Nets Playoff Preview: Why 2/7 Is A 50/50 Series
The Celtics took three of their four regular season games against the Nets, but you could argue that only the last one, a 126-120 Celtics home victory that went down to the final minute, contained lineups that had any resemblance to what we will see when the two clubs square off in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals starting on Sunday in Boston.
The other three contests were all one-sided, with a very different Brooklyn squad taking an early-season affair and then Boston shellacking a star-less Nets facsimile in the next two meetings at Barclays Center. And as for the Nets’ five-game destruction of Boston in last postseason’s first round, six of the ten starters in that series are either gone, injured, or, in Blake Griffin’s case, buried deep on Brooklyn’s bench.
To me, this really is a pick-em series, despite the nominal 2 vs. 7 seed disparity and ESPN’s odd odds. Each team leans on their two All-Stars—Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving for Brooklyn, and Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on Boston—each of whom has the ability to wreck any game. Obviously, the Nets’ experienced duo has a far lengthier resume over their youthful Boston counterparts, but whereas the Nets have had to push Durant and Irving to their physical limits to get out from under the single-elimination 9/10 slots and then had them each log 42 minutes during Tuesday’s play-in victory over Cleveland, the Celtics have been able to manage their stars’ loads in April.
Fortunately for Brooklyn, though fatigue may come into play in an extended series, they have four full days off prior to Game 1. Other X factors, such as the meniscus tear to Celtics center Robert Williams III, a terror in rim protection, and the looming return of Brooklyn’s Ben Simmons from a herniated disc in his back also seem to favor the Nets. However, the Celtics have huge advantages in continuity, especially on the defensive end where they led the league in defensive rating.
It's a superstar league, so the series might just come down to which club’s leading men is able to register the most production. But what happens if the stars kind of even themselves out? Here, then, are three areas which could decide which team advances to a probable matchup with defending champion Milwaukee in Round 2:
1) Brooklyn turnovers
One of the downsides of late-season team makeovers is having to build chemistry from scratch with little time for reps. The Nets, who integrated several new pieces into the rotation since the February 10 blockbuster trade of James Harden to Philadelphia, got really sloppy down the stretch, averaging the fourth-most turnovers per game (15.3) in the league over their last 10 games and then chipped in another 14 on Tuesday. The teams below them in the turnover rankings—Portland, Houston, and Oklahoma City—were all playing out the string and went a combined 6-24. The turnover bug proved pivotal in the final Boston affair, with KD committing two of his seven miscues in the final three minutes.
Obviously, not all turnovers are created equal, with live-ball turnovers being extra painful, as they ignite the opponent’s transition game. Interestingly, the winner in the steals category won three of the four meetings, with the lone exception a 6-6 tie in the game in Brooklyn during which Boston jumped out to a 28-2 lead and coasted from there.
If Brooklyn continues to play loose with the ball, it wouldn’t be surprising if the steals stat proves telling in this series.
2) Bruce Brown’s decision-making
I was pleased to hear TNT analyst Stan Van Gundy concur with my conclusion last week (Who Needs A Big 3? Brown Growing In Role As Nets’ Third Fiddle (substack.com)) that Brown is now the Nets’ third-most important player. His evolution into a 40% three-point shooter from the corners has rounded out his game.
Of course, Brown does most of his damage in the screen-and-roll game—as the 6-foot 4 roller. Good defensive teams like Boston and Milwaukee understand how to neutralize Brown’s effectiveness in the paint, forcing him to make ever-more difficult floaters. Per NBA.com, he went 2-for-7 on shots from the 5-9 foot range in his three games against the Celtics.
With Nash trusting Brown as the primary outlet off screens/double teams of KD or Kyrie, it’s imperative that he make proper decisions off the catches. It’s been hit-or-miss, honestly. Look at Tuesday night: Though he tied his season-high with eight assists, there’s no way he should be attempting 19 shots, more than both Durant and Irving, in any game again.
If that happens, Nets Head Coach Steve Nash has to pull him, whether Simmons is ready to go or not. That would leave the Nets short of their best perimeter defender and energizer bunny, making it that much tougher for this team to hang with the more athletic Celtics.
3) Defending the three-point line
Looking at the year-end stats, you see Boston with the league-best 33.9% opponent three-point shooting percentage and think, “That makes sense.” Then you see that Brooklyn, with all their defensive issues, placed a very respectable eighth at 34.5% and do a double-take, thinking, “Boy, they were really lucky.”
Thanks to breakdowns galore, the Nets gave up the 36.3 3s per game this season, the NBA’s ninth-most, 32.4 of which were deemed by NBA.com’s tracking as “open” or “wide open,” defined as a shot where the nearest defender was no closer than four feet away. In a make-or-miss league, the Nets’ opponents shot 32.5% from deep during their wins and nearly 37% during losses.
Despite boasting a greater quantity of supposed floor spacers, the Celtics only converted 36.2% on their open looks, 1.4% lower than Brooklyn’s rate. They’re capable—Tatum and Brown each shot about 4% better on those same opportunities last season—so the Nets would be playing with fire if they start to get lax defending the three-point line. Even Marcus Smart, who posted an awful 32.9% three-point conversion rate this season, is known to go on burners.
That means that even if the Nets stick with a drop coverage base on pick-and-rolls (the only way starting center Andre Drummond can be effective enough to stay on the floor), it will be imperative that the perimeter defender not die on the screens so he can contest the ballhandler on the shooting shoulder as he comes around.
On the Nets’ side, they need to get the hobbled Seth Curry (ankle) going so Patty Mills isn’t overly stressed. It would be nice if Goran Dragic can come in off the bench and hit some 3s as well. However, Nash will still be stuck with lineups where spacing will be a problem, especially if Brown regresses to his mean.
It just means that Brooklyn has its work cut out for them—for as many as seven games.
Prediction: Celtics in 7
Again, this is a 50/50 bet no matter how you slice it. It’s not just having the seventh game in Boston that swings it for me—there was just too many things that have gone sideways for Brooklyn this season to make me believe they can get through this round. Hopefully, it’s not injuries like how the last playoff run ended. More likely, it will be something like KD just running out of gas from the weight he has carried all season.