Jets Fans Are Keeping Receipts on Saleh Too
Tis Easier To Blame Losses On Youth Instead Of Team's General Ill-preparedness & Lack Of Focus
For those of you who can’t understand why I’m so negative on the Jets…
Lost amid the mockery of Head Coach Robert Saleh’s declaration following Gang Green’s 24-9 debacle in the season opener versus the visiting Ravens on Sunday that he’s “taking receipts” for all those folks, not necessarily me, who disparage his club was a response to a question during his appearance on ESPN Radio’s The Michael Kay Show on Tuesday. Saleh was asked about a fourth-and-a-foot situation from New York’s 34-yard line near the end of the first quarter following a remarkable nine-yard catch-and-run by rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson.
Saleh said he vetoed the suggestion from Dan Shamash, the person he hired this offseason for this very purpose as situational football/game management coordinator, and opted to punt instead of attempting to go for the first down.
“I felt like our defense was playing really, really well, and I felt like we needed to try to flip the field, which I think we did,” Saleh said. “You know, you try to take in all the information you can get, and in that situation, it felt like defense was playing really, really well and I just knew we’d get the ball back quick, which we did.”
In other words, he ignored “the process” for which he had previously hyped as exceptional because his gut told him “the defense will get the ball back.”
That bias alone should tell you all you need to know about why he’s probably not the right guy for this job. As a young coach with a defensive bent, Saleh needed to partner with a quality Offensive Coordinator. Instead, he went with Mike LaFleur, who had never called plays at any of his prior gigs. It’s been easy for Saleh to convince LaFleur to go along with his conservative offensive principles since they worked together in San Francisco.
This, though, is 2022, where offense rules the NFL. As such, you need to use all four downs to keep possessions alive. Every time you give the ball back to the opponent, your expected win percentage declines.
Now, different models on fourth down decisions can vary, with Ben Baldwin’s 4th down decision Twitter account giving New York only a slight (0.7%) increase in expected win percentage had they tried for the first down. However, you have to believe the Jets’ own internal model would have been less of a toss-up for Shamash to advise Saleh in that direction with New York trailing just 3-0 at that point.
It wouldn’t have mattered. This is who Saleh is, as opposed to Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll, a renowned offensive thinker who played the percentages correctly by going for two points instead of kicking an extra point at the end of Big Blue’s 21-20 upset in Tennessee.
Sure, Daboll would have been pilloried by fans and in the press for not guaranteeing overtime with a kick had the Giants botched their two-point conversion, just as Saleh would have had to face the music if his team couldn’t advance the ball the necessary 12-18 inches on that fourth down. That’s the nature of the business.
That’s why you employ an analytics department in the first place, to help take the “feel” out of the equation. It’s not like Saleh is 14-4 as a Head Coach; he’s 4-14, and he’ll be on his way to many, many more losses if he can’t alter his philosophy to fit the modern game.
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Rewinding back to that spectacular Wilson play, where he caught a desperation pass from lead-footed quarterback Joe Flacco on the right sideline and then juked three Ravens defenders out of their jocks before falling just shy of the first-down marker, did anyone notice what Saleh said in his postgame comments?
Looking to excuse the Jets’ performance due to their inexperience at the skill positions, Saleh just happened to call out three players by name for mistakes: Second-year running back Michael Carter for an egregious drop of a fourth-down pass that should have been an easy touchdown, rookie running back Breece Hall for a red zone fumble…and Wilson for not lowering his shoulder enough to get to the sticks on that play.
Excuse me? I’m not sure Wilson knew exactly where he was after all that spinning when he tried to skip past that last Raven defender (linebacker Odafe Oweh) or that Wilson would have had enough force to fall further ahead than he got had he tried.
Even if Saleh’s criticism of Wilson was fair, what about all the other miscues committed by veterans? Why not mention his pair of free agent safeties, Jordan Whitehead and Lamarcus Joyner, who got torched for two long touchdowns (with Joyner also committing a dumb pass interference penalty on a Lamar Jackson bomb to Demarcus Robinson)? What about your Pro Bowl guard Laken Tomlinson, who was responsible for eight pressures of Flacco, tied for the most of any offensive lineman in Week 1, according to ProFootballFocus.com? What about Corey Davis’ third down drop? Or Tyler Conklin’s fumble that negated a first down? Or Flacco’s indecisiveness while stationary in the pocket?
No, it’s easier to blame losses on youth than on the general ill-preparedness and lack of focus on the details by the team.
Jets fans are keeping their own receipts showing that Saleh might be in over his head.
I agree that blaming the rooks for bad mistakes left the vets with get out of jail free cards. I doubt that they will get off during film sessions.
As to the initial point about failing to go for it on 4th at the Jets' 34 yard line, I agree with Saleh's decision. If it was closer to midfield, going for it might make better sense, but given the way the offensive line was playing, punting was the better option IMO. Their running game wasn't exactly scintillating at that point and the Ravens were stacking the box. I don't care what analytics might say. Going for it and failing or giving up a fumble would have been a disaster. The defense was playing well in the Ravens' end. The momentum swing with a failed attempt would have been against the Jets' defenses' ability to prevent a score. Comparing this call to Dabol's 2 point conversion is a false equivalency. The Jets were struggling and Wilson's valiant effort was all that almost saved a bad series. LaFleur's calls needed to be better as well. The Giants on the other hand had just scored a TD to bring them to point that a 2-point conversion would make a difference and their spirits were high.