Jets D Took Huge Step But Needs Boosts To Avoid 2023 Letdown
When a defense can boast three members on the NFL’s All-Pro team, that’s usually a sign it had a good year.
Two Jets (defensive lineman Quinnen Williams and cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner) earned First Team nods while linebacker C.J. Mosley was named to the Second Team. Gardner was the first rookie corner named to the First Team since Ronne Lott in 1981.
Obviously, the voters in the Associated Press poll were impressed with Gang Green’s defense’s rise from worst-to-fourth in both points and yards allowed in a season’s span. While it certainly helped that the Jets faced backup quarterbacks in six of their 17 games, they only surrendered 19.9 points per game in the other contests, which would still keep them in fourth place in the category (and if you took out the two punt return scores allowed and the meaningless safety at the end of the Miami finale, they’d rank second).
On the other hand, let’s not confuse this Jets defense with that of the 1985 Bears. Too often, when called upon to get an urgent stop, they wilted. The game-winning 51-yard touchdown pass to wide open Lions backup tight end Brock Wright on the snap after the two-minute warning in Week 15 was as damaging to New York’s playoff hopes as any play during the six-game losing streak to close the season.
Opposing tight ends befuddled the Jets defense all season. In addition, they were mediocre against the run and produced the fourth fewest takeaways in the league.
According to data scientists, defenses have higher degrees of variances than offense. Schedule plays a significant role in performance as does injuries. In addition to the heavy dose of backup QBs this season, the Jets core defenders were relatively healthy—among the starters, safety Lamarcus Joyner was the only one to miss as many as three games. Gardner and stellar CB mate D.J. Reed suited up for all 17 games, as did slot corner Michael Carter II.
As such, it would be imprudent of General Manager Joe Douglas to look at his defense and think to himself, “We’re good” for next season. Certain players will need salary restructuring, especially if the Jets and Williams come to terms on what will surely be an expensive extension of his rookie contract.
With that in mind, here’s a look at who should stay and who should go on the Jets defense (I did a similar breakdown of the offensive personnel here: Offensive Personnel As Much To Blame For Jets’ Incompetence As Departing LaFleur (substack.com) ):
Interior defensive linemen
Stay: Quinnen Williams, Sheldon Rankins (free agent)
Go: Nathan Shepherd, Solomon Thomas, Tanzel Smart
Even with Williams dominating a good chunk of his reps, I felt that the middle of the Jets defense was rather soft. Rankins had a decent year and is a locker room leader, but he played fewer than 50% of the team’s snaps and counted about $6.2 million against the 2022 salary cap (all cap numbers are courtesy of overthecap.com)—it’s questionable whether the Jets bring him back. Considering what was behind him, from the mistake-prone Shepherd to the mostly inconsequential Thomas, both of whom are also pending free agents, I’d lean towards yes on Rankins. Smart has never shown anything above being a preseason warrior. He’s worth a practice squad slot, nothing more.
Defensive ends/edge rushers:
Stay: Carl Lawson (restructure). John Franklin-Myers, Jermaine Johnson, Bryce Huff (free agent) Michael Clemons
Go: Vinny Curry
There’s a school of thought that says Lawson is an easy cut, allowing the Jets to save $15 million against the 2023 cap with minimal dead money, and then turning over the blind side edge rush duties to Huff, who is a pending restricted agent following an incredible season where he finished second in pressure percentage among 108 edge rushers with at least 150 pass rush snaps, per ProFootballFocus.com. From what I gather, the Jets believe that Lawson will raise his game next season commensurate to his hefty compensation in Year 2 of his recovery from an Achilles rupture while Huff’s effectiveness will diminish with a major increase in usage. If that’s the case, push some of Lawson’s money into a signing bonus, add voidable years--and then they can still re-sign Huff to a nice raise over the undrafted free agent deal he signed in 2020. Despite how many fans view him as vastly overpaid, JFM ($12.4 million 2023 cap number) continued his career as a PFF stalwart this season, finishing 28th in the league in the above pressure percentage category. Johnson and Clemons put forth some good reps on cheap rookie contracts, but it’s important to remember that neither is that young—24 and 25, respectively. Curry was inspirational in coming back from a rare blood disorder, but the veteran barely made a ripple against the run or pass—as a free agent, the numbers game is not in his favor.
