Jets Flying High Into Denver With Understanding That Success Can Be Fleeting
It’s On Saleh To Avoid Escalating Moore’s Trade Request Into An Unneeded Distraction
Jets fans are riding high over their team’s three-game winning streak that has them listed in a playoff slot at 4-2 going into Sunday’s game in Denver. And why not? It’s been 12 years since Gang Green earned a postseason berth, tied for the longest drought in franchise history, with only one of those intermittent seasons qualifying as a near miss.
On the one hand, it is clear that many analysts (including me) were wrong-headed in their assessment of the team’s prospects, as the league in general was vastly overrated. While New York still isn’t close to the elite class that includes AFC East rival Buffalo, they’re certainly better than the real dregs scraping the bottom of the various division standings.
However, a true Jets fan also knows that this team hasn’t accomplished anything yet. History has shown that it doesn’t take much to flip a game (too many to list individually), a season (2015), or even an era (Rex Ryan) from sustained success to Same Old Jets failure.
The good news is that we’re in a week-to-week assessment—the days of praying for the season to end with the maximum draft capital in tow should be in the rearview mirror. Beat the Broncos this week, in a stadium where the Jets haven’t won since 2010 and haven’t even scored a point since 2011, and the odds tick more to their favor in this marathon that’s just over a third complete.
Unfortunately, the side effect of New York’s rise means they won’t be treated by their opponents as an afterthought any longer. From the outside, it may seem like the Broncos (2-4) and $245 million quarterback Russell Wilson are struggling, but they are dangerous. Their defense is top-notch, surrendering the third-fewest points and fourth-fewest yards in the NFL. Only San Francisco sports a lower expected points allowed per play, according to rbdsm.com. Drilling down further, their pass defense, led by second-year cornerback Patrick Surtain II, yields just 4.5 yards per pass attempt, the league’s best.
Given the Broncos’ coverage ability on the back end and what they’ve seen from Jets quarterback Zach Wilson on film, they should be loading the box with extra defenders to stop the run and dialing up the pressure throughout Sunday’s affair. Denver has blitzed on nearly a third of their opponents’ dropbacks, per pro-football-reference.com, the 10th-most in the league. If such a prop bet exists, go with the over on that for Sunday.
For his part, Wilson just happens to be the NFL’s worst QB when under pressure, completing just 4-of-23 passes (17.4%) with 2 interceptions and 5 sacks taken in 29 dropbacks, per ProFootballFocus.com. Exacerbating the issue is that Jets Offensive Coordinator Mike Lafleur mostly restricts Wilson’s throws to obvious passing downs or when the Jets are behind. Besides creating the underlying condition where young wide receiver Elijah Moore was frustrated enough to cryptically tweet about his lack of usage and reportedly asked for a trade (Head Coach Robert Saleh originally emphasized that Moore missed Thursday’s practice to attend to a personal matter—sure, Coach. See below.), such a game plan puts Wilson under even more stress than needed, which isn’t conducive to producing sustainable drives nor the longer-term mission of developing the team’s young quarterback.
It's worked the past three games because the Jets were able to move the ball on the ground in second halves. Only New England has a higher EPA per play on rush attempts in that span and New York is atop the rankings for success rate on second half rushes, per rbdsm.com.
There’s no question that the Jets will continue to roll with what has been successful in the high altitude of Denver on Sunday. They will bet that their pumped-up defense can contain Russell Wilson, who has been limited in practice this week due to a sore hamstring, and clamp down on his big-play receivers. The offense will play it conservatively early before turning over the game to Zach Wilson in the second half to take a few shots.
Unfortunately, as is the required disclosure in the investment community, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Jets fans should understand what that means all too well.
Prediction: Broncos 19 Jets 13
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Regarding the Moore trade request that was reported by the NFL Network’s Ian Rappaport late on Thursday, I see he has already adapted to the ways of the diva NFL receiver in only his second season.
Some are calling it part of the business, but is this really the when and how he wants to go about it? So publicly and when the Jets are finally starting to turn things around? And it’s not like he’s an All-Pro—he caught 43 balls for 538 yards with 5 touchdowns as a rookie last season. Promising, but not Ja’Marr Chase lights out.
The Jets beat reporters surmised that this escalation caught the organization by surprise. Somehow, I doubt it, or at least they should have seen the writing on the wall. Moore, the team’s second-round pick (No. 34 overall) in the 2021 Draft. is fifth on the team in targets and sixth in total receptions this season. His name was called on for just two jet sweeps—he lost a total of four yards on those snaps. He can clearly see that the team is focusing more on Garrett Wilson over him, giving the rookie first-round pick more snaps from the slot while sending Moore on a seemingly endless run of fly patterns that have almost no chance of connecting.
With the Jets prioritizing the running game, LaFleur has been using bigger personnel packages such as two tight ends and/or two backs, with less of a need for a 5-foot 10 178-pound receiver. Moore played just 58% of the snaps and wasn’t targeted in Gang Green’s 27-10 upset in Green Bay last week, a game that saw Zach Wilson complete a whopping 10 passes while backup slot man Braxton Berrios took an end around 20 yards for a touchdown.
Such a conservative offensive identity isn’t going to get receivers paid at the level of Moore’s fellow Ole Miss alum and close friend A.J. Brown, who asked out of Tennessee this past offseason and was traded to Philadelphia. The Eagles then extended his contract for four years at $100 million. Brown and Moore share the same agent.
Some reporters are suggesting that Saleh deactivate Moore for Sunday, giving 2020 second=round pick Denzel Mims his first opportunity of the season. Given that the Jets reportedly have no interest in acceding to his trade request, that should be a last resort. The last thing the team needs at this juncture is a major distraction. Saleh is supposedly this fabulous communicator/player’s coach—this is where he earns his money, even if Moore is in the wrong.