Mid-Term Grades Show Areas Where Streaking Jets Can Fly Even Higher After Bye
The Jets are flying high into their bye week following Sunday’s 20-17 upset of AFC East leading Buffalo. At 6-3, Gang Green is sitting in the conference’s No. 5 seed, which, if the season ended today, would put them in the playoffs for the first time in 12 years.
No one thought this was possible. Certainly not Las Vegas, which placed the Jets’ over/under win total line at 5.5 wins and then made New York underdogs in all nine contests. Even more ironic is that the season’s first half was thought to be most brutal while the conventional wisdom considered the Jets’ opponents after the bye to be less challenging.
As is often the case, everyone (including me) was wrong. Road games at Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Denver and Green Bay weren’t so frightful, but that Week 17 trip to Seattle? Despite quarterback Russell Wilson’s departure, that’s not going to be as winnable a game as we all thought when it was scheduled.
And that’s after the Jets open the second half with three difficult road games in the four weeks after the bye—at New England, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Even the sole home game in that stretch versus Chicago probably won’t be a cakewalk given what quarterback Justin Fields has been doing lately.
As such, the Jets are going to need each position group to improve upon their first-half grades:
Quarterbacks:
Backup Joe Flacco won a game for the ages in engineering a miracle comeback victory from two touchdowns down in the last two minutes in Week 2 at Cleveland while starter Zach Wilson was on the mend from a knee injury. Flacco also struggled in two noncompetitive losses and is now QB3 behind Mike White. This grade, though, is mostly about Wilson, who is 5-1 as a starter acting more like a game manager, throwing for over the low bar of 200 yards during just three of those outings. It has worked incredibly well when the Jets have run the ball successfully. When they didn’t against New England in Week 8, it got ugly. Wilson still stinks under pressure (11-for-52, the lowest completion percentage of any QB with at least 100 dropbacks, per ProFootballFocus.com) and he’s been the rare quarterback who gets significantly worse the longer he holds the ball. At some point, the Jets are going to need Wilson to find the next level. It’s what should be expected out of a No. 2 overall pick, even in Year 2.
Grade: C
Running backs:
The season-ending injury to rookie Breece Hall was such a shame as he was just starting to fulfill his destiny as a game-changing back who can take any touch to the house. Michael Carter is just not in that class—his special skill is getting extra yards when you think he’s been corralled. The same goes for newly-acquired James Robinson, for whom an exceptional gain is 8-10 yards. The running game is so crucial to the Jets’ offense; unfortunately, without Hall, this is one grade that will be tough to top.
Grade: B
Wide receivers:
Blame Wilson, blame Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur, blame the ghost of Don Maynard—this position group should be better. Rookie Garrett Wilson stepped up in the absence of Corey Davis with two big games, but that was after a four-game stretch where he totaled a mere 100 yards receiving. Denzel Mims came out of LaFleur’s doghouse in time for Elijah Moore to step into it with an absurd trade request. Moore has been targeted once with zero receptions in the last four weeks, which included a healthy scratch in Denver, despite getting more snaps from his preferred slot position. Braxton Berrios has been good for an explosive jet sweep every so often, though his longest catch went for just 13 yards.
Grade: B-minus
Tight ends:
After exhibiting fabulous hands in the preseason, Tyler Conklin must have greased his gloves when the games started to count. He was dinged with three drops and two fumbles in the first four weeks. Fortunately, he’s played clean since, though he hasn’t developed the connection with Wilson to have as much of an impact as I thought he would. C.J. Uzomah, who signed with Conklin in free agency last offseason, has had even less, with just 10 receptions in nine games, though his run blocking has been improving. If the Jets can figure out how to get their tight ends going in the pass attack, it can give the offense the boost it sorely needs.
