Jets’ Difficulties In Covering Tight Ends Could Be A Factor In A Tight Game Versus Hated Pats
Much has been written about the elite play from the Jets outside cornerbacks this season, with rookie Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and D.J. Reed ranked fourth and seventh in the league at their position, respectively, per ProFootballFocus.com’s grading system (200 snap minimum). Thanks to their outstanding efforts, along with a stronger pass rush and the luck of the draw of facing a slew of backup quarterbacks, Gang Green has gone from 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt last season to sixth over the first seven weeks of the 2022 campaign.
With Zach Wilson turned into a game manager (only two quarterbacks who have played in the last two weeks had fewer pass attempts), the Jets’ defense has been the driving force behind their four-game winning streak. Having two lockdown corners for perhaps the first time since the days of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie (the current pair might be better) has opened up a world of possibilities for Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.
If there is one area within the pass coverage that hasn’t quite measured up, however, it’s New York’s ability to cover tight ends. Per CBS Sports, the Jets are allowing the sixth-most yards per game to opponents’ tight ends this season. Over this winning streak, a bunch of players who are hardly featured in their respective offenses have pinpricked the Jets’ defense. The good news is that New York has yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing tight end, with a 30-yard play to Miami’s Mike Gesicki in Week 5 the longest on the season. Still, allowing guys like Green Bay’s Robert Tonyan, Denver’s Greg Dulcich and Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth to pick up a combined 12 first downs to extend drives isn’t ideal.
Why is this concerning with the Jets (5-2) riding high into their showdown with bitter AFC rivals New England coming to MetLife Stadium on Sunday? Because you know Patriots coach Bill Belichick won’t be stupid enough to test Gardner ten times like the Broncos did to little avail last week. Denver picked up all of 16 yards off 4 receptions on those targets as Gardner was credited with three pass breakups to vault into the league lead for the season in that category.
With Mac Jones back under center for New England after missing three games with an ankle injury and then coming off the bench to finish up a 33-14 home loss to Chicago on Monday, look for them to feature the tight ends and running backs in Sunday’s game plan, taking advantage of Jones’ excellent accuracy on short throws and the softness of the Jets’ underneath coverage.
New York’s linebacking crew of C.J. Mosley, Quincy Williams, and Kwon Alexander are big hitters, but they haven’t been all that outstanding in either zone coverage or man-to-man—as the nearest defender, they have allowed an aggregate 66 receptions on 86 targets for 570 yards, according to PFF. Of course, not all of that damage came from tight ends, but New England surely understands where the Jets’ weak spot is.
Patriots tight ends Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith haven’t exactly set the world on fire this season, with 24 receptions for 291 yards between the two of them, but we’re talking about marginal impact here. Since no one expects this game to be a shootout (the over/under is 40.5), their job will be to keep the Patriots ahead of the chains on early downs and then to extend possessions with third-down receptions.
That might be enough. The Jets’ offense was devastated by the season-ending losses of their top offensive lineman (right tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker) and most dynamic playmaker (rookie running back Breece Hall) in Denver. As of this writing, WR1 Corey Davis (knee) looks doubtful for Sunday, though Elijah Moore is back in the fold after his tantrum over his (lack of) usage resulted in him missing the Denver game. Wilson has a new toy in running back James Robinson, who was acquired this week in a trade with Jacksonville, but the big issue is that Wilson continues to be more troubled by pressure than any other NFL QB.
With so little potential for explosive plays on either side, Sunday’s affair may just come down to whichever team can sustain drives. Obviously, negative plays (turnovers, sacks, and penalties) could prove to be a major factor in deciding the outcome, but they could also even out. The Jets, to their credit, were fairly clean in that department before adversity struck the offense in Denver. Meanwhile, I just don’t expect a Belichick-coached team to put up two stinkers in a row.
Despite their record and home field, the Jets (plus 2.5) are underdogs for an eighth straight week. Those that concoct the odds for this game must see slight edges that can tilt the balance in New England’s favor. One of them could very well be the advantage the Pats have in their short passing game.
Prediction: Patriots 19 Jets 13