Nets On Concerning Trajectory To Be Deficient In Key Offensive Staple

While on a family vacation in Spain last week, I popped into a Barcelona casino. On a lark, I checked its sports book and, lo and behold, it had NBA Summer League action. I couldn’t resist, putting some Euros down on Brooklyn for Sunday’s semifinal versus Cleveland.

Pointless though it may have been, those never-quit Nets will always have a small place in my heart for coming back twice to cover the 3.5-point spread in their overtime loss.

For me as a Nets fan looking at a bigger picture, there were some other fascinating developments in the otherwise meaningless affair. For instance, ordinarily, you’d figure that David Duke Jr., a three-year veteran of these Las Vegas proceedings for Brooklyn and a presumed candidate for a regular or two-way roster slot, would be instrumental in such a situation. Except Duke just hasn’t developed a reliable enough three-point stroke, so he was yanked during the fourth quarter and all the way through the overtime. Someone named Matt Lewis came off the bench to knock down 3-of-4 three pointers, two of them in clutch situations. No matter how you feel about the validity of Summer League results, Sunday’s transpirings couldn’t have been good for Duke’s prospects in Brooklyn.

Instead, welcome to Brooklyn, Armoni Brooks, the 25.-year old guard with 74 NBA games already under his belt and piqued Nets General Manager Sean Marks’ interest enough with his ability to drain deep and contested 3s to snatch a two-way contract on Tuesday. Brooks hit on 20-of-42 three-pointers during the tournament and was perhaps the second-best player on the team behind second-round pick Jalen Wilson, who had previously signed a two-way deal. (Note: After waiving big man Raiquan Gray on Tuesday following an underwhelming week in Las Vegas, Marks still has one two-way contract in his pocket which he historically holds until the end of training camp)

Brooks’ performance came at the right time, because three-point shooters are suddenly in short supply in Brooklyn.

Yes, it’s early to sound the alarm, but the Nets appear to be on a trajectory to post their worst three-point shooting team since the first two Kenny Atkinson seasons. I would expect Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to continue to be threats from deep, but who else scares defenses? In the last 27 games of the season following the Kevin Durant trade to Phoenix, Brooklyn ranked 20th in three-point percentage, with Royce O’Neale and Cam Thomas the only other remaining Nets to shoot 3s above the league average. It got worse in the playoffs, with the Nets posting a 34.5% conversion rate, placing them 13th among the 16 teams.

And that was with expensive marksmen Joe Harris, Seth Curry and Patty Mills, all of whom were excised from Brooklyn’s payroll this month, on the roster. If you’re looking for the three newcomers signed to veteran minimum deals to provide a boost, understand that none of them have shown any consistency in that department. Lonnie Walker managed to eclipse the league average mark—by a whopping .004 percentage points—last season, though it came after a year of bricklaying with the 2021-22 Spurs. Darius Bazley has some potential as an undersized stretch five, but his record to date has shown diminishing returns when he ups his three-point volume. And those in the area know about Dennis Smith Jr’s ugly stroke—he went 40-for-137 (29%) in 55 games as a Knick a few years back. For those excited by his growth in Charlotte last season, his three-point percentage actually regressed to a ghastly 21.6% on 111 attempts. 

Considering the Nets already figure to employ a non-shooter at center plus another one in Ben Simmons (assuming he completes his comeback from back woes) for lengthy stretches, it’s incumbent on them to space the other members of their lineup. They no longer have KD or Kyrie Irving to bail them out of possessions bogged down by clogged paints.

Maybe Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, both capable long-range shooters in Dallas before scuffling in Brooklyn following the Irving trade, can return to form, but let’s not understate the differences in shot quality when they had Luka Doncic facilitating things versus how Brooklyn struggled to create offense with dribble penetration.

It’s a Catch-22. The Nets need to attack the paint more effectively to create good three-point looks off drive-and-kicks, but they also need more three-point weapons so opposing defenders have to stay attached to them instead of being able to cheat as helpers in the paint.

We know the roster configuration won’t matter because of the Nets’ history of strict adherence to the analytics of the three-point shot, with a brief pause to bow to mid-range brilliance during the superstar era. Head Coach Jacque Vaughn, a devout Marks disciple, often talks about three-point shot quantity as a marker, which has been frustrating on the many nights when they haven’t gone down. 

That’s why anyone in a Nets uniform who shows an aptitude for long-range shotmaking, even in a meaningless Summer League, will probably get a look sometime over the course of the coming season.

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A few words on why I am hoping that this whole Damian Lillard saga passes by Brooklyn:

I don’t believe it was a coincidence that Lillard, who previously hinted that Brooklyn was an agreeable destination, sent out his “Miami or bust” vibes shortly after ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski dropped the Nets as a potential trade partner in a report. Woj is close to Marks. It’s possible that Marks leaked that Brooklyn was out on Lillard; hence, the high school-ish Lillard retort, “No, I dumped YOU!”

Nor should extracting Miami gunner Tyler Herro as a three-way conduit in the transaction seem palatable to Marks. How would that work exactly? Herro has a $27 million salary cap hit this season (not to mention $93 million due in the following three years). How are the Nets matching salaries, since I can’t imagine Portland (or anyone at this point) wanting Simmons, at least until he puts something good on tape?

As much as Herro Ball is revered by some, he’s not making the Nets a contender. Heck, if Brooklyn gives Walker around the 17 shots per game the forever-in-Heat-check guard has hoisted over the last two seasons for Miami, he too might average 20 points, albeit less efficiently. Aside from moving Simmons and his anvil contract, there’s no way I see this as an appropriate move for the Nets.

Besides, the whole point of this offseason’s exercise was to get the Nets under the luxury tax threshold so they can start the process to get off the dreaded repeater tax penalties. The team is currently estimated to be a little under $10 million below the tax line with a 14-player roster (two-way amounts do not count). The Nets do have exceptions available, both mid-level and multiple trade exceptions, but again, utilizing them would defeat the purpose. It’s sound practice to avoid paying taxes to fund a mediocre basketball club, no matter how often the Knicks do it.

Now, if this Nets team mightily overachieves in the first half of the season, MAYBE those exceptions could come into play. But that’s a fantastical “if.”