Grade: C-minus
Offensive line:
Held together by duct tape on the edges, it could have been worse. The Jets are ranked 20th in the league in offensive line pass blocking efficiency this season as measured by PFF. And that’s with their two first-round picks Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker lost for the season with injuries and then other maladies forcing Duane Brown, George Fant, and rookie Max Michell to miss significant time. Nate Herbig has fared well filling in at guard while Cedric Ogbuehi hasn’t caused too much trouble as the emergency right tackle other than allowing Von Miller to strip-sack Wilson last week—the Bills star has done that to a lot of NFL starters too. The good news is that Fant and Mitchell could be back on the field shortly after the bye and expensive free agent guard Laken Tomlinson is capable of playing a whole lot better.
Grade: C-minus
Defensive line:
The cream of the crop. So deep that Head Coach Robert Saleh has no qualms about dressing ten of them for a game. Even the run defense that entered the season as a question mark has been stout after getting gashed by Cleveland--the Jets are still ranked fourth in the NFL in yards allowed per carry this season. Quinnen Williams is putting together an All-Pro resume in the interior and the pass rush variety has been impressive, especially in fourth quarters. Edge rusher Bryce Huff apparently has the fastest “get-off time” in the league, enabling him to sport the NFL’s eighth-highest pressure rate among edge rushers with at least 90 pass rush snaps, per PFF. It was Huff’s burst that caused quarterback Josh Allen to fumble for a 19-yard loss that doomed Buffalo’s final possession last week (and might keep Allen out this Sunday with an elbow injury). Never did I think this unit could be so dominant.
Grade: A
Linebackers:
They sure do hit hard, though I wish C.J. Mosley would get his tackles closer to the line of scrimmage. His 5.8% run stop percentage places him 35th among the 50 LBs with at least 150 run defense snaps, per PFF (Quincy Williams’ 10.8% ranks first). Kwon Alexander was a hugely underrated Joe Douglas signing. Depth is an issue, as is the underneath pass coverage and tackling thereafter, but overall, this group hasn’t been the liability I thought it might be.
Grade: B
Secondary:
What a difference a year makes. With four new starters (only slot corner Michael Carter II returned), the Jets’ secondary went from a mess to becoming a tight-covering, ball-hawking crew. Rookie Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner has garnered much of the attention, but let’s not understate the impact of free agent acquisition D.J. Reed. Gardner, though, is the real deal, so good that he has been getting away with being a little handsy (flagged just twice all season). Safeties Jordan Whitehead and Lamarcus Joyner have been less consistent, but if you told me before the season that they’d combine for five interceptions and 11 pass breakups in half a season, I’d sign up for that in a heartbeat. In 2021, Jets safeties contributed 3 interceptions and 11 passes defended for the entire season. It’s the chicken-or-the-egg debate: Has the Jets pass rush efficiency made the secondary look good, or has the secondary’s coverage enabled the pass rush to get home more often? Or does anyone care?
Grade: A-minus
Special Teams:
No matter what service you use—PFF, Football Outsiders, etc.—New York’s special teams have been, well, special, a top ten unit. Greg Zuerlein has the chance to become the first Jets kicker to beat the league average in field goal conversion rate since Jason Myers in 2018. Braden Mann has the Jets in the upper half of net punting yards, plus he’s been involved in a couple of successful trick plays. The coverage teams have been pretty good though Berrios has yet to really break any of his returns like he did during last year’s Pro Bowl campaign Still, Coordinator Brant Boyer continues to show why he was the one coach Saleh retained when he took over before last season.
Grade: A-minus
Coaching:
Speaking of Saleh, he certainly deserves credit for changing the narrative around the metropolitan area. He still can’t cash in any of those “receipts” he’s been taking, but I think he understands that. With the help of situational football/game management coordinator Dan Shamash, Saleh is even getting better at his fourth-down decision-making. The sole issue remains his commitment to a game plan that has a very low ceiling. His staff hasn’t developed Wilson to the point where he can be trusted to win games, not just manage them, and that will continue to hinder the Jets’ ability to transition into a legitimate contender. The Jets had a good chunk of good fortune in the season’s first half; we’ll see how Saleh adapts when this team finally plays games that matter down the stretch of the regular season—and maybe beyond.
Grade: B-plus