It Won't Count In The 2022 Standings, But The Jets Just Suffered A Devastating Loss
The calendar says it’s March, but the Jets suffered their first loss of the 2022 NFL season on Wednesday.
No, it won’t count in the standings, but the consequences of Kansas City trading brilliant wide receiver Tyreek Hill to Miami instead of New York will be felt like all those devastating defeats etched into the memories of Jets fans, maybe more so since Hill will be torching the Jets twice a year for the next four seasons.
The Dolphins surrendered five draft picks—a first (29th overall), a second, and a fourth in 2022 plus a fourth and a sixth next year—and, most importantly, won Hill’s heart through a 4-year, $120 million contract extension, with $72.2 million guaranteed.
The Jets were reportedly in it until the end. This was allegedly not a case where General Manager Joe Douglas refused to meet the hefty price tag. He planned for such an opportunity, pushing as much salary cap charges for his recent free agent haul into future seasons. Nor was Douglas dissuaded by Hill’s history of domestic abuse allegations (he pleaded guilty to an incident while in college and was never charged in the 2019 child-abuse investigation).
We haven’t learned what was the deciding factor for Hill—Florida’s no income tax versus New Jersey’s confiscation rate, Miami sunshine versus the bitter Northeast winters, or the current trajectories of the two respective football teams. The bottom line is that the Jets really wanted Hill—in fact, really NEEDED Hill—and didn’t get him.
For those who view Hill’s passing on New York as a blessing, understand the importance of playmakers in the current NFL. Aside from quarterback, they might be the most important asset a franchise can add. Would Josh Allen have made the transformation into an All-Pro QB if the Bills hadn’t traded for Stefon Diggs? How about Ja’Marr Chase’s effect on Joe Burrow’s leap this past season in Cincinnati?
Hill is not only in that category, he might be at the top of the list in terms of big-play capability. In six seasons, he has produced 62 touchdowns. Per ESPN, Hill’s 26 TD receptions on passes thrown over 20 yards downfield over the last five seasons are 10 more than his closest competitor, and his 42 touches where his top speed exceeded 20 mph are 25 more than second-ranked Giants running back Saquon Barkley.
At 28, Hill hasn’t shown many signs of slippage—he played all 17 games last season and, though he posted a career-low 11.2 yards per catch, he was still good enough to place third in the league in total receptions (111) and seventh in total yards (1,239).
Watch how Hill will suddenly change the narrative next season surrounding Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who posted below average expected points added per play metrics in his last two seasons. Having Hill’s ability to stretch the field and turn routine intermediate routes into big gains with yards after the catch will also open up more opportunities for a not-so-bad supporting cast, including second-year receiver Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki.
Now think about what could have been at MetLife Stadium, where Zach Wilson suffered through a Sam Darnold-like rookie season without enough real weapons. Douglas added a couple of decent tight ends in C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin, but no true WR1. Gang Green’s current depth chart lists Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Braxton Berrios, and Denzel Mims as their top receivers. That’s not nearly good enough. Hill would have been a game-changing acquisition.
Douglas will surely pivot to next month’s NFL Draft, where the Jets have picks 4 and 10 in the first round. Unfortunately, the receiver pool projects to be even more of a crap shoot than normal, certainly not as good as last year’s.
Sure, Hill wasn’t selected until Round 5 back in 2016, but ask any Jets fan these days how lucky they feel.