Jets Wilson Can Help His Abysmal Passing Numbers Under Pressure By Running More
Not every NFL team that boasts a dual-threat quarterback is a winner (think Chicago and Justin Fields) and going with a pure pocket passer doesn’t doom a franchise to also-ran status (see Minnesota and Kirk Cousins).
However, if you look at the league’s top ten list of rushing yards from QBs, only three play on teams that sport losing records as we near the halfway point of the season, with the ten posting an aggregate mark of 46-32 (59%). Three of the NFL’s top five teams boast QBs who are rank third, fifth, and sixth in rushing yards at the position.
In fifth place is Josh Allen, whose Bills will invade MetLife Stadium on Sunday to face a Jets squad hurting from injuries to key offensive players and a mostly self-inflicted loss to hated New England in a huge game last week. Allen is well known for being able to do damage not just with his strong arm but also with his legs, be it on designed runs or his 26 scrambles that have gained 245 yards this season, according to ProFootballFocus.com.
Meanwhile, Jets quarterback Zach Wilson has been averaging just nine yards rushing per game (since he missed the first three games this season with a knee injury it’s pointless to use totals for comparison purposes), scrambling seven times for 50 yards in five games.
Think about all the yards Wilson has run backwards and sideways behind the line of scrimmage as he attempted to escape pressure this season before throwing balls away (and praying they aren’t intercepted—two of his three picks against the Patriots were thrown from well outside the pocket). He’s now a league-worst 9-for-47 (19.1%, 50 dropback minimum) when harassed this season, per PFF. Wouldn’t it have been great if some of those strides went forward instead? When you look at the 11-on-11 video of a good number of those snaps, particularly on third-down dropbacks against man-to-man coverages, the field was open enough where taking off seemed like the better option to get the first down than a hoper pass.
For those who have watched Wilson this season and believe he has regressed in Year 2 in his ability to get balls out quick, he has, according to Sharp Stats, which shows 41 dropbacks, about a quarter of them, where Wilson took over 3.5 seconds to release the ball. Oh, and he’s completed just four of those throws, giving him the worst expected points added per attempt of any QB this century. There has to be a better way.
It's not like Wilson can’t run. He’s not immobile like backup Joe Flacco. Wilson accumulated 254 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground in his final season at Brigham Young (remember: unlike the NFL, college stats count yards lost from Wilson’s 10 sacks taken that season against his rushing total).
What’s stopping Wilson is most likely fear. Not necessarily his fear, but those of his coaches. At 6-foot 2 and 214 pounds, he is three inches shorter and 23 pounds lighter than Allen, a player many Jets fans compare Wilson to given their similar struggles in their first two pro seasons. Unfortunately, their different builds give Allen a tremendous advantage when it comes to probable consequences from taking on tacklers. Whereas Allen hasn’t missed a game during the last four seasons, Wilson, in addition to the aforementioned three games this season from a non-contact injury while scrambling in the preseason opener, was out for four games during his rookie season with a PCL injury from a late hit in the pocket. The last thing Jets Head Coach Robert Saleh wants is to risk putting him in harm’s way again, right?
Wrong. In order for Wilson to be the best he can be, he has to use all the tools in his belt. That includes sometimes leveraging his athleticism by running. You don’t think he can be injured during one of these hectic plays with half the defense chasing him behind the line of scrimmage? The easiest preventative measure when it comes to Wilson potentially taking hits downfield is to teach him when and how to properly slide. And for heaven’s sake, reinforce to him that there’s no need to scramble in a preseason game.
Many writers have been posting some interesting stuff about how the Jets can help Wilson turn around his so-far underwhelming career. More ground-and-pound, more play-action, more quick-hitting routes for receivers, better pass protection, etc. Those are all great, but what happens in the heat of a play when Wilson doesn’t see an open receiver and he can feel the pass rush getting close? His current instinct is to hold onto the ball while running around in the backfield to buy an extra second or two in the faint hope he can complete a pass.
These are disasters waiting to happen. He’s been very lucky he hasn’t been sacked, fumbled, or been intercepted more often. The funny thing is that when Wilson gets balls out in less than three seconds, he’s actually been pretty good, ranking above average in EPA and completion percentage, per Sharp. If he simply can’t learn to throw the ball away from the spot of his planted foot, my suggestion for a better option is: Run, Wilson, run!
Prediction: Bills 33 Jets 13