Offseason Will be Huge In Setting Stage For Devils’ Next Step After A Wonderful 2022-23 Run
The overriding lesson from the Devils’ previous trip to the Stanley Cup Playoffs back in 2018 was that tomorrow is guaranteed for no one. Things happen in pro sports. What then appeared to be a sustainable stepping stone towards a brighter and more competitive future unraveled before the end of that calendar year.
Now, comparisons between that group and the 2022-23 Devils, who were eliminated in Game 5 of the second round by Carolina with a heartbreaking 3-2 loss in overtime on Thursday night, aren’t apples-to-apples. Far from being a one-man show like Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall was, the current crop is vastly more talented with a more youthful core. The one-two center punch of Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier will only get better with more experiences like this wonderful run.
As was the case five years ago after that five-game loss to Tampa Bay, the Devils should feel no shame in being outclassed by the more experienced Hurricanes, not after rising from great depths to set franchise marks for wins and points in in one season. Beating the despised Rangers in a Game 7 in the first round was glorious. Sure, the final scores in their first three losses in this series may scream embarrassment to some, but in the end, this team went as far as it could go.
Still, it was crystal clear why Carolina, the NHL’s second-best team during the regular season, was better, which means that New Jersey has work to do to progress to that level. However, there are legitimate concerns about how this program will proceed going forward. A perfect storm brewed for the Devils to set an NHL record for an 82-game schedule with the biggest season-to-season point increase. Relatively good health is always a huge key to success, but equally important was General manager Tom Fitzgerald finding the right mix of young players and veterans to fill out roles.
That mix might be hard to maintain for another go-round. Of the top 25 players for this series (not counting “The Black Aces” recalled earlier in the week from Utica), only 12 are under contract for next season. Eight players will at least be restricted free agents, which gives the team some control, while another five are pending unrestricted FAs.
So, while CapFriendly.com’s projected $34.2 million in salary cap room for this offseason seems substantial, it will be eaten up quickly. Wings Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier could conceivably consume half of it, whether both RFAs agree to long-term deals or do one-year bridges. The Devils always knew they would have to tender Meier a $10 million qualifying offer to maintain his restricted rights once they acquired him at the trade deadline. Bratt and his agent, meanwhile, have made every contract negotiation a massive headache. That the duo combined to produce a disappointing three goals this postseason won’t affect their asks, I guarantee you.
On the UFA side, we’ll have to see what the market will be for valuable though not irreplaceable supporting pieces Tomas Tatar, Erik Haula, and Mile Wood. What happens with Haula will be most intriguing after he turned up his game late in the season and into the Rangers series. At 32, will he be looking to maximize every dollar, as is his right, or will the fact that he’s been on seven teams in the last seven years inform his decision? I mean, there are worse places to be next season than riding shotgun with Hughes.
The defense corps might be more in flux, with two of the top five in Ryan Graves and Damon Severson likely to test the free agent waters this summer. As a right-handed puck mover and one of the game’s best stretch passers, Severson could easily command at least a 50% pay raise over his current $4.166 AAV while Graves too will garner a sizable contract this summer. Given the team’s cap crunch, it would be more prudent for New Jersey to transition to younger and less costly options, with consecutive first round picks Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec plus 22-year old Kevin Bahl stepping up to eat major minutes, even if it results in some acute growing pains next season.
And, as it always seems to be with this franchise since Martin Brodeur retired a decade ago, goaltending will be a hot topic in organizational meetings leading up to the offseason. Vitek Vanecek certainly delivered during the regular season, winning 33 games while placing 15th among the 45 goalies who played at least 1500 minutes in NaturalStatTrick.com’s goals saved above average metric. The Devils went into the season saying they were looking for average goaltending to unlock their potential—that they got a little better than that between Vanecek and backups Mackenzie Blackwood and rookie Akira Schmid was a huge reason why they finished with the third-most points in the league.
The playoffs, though, require a higher level of netminding. Schmid literally saved the Devils’ season when he came on to start Game 3 of the Rangers series. He won four of the next five games, two with shutouts, including a 4-0 masterpiece in game 7.
However, Schmid was buried in Carolina, yanked from the net after surrendering seven goals on 36 shots in nearly 62 minutes over the first two games before rebounding with a more competent outing in Thursday’s elimination loss.
It spoke volumes that Blackwood, finally healthy, didn’t dress once during the playoffs despite the team’s revolving door in net—Ruff replaced his goalie in four of the last seven games. A pending restricted free agent, does the former second-round pick have a future here? If not, where does Fitzgerald go to find a goalie who can withstand playoff pressure, since I’m skeptical of Schmid’s ceiling?
At least Fitzgerald doesn’t have to worry about undergoing a coaching search, which was what I thought was required a year ago. How things change. Instead, Ruff morphed from a coach at the front of the firing line after losing the first two games of the season into a Jack Adams finalist. His “hit rate” on decisions this season was phenomenal, whether it was determining the goalie, changing the lineup, or reconfiguring lines in game.
That Ruff couldn’t find answers to Carolina’s superiority was no more of an indictment of him than what had befallen his players. His three-year contract has expired, but the job will still be his if he wants it.
Who Fitzgerald will be able to bring back while simultaneously fixing the team’s flaws given the financial constraints will go a long way to determining whether this magical 2022-23 Devils season was for real or were they like their predecessors--one-hit wonders.