NHL Playoff Probability Models Haven’t Seen The Devils' Slippage
Websites that compute probabilities have the Devils holding a nearly 98% chance of qualifying for the 2025 NHL playoffs.
The problem with relying on computer models is that they can’t watch the games.
For if they could, they would have to be a lot more hesitant about making such a claim with that level of certitude.
The Devils (38-29-7 and losers of four of their last five games after Friday night’s 4-0 no-show in Winnipeg) remain in third place in the Metropolitan Division, but the comfortability level is dwindling given the multiple games in hand held by their closest competitors. Columbus (8 points out with three games in hand), the Rangers (8 points out with one game in hand), and the Islanders (9 points out with three games in hand) are all within striking distance with three weeks to go. And if New Jersey happened to surrender third place, they’d have to include Atlantic Division foes like Ottawa and Montreal in their race to get in as a Wild Card.
The good news is that the teams chasing the Devils haven’t exactly gotten their own acts together as they head into the stretch run. Among the teams “in the hunt”, only Ottawa has won more than four times in their last ten games, so New Jersey could have easily lost more ground during this latest bout with mediocrity.
Of course, who wants to dismiss the possibility that one or more of these clubs will get hot in these remaining games and put the Devils in a stress test?
This wouldn’t be such a concern if New Jersey was skating in the right direction. MSG announcer Bill Spaulding spilled the beans during Friday’s broadcast when he said that the Devils, before injuries took out Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler for the season and scratched Luke Hughes on Friday, used to be able to escape with points when they weren’t on their “A” game. That’s rarely the case these days.
Mistakes were certainly going to prove to be costly against the NHL-leading Jets. The Devils gifted Winnipeg two goals in the first 1:52 and then patted themselves on the back when the Jets mostly went into a conservative shell to focus on defending goalie Connor Hellebuyck’s shutout, the eighth time this season New Jersey has been blanked. During his postgame press conference, Devils Head Coach Sheldon Keefe actually mentioned twice how impressed he was with the Nico Hischier line’s opening shift. Too bad there were 224 more.
Aside from having a goal wiped out by Erik Haula’s goalie interference and Timo Meier’s ping off the iron on a second period power play, the Devils were never really a threat to score, no matter what NaturalStatTrick.com labelled as “high danger chances.” Sure, the team defended much better after the opening debacle, holding the powerhouse Jets to under 20 shots on goal for the first time since January 10, but that’s like cheering how the stock market stabilized after it crashed 2% on the open. It’s still an awful day.
And the Devils can’t afford too many more days like that. Despite the computer models, I don’t believe they’re going to be able to back into the playoffs from this spot.
Instead, how about the Devils show up in Minnesota on Saturday’s back-to-back and win a hockey game against a solid opponent? Forget about who’s in or not in the night’s lineup. Win puck battles and get to the net front, like they did in Wednesday’s 5-3 victory at tanking Chicago. And for heaven’s sake, can the goalie make a big save with the game on the line?
Do that a few more times and the model can adjust the playoff probability to 100%.