Inconsistent Devils May Be Forced Into Difficult Decision on Toffoli
The Devils social media team posted a short clip on Monday of wing Tyler Toffoli walking the streets of his Jersey City neighborhood. Sorry, but it didn’t inspire confidence amongst this Devils fan that Toffoli, who notched his team-leading 22nd goal of the season later that night to lift his club to an important 3-1 victory over visiting Seattle, will be here for the long haul.
I’m in no position to dispute that Toffoli enjoys his new digs after living in frigid Calgary the previous year-plus. I also realize that Jersey City has probably gotten significantly nicer than when I lived there 30 years ago. However, I can’t get out of my head my view of the city as a transient community.
Remember, the Devils traded for Toffoli last June knowing full well that he would be in the final season of a bargain 4-year, $17 million contract. In the deal, New Jersey General Manager Tom Fitzgerald surrendered underperforming wing (until this season) Yegor Sharangovich and the No. 80 overall selection in the third round of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, which originated from Columbus in the sign-and-trade of free agent defensemen Damon Severson. The Flames then used it to pick Russian wing Aydar Suniev, who has nine goals and nine assists in 25 games as a freshman at the University of Massachusetts.
Even with Sharangovich busting out in Calgary this season with 20 goals, this was a trade Fitzgerald had to make for a team looking to build on its surprising success in 2022-23. And Toffoli has been everything the organization has asked of him. Mostly riding shotgun with All-Star Jack Hughes on a team that often has trouble finishing, Toffoli has been the sniper that Timo Meier was paid to be but hasn’t come close to fulfilling, though to be fair multiple injuries have been an unfortunate obstacle.
Midway through Monday’s first period with New Jersey in a goal drought of over 80 minutes, Toffoli drifted into an opening in the middle of the ice on a power play rush. Devils captain Nico Hischier’s pass from the left corner found him, and then Toffoli took a half slap shot that was so heavy, the puck ricocheted off the right skate of Seattle’s Brandon Tanev, past the pad of goalie Joey Daccord, and off the right post before skipping across the goal line.
Though that one was deflected, Toffoli has also beaten some quality NHL goalies straight up from distance this season, a skill not many New Jersey forwards possess. However, with the Devils (26-21-4) still in a win-one, lose-one rut even as they’ve seen their health improve, it’s not too soon to wonder about Toffoli’s future.
As I’ve mentioned in prior posts, it’s not inconceivable that Fitzgerald pivots from a buyer to a seller by the March 8 trade deadline if his club continues its inconsistent ways. Per tankathon.com, New Jersey sports the league’s seventh-most difficult remaining schedule, and though Tuesday’s outing in Nashville isn’t considered one of the tougher ones on paper, the Devils have been awful (1-7-1) in the second half of back-to-backs this season. So despite their stronger two-way performances of late, there is no guarantee that it will be used as a springboard to going on the heater necessary for Fitzgerald to make further investments in this season.
By no means am I suggesting that Fitzgerald start the auction this soon, but I have to believe that Toffoli, who turns 32 in April, would be a prime rental should he reach the trade market. Who couldn’t use a playoff veteran with a Stanley Cup ring from the 2014 Kings when goals are at a premium? And if Fitzgerald doesn’t foresee a way that Toffoli will return next season, it would be asset management malpractice to allow him to walk away for nothing after the season.
Of course, I could be dead wrong in that the Devils are planning to fit Toffoli into their top-heavy salary cap sheet going forward. It would be fair to assume that he is going to ask for a major pay raise, as it could be his last opportunity to cash in at this level. I mean, if Ondrej Palat got a $6 million AAV for 5 years from the Devils in the 2022 offseason at 30, I could see Toffoli going for quite a bit more if he fully tests the market this summer.
The good news is that Fitzgerald should have a little bit of wiggle room this offseason, with CapFriendly.com listing the Devils’ 2024-25 committed payroll for 16 players at about $67.5 million. That’s nearly $20 million under the NHL’s projected cap. Other than Toffoli, Dawson Mercer is the only pending free agent whom I would classify as must-sign—and since he’ll be restricted, he will sign, eventually. Still, it could get tight when Fitzgerald tries to fill out the roster for next season,
And that’s not where the projections stop. A real cap crunch could come to bear in the ensuing seasons, which would force Fitzgerald into making some unpalatable non-hockey trades.
If I was given input, I’d be all for extending Toffoli. Would a 3-year, $21 million deal suffice? Who knows, maybe term will be just as important to Toffoli as AAV. Fitzgerald mentioned during a January 23 press conference that he has had “multiple conversations” with Toffoli’s agent, but my sense was that those were mostly of an exploratory nature. Fitzgerald has often said that his typical negotiations begin with trying to sell the player on the environment—where to live and the quality of life, the proximity to the rink, etc.
Hey, if Jersey City works for Toffoli, who am I to judge differently?