No Matter Where The Ball Lands On The QB Roulette Wheel, The Jets Are Screwed
At some point in the next few weeks, the available quarterback dominos will begin to fall. Multiple teams are allegedly in the market for an upgrade at professional sports’ most important position.
When it comes to the perpetually quarterback-needy Jets, however, who they end up with is not going to matter as much as fans hope.
The Jets play in a conference that boasts Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and up-and-comer Trevor Lawrence. Does anyone seriously think that Derek Carr, who stunk with the Raiders last season despite the presence of elite wide receiver Davante Adams, will elevate New York above those teams to lead the franchise to its first Super Bowl in 55 years?
If not, what are we doing here? Paying a guy who is at best a-mid-level QB exorbitant money for more also-ran finishes? Some reports indicate that Carr is looking for a multi-year deal with an AAV in the neighborhood of $35-$40 million. Pass.
I know, many Jets fans are salivating at the prospect of Aaron Rodgers ditching Green Bay for Gang Green green. From my perspective, I can’t imagine why he’d want to, the hiring of his “friend” Nathaniel Hackett to be the Jets’ offensive coordinator notwithstanding.
In any event, this, unfortunately, is not exactly a Brett Favre scenario. Back in 2008, when Favre, like Rodgers, was waffling about whether he wanted to continue to play while turning 39 that season, he and the Packers didn’t reach their ultimate decision until August, well after the Draft and free agency period had concluded. That eliminated most teams as serious bidders, allowing the Jets to swoop in and acquire the Hall of Famer for one conditional draft pick, which turned into a third-rounder because New York stumbled down the stretch that season after Favre suffered an arm injury and failed to qualify for the playoffs.
Rodgers, also 39, has said that he would like a more expedited process after spending some time in “darkness” to ponder his next step. The Jets, nor any winner in the Rodgers sweepstakes, won’t be able to get him that cheap.
At minimum, a trade for Rodgers will cost one first-round pick, which the Jets need to once again shore up their offensive line. His contract, though not that problematic for 2023 salary cap purposes, will eventually blow a giant hole in his new team’s cap, especially if he doesn’t give them more than one season.
Still, the Jets aren’t exactly flush with cap space this offseason. No matter how they address the QB position, they’re going to need to re-work some contracts to push money into future years and will likely have to bid adieu to some key members of their supporting cast, with their free agent linebackers and overpaid safeties most vulnerable.
That means Head Coach Robert Saleh misled the media in recent remarks. There’s no such thing as “running it back” in the NFL, even if it’s just on the defensive side of the ball. Besides, defense always comes with high variance from season-to-season—schedule difficulty has a large impact on outcomes-- so banking on the Jets D to replicate their outstanding stats from 2022 is unrealistic. If you were among those who thought that the Jets were just a good quarterback away from making some noise in this past season’s tournament, you may be right, but it was a one-time opportunity. Remember, five of their seven wins came against backup QBs.
Like any Jets fan who has suffered through mostly abhorrent QB play for decades, I would be thrilled to witness the wonderous moments Rodgers would provide. The arm talent and ability to create chunk plays out of nothing was still there last season. when he nearly led a shell of a Packers squad to the playoffs despite playing though a broken thumb on his throwing hand.
But that’s all they’d be—moments. Rodgers would be subject to the same jailbreaks the Jets woeful pass protection burdened all their recent QBs. Given the team’s financial situation and diminished draft capital, the only avenue to make improvements would be to gamble on discarded vets. Been there. Good luck competing for AFC supremacy with that.
Worse, such thrills would likely be short-lived. The Jets would have to prepare for the possibility that they’d be back in the same predicament a year from now.
That’s why I maintain that New York would be best served by shooting lower, grabbing someone like San Francisco’s injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo at a more reasonable cost, with minimal cap hits in future years. At worst, Garoppolo continues to have trouble staying on the field, the Jets bottom out, and then they clean house with a new (offensive-oriented) head coach and a reset of the QB rookie contract in 2024.
In case they haven’t learned from their past mistakes, for the Jets to compete in the stacked AFC, short-term fixes won’t cut it—and that’s all they have at their disposal this offseason.