Jets Have No Choice But To Blow Up QB Room This Offseason And Start Over—With Veteran And Rookie

The Jets, as is their tradition, will be in the market for a new quarterback this offseason. As to which market that will be, only the brass in Florham Park knows and they still have a few months to come up with a plan.

Will the Jets use a high pick in April’s NFL Draft to select their QB of the future after whiffing on Sam Darnold with the third overall pick in 2018 and Zach Wilson at No. 2 in 2021? Or will General Manager Joe Douglas make some kind of deal, via free agency or trade, beforehand to bring in a veteran who is no longer wanted by his current team?

The answer should be both.

There are plenty of folks who believe that Gang Green would have made the playoffs this season if only they received average performances from their quarterbacks. Even if true, is that where you want to set the team’s ceiling? I thought the goal was to reach a Super Bowl, and it would have been highly improbable that the 2022 iteration would have gone on a long postseason run with some middling QB who simply didn’t suck as much as Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White did this season.

The two most brandished names in the media as possible veteran pickups for the Jets this offseason—San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo and Las Vegas’ Derek Carr—won’t even come with guarantees that next season will be the one that ends New York’s playoff drought of 12 years.

Garoppolo, who is considered the most likely to be obtained given his previous relationship with ex-49ers on the Jets staff, including Head Coach Robert Saleh and Offensive Coordinator Mike LaFleur (if they survive Black Monday), and deep knowledge of New York’s similar-styled offense, is always hurt, playing more than 10 games in just two of his six seasons as a 49er. A foot injury ended his 2022 campaign last month; meanwhile, his replacement, Brock Purdy, has performed almost as well in his stead.

With their investment in Trey Lance plus Purdy, the 49ers will surely pass on matching what Garoppolo, who signed a 1-year, $7 million extension last offseason, will command in this market. The Jets have some restructurings to do to finagle some extra cap space, but they can swing a short-term deal with an AAV in the mid-teens.

As for Carr, he’d only be an option if the Raiders cut him because they can’t find a trade partner before February 15, when his $32.9 million salary for next season and $7.5 million for 2024 becomes guaranteed. That’s an awful steep price to pay for a nearly 32-yar old who has one playoff game in nine pro seasons on his resume.

Las Vegas has held Carr out of the last couple of games to ensure that he won’t be damaged goods, but I have doubts whether he can still sling it like he used to—his deep passing efficiency has dropped precipitously to a 34% completion rate on throws that travelled at least 20 yards this season, per ProFootballFocus.com, and that’s with elite wide receiver Devante Adams at his disposal. His 60.8% overall completion percentage was the NFL’s third-lowest among the 33 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts (take a wild guess who was last at 54.4%).

Of course, the other pending free agent options, assuming Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and the Giants Daniel Jones aren’t going to be allowed to go anywhere else, won’t be fetching. There will be journeymen like Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, and, if cut to save the Falcons $14.5 million in cap space. Marcus Mariota. Ex-Jets Geno Smith and Sam Darnold are slated for free agency as well, but the odds that they’ll sign here are about the same as Bucs QB Tom Brady.

So even if the Jets do end up with one of these discard pile QBs, that won’t be enough to turn the franchise around. They’ll have to draft another one. And if that doesn’t work—because every Draft is a crapshoot--they have to keep drafting one until they get it right. At least with a Garoppolo-type in tow, there won’t be pressure on the rookie quarterback to immediately start.

The Jets made two terrible bets last offseason. They sold themselves on Wilson being able to take a leap from one of the worst rookie seasons the modern NFL had seen, and then they entrusted his development to an OC who had no experience in that department.

It all came crashing down on the Jets during their late-season collapse that saw them go from a playoff seed, to in the hunt, and finally to Sunday’s official elimination in a five-game span.

Like the film “Groundhog Day,” the Jets are doomed to relive the same end to every season over and over until they finally acquire a legitimate quarterback. As such, the Jets have no choice but to start over: Fire LaFleur to bring in a quality OC with experience in developing young quarterbacks, sign Garoppolo, trade Wilson for however high a pick they can get, and draft another QB in the first two rounds.