Linebackers:
Stay: C.J. Mosley, Quincy Williams (free agent), Kwon Alexander (free agent), Jamien Sherwood
Go: Hamsah Nasirildeen, Marcell Harris
Linebackers and safeties may be deemed non-premium positions by analytics experts, but don’t tell that to Jets fans who witnessed countless explosive plays against thanks to the ineptitude from the Jets personnel in these areas. Mosley must have made All-Pro on reputation, because his impact on games certainly wasn’t worthy of such acclaim. Total tackles are a misleading stat, especially for a linebacker who routinely wraps people up five yards or more downfield--Mosley was exactly in the middle of the pack in PFF’s tabulation of run stop percentage. Given Mosley’s importance in quarterbacking the defense and outrageous cap table that was already restructured prior to the season, he’s not going to be cut. Neither will Sherwood, his backup, because a more experienced replacement would be costlier. On the outside, both Williams and Alexander were big-hitters but whiff-prone. Both were also often targeted in coverage, a major disappointment to Jets coaches and fans. Of the two pending free agents, I believe Williams is more likely to stick around since he’s Quinnen’s brother (hey, Douglas should use every tool he has to keep Q happy), though I’m not sure Douglas is going to be willing to spend the requisite amount to bring in an upgrade over either. Nasirildeen, a Douglas sixth-round pick in 2020, just doesn’t do enough to warrant a roster spot next season.
Cornerbacks:
Stay: Ahmad Gardner, D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II, Brandin Echols, Bryce Hall, Justin Hardee
This one’s easy—the corners were the Jets’ brightest lights this season, though I’m not sure what happened to Hall, who went from potentially serviceable to virtually unplayable in an offseason. Still, Echols was an adequate fill-in as a fourth CB, minimizing the dropoff in the few instances where Gardner or Reed needed to be taken out. Carter also deserves a shout here—in his second pro season, he allowed the fifth lowest opposing NFL passer rating among the 30 slot corners with at least 150 cover snaps, per PFF.
Safeties:
Stay: Jordan Whitehead, Tony Adams
Go: Lamarcus Joyner, Will Parks. Ashtyn Davis
Whitehead (17), Joyner (9), and Parks (4) combined to miss 30 tackles this season, putting them 19th, 29th, and 3rd, respectively, in the tabulations for PFF’s highest missed tackle percentage among the 49 safeties with at least 200 snaps. Throw in Davis’ three missed tackles on special teams and you can understand why Head Coach Robert Saleh was often seen shaking his head when his squad surrendered explosive plays. Joyner and Parks will be veteran free agents in a market where there’s usually a glut, so Douglas shouldn’t panic about losing either. I don’t know how much longer Douglas can justify keeping Davis on the roster—he let go of Giants contributor Jason Pinnock after the preseason so he could keep his 2020 third-round bust, which I knew then would be a mistake. The Jets apparently liked what they saw out of Adams in limited reps and he was just an undrafted free agent. As for Whitehead, I have to hope that this was just an off year, as his axing would generate a nearly $3 million dead money charge to the 2023 cap and his $7.25 million savings would likely be reallocated to new starters.
Specialists:
Stay: Justin Hardee, Thomas Hennessy
Go: Braden Mann
The Jets have been featured in a boatload of NFL Films Football Follies episodes in my lifetime, but I’d be hard-pressed to remember a single player who was responsible for as many bloopers in a single season as what Mann just went through. Whether it was falling down on kickoffs or blocked/shanked punts, Mann too often put New York in dire straits. He hasn’t even been credited with a tackle since his rookie season. Speaking of missed tackles, Hardee somehow was voted into the Pro Bowl and finished third in the All-Pro tally as a special teamer despite being involved in the aforementioned two punt return TDs against—there were three total in the NFL this season. Still, he, like Hennessy, is highly-regarded at his craft and will likely return in 2023.