be the night when the tank gets to empty.
My crystal ball, though, says the Nets will advance…
Prediction: Nets 118, Cavs 113