Jets Likely To Rue Caving To Packers’ Demands In Rodgers Trade
As I expected, the Jets panicked.
There may have been joy in Florham Park after word came down on Monday that the team, which has been lacking a franchise quarterback for generations, reportedly agreed on the framework of a trade for Green Bay signal caller Aaron Rodgers, a sure-fire future Hall of Famer. However, like so many of their desperate maneuvers over the years, there’s a more than good chance that such elation will be short-lived.
I too am excited in the moment after being force fed a neverending string of ineptitude at the sport’s most important position. Rodgers will bring a flair to MetLife Stadium unlike any other option the Jets could have pursued this offseason. But for how long and at what cost? Those details rarely factor into Gang Green’s decisions, which is one of the reasons why they haven’t reached the postseason since 2010, owning the NFL’s longest drought.
As first reported by ESPN, the Jets will receive Rodgers and a fifth-round pick in this week’s NFL Draft in exchange for a swap of Thursday’s first-round Draft slots (No. 13 for No. 15), their second-round pick (No, 42) on Friday, a sixth-round pick on Saturday, plus a conditional 2024 pick. There has been no word as of this writing about who will be on the hook for Rodgers’ massive salary/bonuses due this season.
From my perspective, the first three return pieces were reasonable for New York. Though he will turn 40 in December and is coming off a down year--posting his lowest quarterback rating and expected points added per play in his 15 years as Green Bay’s starter--dropping down two slots in the first plus a 2 is a fair price for a guy who can still make “wow” throws. I’d also toss in the additional conditional pick—even a 1 or a 2 per the agreement--under the right conditions.
But did the Jets agree to make such condition based on team performance or longevity, since Rodgers admitted he was “90% retired” when he announced on the Pat McAfee Show that he intended to play this season in New York? Of course not. The condition is a mere 65% of 2023 snaps, which means that if Rodgers gives the Jets only one year, they’re screwed, because they’ll be back where they were last week—and have been for more than half a century--in dire need of a QB, only without their first-round pick.
It hurts to laugh at all the folks who counter with, “If the Jets make it to the Super Bowl, it’s worth it.” Well duh, if you could guarantee me a Super Bowl berth, I’d euphorically donate all of the Jets’ first round picks for the rest of the decade. But let’s not make such a fantastical assumption that adding Rodgers singlehandedly makes the Jets a title contender.
Obviously, the Jets should be vastly improved over last season’s 7-10 campaign now that Rodgers will be under center rather than the inept triumvirate of Zach Wilson, Mike White, and Joe Flacco. Rodgers’ 2023 salary cap hit will likely be massaged, according to multiple reports, to enable the Jets to further bolster their roster. But will they really now be better than the Chiefs, Bills, or Bengals, to name three legitimate threats in the AFC?
That’s highly doubtful. I have to keep reminding you that of New York’s seven wins last season, five came against backup quarterbacks. Gang Green’s 2023 schedule includes a terrifying slate of opposing QBs. As such, the Jets’ defense, so vaunted yet at the same time so overrated last season, will logically suffer from the same variance that afflicts every other team when they face an uptick in competition.
My former colleague Mike Mazzeo, now a gambling expert for Legal Sports Report, reported that the Jets are plus-1400 to win the Super Bowl. How can I bet against them?
SNY’s Connor Hughes somehow thinks that the Jets and Rodgers have “an understanding” that he will give them more than one year. As if anyone can judge what Rodgers’ mindset will be by his past behaviors, that he is going to be bound by that. It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if he followed the path of Brett Favre, his predecessor in Green Bay who also finagled his way to New York in August 2008 only to be gone after one season. Favre, by the way, only cost the Jets one conditional pick, which ended up being a third rounder.
The bottom line is that the Jets didn’t need to rush the Rodgers trade through. Green Bay was on the verge of losing the opportunity to make their own 2023 picks with those acquired once this coming weekend passed. The Packers actually would have benefitted in terms of being able to spread out dead money salary cap hits over two seasons if the trade was completed after June 1 (it still might not become official for bookkeeping purposes until after then anyway). After that, though, the Packers would have been the team under pressure from the potential of having to pay Rodgers close to $60 million not to play for them.
Only the Jets bailed them out. It doesn’t matter if it came down from above (Owner Woody Johnson) or that General Manager Joe Douglas once again jumped the gun for a player he craved, like he does with draft picks, because he needs to show results this season in order to keep his job beyond it. Their offer was unnecessarily gracious for such a low-odds roll of the dice.