Jets Brass Full Of Themselves By Overinvesting In Run Game

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One of the reasons why I haven’t hopped on the Jets’ hype train for 2023 despite the culture change brought on by the acquisition of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers is that the organization still employs Robert Saleh. The defensive-minded head coach entering his third season at the helm still worships the more conservative 49ers bible that relies heavily on a running game.

Hence, the team’s current dalliance with free agent Dalvin Cook, a declining and legally troubled (he allegedly offered his domestic violence accuser $1 million to exonerate him while maintaining his innocence) running back who was released by Minnesota in a June cost-cutting move. Cook is “a name” who probably still has some explosive plays in his legs, but his overall metrics (expected points added. rush yards over expected, etc.) from last season are concerning. He isn’t LaDainian Tomlinson.

My instinct is that Cook, who visited Jets practice on Sunday, is doing a Tyreke Hill impression, using the Jets to draw more money from the Dolphins so he can sign with his hometown team that plays in better weather while paying materially less in taxes. But I’ve been known to be wrong—having Rodgers take a monster pay cut to improve his supporting cast and then skimping on a guy he probably admires might be a bad look for management.

As if adding Cook to a crowded running back room that includes last season’s rookie sensation Breece Hall (who is reportedly still on target to return from last season’s torn ACL by Week 1—Saleh said on Sunday that he could begin practicing “in a few weeks”), Michael Carter, Zonovan Knight, and 2023 fifth-round pick Israel Abanikanda wasn’t enough, there’s another variable in the equation that could complicate matters: fullback Nick Bawden.

Bawden, a Detroit seventh-round selection back in 2018, appeared in nine games for New York two years ago. Per ProFootballFocus.com, he touched the ball once, on a 20-yard reception, in 57 snaps, mostly on running plays. PFF gave him solid marks for his blocking (and special teams work, though he failed to record a tackle in 80 combined coverage snaps), which is why the Jets brought him back for a low guarantee ($152,500) free agent contract after he missed all of last season due to a preseason injury.

It would be logical to expect the Jets to open up their early-down offense now that they have a very capable signal-caller in Rodgers as opposed to some of the NFL’s worst-rated QBs (Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Josh McCown, et al) over the last seven seasons, but that isn’t a given under this administration. Training camp reports have noted that Bawden has been getting a fair share of reps with the first team.

According to Jets X Factor, new Jets Offensive coordinator Nathniel Hackett was a proponent of utilizing a fullback in certain situations during his short-lived tenure as Broncos Head Coach last season and as the Jaguars OC in 2017-18. In between with the Packers, it’s important to remember that Head Coach Matt LaFleur took on much of the offensive responsibility, with Hackett mainly serving as a Rodgers whisperer.  

In its last season where it made data available, SharpFootballStats.com didn’t show much of a significant difference in success rates when teams ran plays out of “21” personnel packages (two running backs, one tight end) versus the more standard “11” package (one back, three wide receivers) in 2021. If anything, teams were slightly better throwing the ball out of 21 personnel. That kind of makes sense, since the addition of a fullback into the formation normally allows the defense to load the box further to stifle rush attempts while leaving it a bit more susceptible to play-action passes.

Still, if you’re the Jets, with large investments in Rodgers and a deep receiver group, should you be sacrificing a more dynamic skill position player like Mecole Hardman or Allen Lazard in favor of giving those snaps to Bawden? Is Bawden even worth a precious slot on a 53-man roster?

Neither makes sense to me, but then again, this is the Jets. Saleh gazes lustily at the 49ers, who employ Kyle Juszczyk, one of the league’s best fullbacks who garnered almost half the team’s offensive snaps last season. Saleh then thinks, “That’s what we should do! You win in this league by running the ball, playing great defense, and stealing games in the fourth quarter!” (Note to readers: Saleh has actually said these things at various points.)

No, you don’t, at least not consistently. The NFL is a passer’s game, starting with early downs in the first quarter. Running back success is primarily a function of a team’s offensive line, which doesn’t appear to be a Jets strength. The Chiefs just won the Super Bowl with a seventh-round rookie from Rutgers as their leading rusher. It’s why even the most elite running backs have been having a hard time getting paid lately. Until those at One Jets Drive gets this through their thick skulls, they will literally and figuratively be playing from behind.

There’s some hope that Rodgers will quickly gather that Saleh’s more conservative principles are flawed. And Rodgers doesn’t seem the type who at this stage of his career will allow frustrations to build without giving his input. Considering how much pressure Saleh and his staff are under this season, they might be more willing to listen.

Obviously, a lot can happen between now and the ballyhooed Opening Night matchup against Buffalo on September 11, and even then much of what the public views during preseason affairs will be irrelevant. Still, I am a bit curious if Bawden will be designated as one of Saleh’s “starters” who will be taking Thursday’s Hall of Fame exhibition off.